Host of ABC News Breakfast Michael Rowland and North America correspondent Carrington Clarke joined us for a Q&A on US politics.
Look back at our live blog as they unpacked the key results from the primary elections and how it could impact the future for Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
Key events
- What are some of the key results from the primary elections so far?
- Will Donald Trump be charged over the Mar- A-Lago raid?
- When will Donald Trump announce a presidential run?
- The future for Trump critic Liz Cheney
- How many Americans really support Trump?
- The threats to American democracy
- Interpreting the US election system
- What's the likelihood Trump will face charges over January 6?
- Who would take over from Biden?
- Didn't the US just have an election?
Live updates
By Shiloh Payne
That's all for our live blog
Thanks for all of your questions and a huge thank you to ABC Neews Breakfast host Michael Rowland and North America correspondent Carrington Clarke.
We hope you've learned something new today!
Until next time, you can keep up to date with the latest news on the ABC News website.
By Shiloh Payne
What are some of the key results from the primary elections so far?
Here's Michael Rowland to break it down:
The biggest result, in a national sense, was Liz Cheney losing the Republican primary in Wyoming. That tells us a lot about how much the Republican Party is in Donald Trump's thrall.
The former President has also had considerable success in other contests around the US, with Trump-backed candidates winning the party's nomination for a range of House and Senate seats, as well as for Governorship races. So, the primaries tell us Donald Trump, and 'Trumpism' is still a huge political force in the US.
In my view, another really interesting result happened only this week when Democrat candidate Pat Ryan won a keenly contested special election for a vacant House district in New York. It is a traditional 'swing seat', and Ryan campaigned heavily on maintaining abortion rights. So this, combined with voters in Kansas firmly rejecting a move to make abortion illegal in that state, suggests to me the recent Supreme Court ruling will very much be on the ballot come November. And this will favour Democrats in a big way.
By Shiloh Payne
Will Donald Trump be charged over the Mar- A-Lago raid?
Michael Rowland says the short answer is that no one knows.
The Attorney-General Merrick Garland (and certainly President Biden) are alive to the political consequences of any decision to charge Donald Trump.
That said, if the FBI and Justice Department firmly believe Trump has broken the law, they WILL move to prosecute the former President.
As Mr. Garland has repeatedly said, no one is above the law in the US. So, watch this space.
By Shiloh Payne
Why is Florida such a Republican state?
Why is Florida such a Republican State? Desantis, Marilago, Trump, etc. I get that rural Wyoming woyld be naturally Republucan, like own Nationals in our rural areas, but Florida isn't rural!
- Dr Alex Portnoy, NSW Central Coast
Hi Dr Portnoy,
According to Carrington Clarke, it wasn't always!
Florida was the key battleground state for the 2000 election and the centre of controversy when it was awarded to President candidate George W Bush.
But since then, it has become increasingly red. This year’s contest for Governor will be between the incumbent Ron DeSantis and challenger Charlie Crist who is running as a Democrat but is a former Republican Governor.
The slide to the right is a topic of continued debate. There has been demographic shifts with older retirees continuing to move in droves to see out their golden days basking in golden rays.
And although Latinos nationally are seen as leaning Democrat, in Florida many of Cuban dissent despise any hint of socialism and are attracted to the Republican push for small government.
By Shiloh Payne
When will Donald Trump announce a presidential run?
Is there a cut off date for Trump to announce a presidential run?
Michael Rowland says there's been a lot of talk around this in the US.
This is the subject of intense speculation in the US, and manages to fill hours of cable TV airtime and acres of newsprint.
Assuming that it's simply a question of 'when' and not 'if' he will run, the timing will come down to one man himself.
Yep, you guessed it. Only Donald Trump knows when he will announce, but I reckon he will hold off until after the midterms, just in case Republicans perform poorly. If he was to announce before the midterms, the elections would quickly become a mini-referendum on the former President.
A bad result for Republicans would not be a good look for Trump. But, watching how Donald Trump has operated over the past 6 years or so, don't be surprised if the mood suddenly takes him and he makes the big announcement next week!
By Shiloh Payne
How can a losing president just refuse to accept election results?
Why isn't there something in the constitution that says a losing president must accept the results of an election? Why aren't there written penalties for refusing to accept a decision.. especially after numerous court cases? - Jonathan
Hello Jonathan,
I think Michael Rowland likes your idea, here he is:
Why aren't there written penalties for refusing to accept a decision.. especially after numerous court cases? Now, what a terrific idea!
The constitution (as far as i now) is silent on the loser accepting the result. Up until 2020, it was simply political convention, and good democratic manners to ensure there was a peaceful transfer of power.
The unofficial penalty for a losing candidate refusing to accept the result (and we are talking about Trump here), would be his or her party facing a massive backlash at the next election.
But, with the Republicans on track to at least win back control of the House in the midterms, the political consequences will be pretty minor. Such is the state of the US democracy at the moment.
By Shiloh Payne
I see GOP written everywhere, what does it mean?
Michael Rowland: GOP stands for Grand Old Party and is simply another name for the Republican Party. The 'Old' is significant here, as the party first acquired the acronym back in the 1870's.
By Shiloh Payne
The future for Trump critic Liz Cheney
I saw the news that Liz Cheney lost her midterm election. Will this affect her place on the January 6 Committee?
- Sarah
Hey Sarah, Carrington Clarke says there's still time for Liz Cheney to make an impact at the hearings.
She’s not out yet!
She’s lost her primary which means she won’t be contesting this year’s mid-term election in November.
But she’s got her seat until her replacement is chosen then.
It was also likely the Committee was going to have to wrap up its work before the mid-terms anyway because the expectation was/is that Democrats will lose control of the House and the Republicans will shut it down.
But in the months they’ve got left, Cheney is promising more public hearings and revelations.
By Shiloh Payne
Who will hold more seats after midterms?
Who do you think will hold more seats in the midterms?
- Jordan
Hey Jordan,
I'll let Michael Rowland jump right into this one:
Looking firstly at the House of Representatives, the Democrats would need a major miracle to retain control. Republicans need to net gain of only five seats to win the House, so the main political task for the Democrats is to minimise the size of the potential 'red wave' heading their way.
Don't forget, the Democrats actually lost House seats in the 2020 Congressional elections even though Joe Biden convincingly won the White House.
The Senate is MUCH more interesting. It's a 50-50 split at the moment, with Vice-President Kamala Harris using her casting vote to keep the Democrats in control.
The Republicans of course need to flip only one seat to win the Senate back. BUT…several Trump-backed Senate candidates, like celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania are flaming out already, raising Democrat hopes the party may manage to hang on to the Senate. Even Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell has been lamenting the Republican 'candidate quality'.
So there is the very real chance of there being a split Congress next year. More division! Just what America needs..
By Shiloh Payne
Voting isn't compulsory in the US, will that change?
Assuming for a mad moment that they actually want to, what would be the actual constitutional, legal or procedural roadblocks to America taking on compulsory and/or preferential voting? - Damien
Hey there Damien, here's Michael Rowland's expertise for your question:
I'm not a lawyer or a constitutional scholar (maybe in my second career), but I am guessing if the Americans really wanted to bring in compulsory and/or preferential voting, they could.
Having covered four presidential elections and a few midterms, I can tell you compulsory voting would engender more engagement from US voters, and help make US politics less divided (well, maybe just a little bit).
It would also stop the electoral distortions involved in both major parties spending a lot of time and money physically getting preferred voters to the ballot booths. And preferential voting is, in my view, always more preferable and representative of a community's or nation's feelings than first-past-the-post.
If we could only lend the Americans the Australian Electoral Commission every couple of years, US politics would be in a much better space. Democracy sausages would be a big help too!
By Shiloh Payne
How many Americans really support Trump?
How many American's really support Trump? Are they just a vocal minority? Or is it the GOP congressman who support him who are part of the issue?
- Elaine
Hi Elaine,
According to our North America correspondent Carrington Clarke, Trump is very popular with his party and very unpopular with lots of people both at the same time.
Trump has faced two major electoral tests so they provide the best evidence for his popularity.
He won the 2016 election with just under 63 million votes. But that was less than opponent Hillary Clinton who had just under 66 million. He won because of the design of the electoral college system.
Trump lost in 2020 despite receiving more votes than he did in 2016.
He received more than 74 million on that occasion, but he was trounced by Joe Biden who received 81 million.
But in key races only thousands of votes separated the two men. If 44,000 votes had been different in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin, it would have been a tie in the electoral college.
Donald Trump clearly has a stranglehold on the Republican party at the moment and retains considerable national support. But he’s also very unpopular with tens of millions of people.
By Shiloh Payne
How are primary votes tallied?
How are primary votes tallied and have republican candidates committee to accepting results?
- Mike T
Hi Mike,
Here's Michael Rowland to explain:
The primary votes are counted by respective state election authorities. For the big races, the US networks also look at the count and make their projections.
BTW, I have watched many US election analysts over the years and none have come close to our very own Antony Green (although CNN's John King and his big studio TV comes close).
As far as I know, there have been no unsuccessful Republican candidates challenging the results. Lots of groaning and moaning, but no legal challenges etc.
By Shiloh Payne
The threats to American democracy
It seems like American democracy is under significant threat. Should we all worry or is this just another point in their history? I'm thinking about the state of the union just after Lincoln.
- Elaine
Hey Elaine, looks like you've sent in a good question for Michael Rowland.
Here's his answer:
I have been waiting for this question, because it is a good one. Yes, America has had challenging chapters in its history. The extremely volatile election year of 1968 (that saw mass riots and the assassinations of Bobby Kennedy and Martin Luther King) is often cited as one example.
But what is happening in the US at the moment should be deeply worrying. We still have a large proportion of Republicans still claiming Joe Biden 'stole' the 2020 election (he didn't), and as a result of the recent primaries we have quite a few of these 'election-deniers' winning the Republican nomination to contest state positions that will have authority over the conduct of the 2024 presidential election.
So, for arguments sake, if the Democrats won fairly again in 2024, there would be the very real prospect of these 'deniers' formally rejecting the outcome in their respective states. What happens then is anybody's guess. But it wouldn't be pleasant. So, in many respects, Democracy is very much on the ballot in the midterms.
By Shiloh Payne
The House of Representatives have a two-year term
So are there any strengths to the US system? If ever is in constant campaign mode and never dare say no to pressure groups or express honest thoughts about Trump, it doesn’t seem like it works well. So what’s the rationale behind this system of rolling elections?
- Tricia
Hi Tricia,
There's certainly always something going on in US politics!
Michael Rowland says there are some advantages to the two-year system.
There are both strengths and weaknesses in the US system. A big advantage of the two-year terms for House members is they have to stay ultra-attuned to voter sentiment in their districts. A big disadvantage is this means Congressman and women are perpetually fundraising to finance their re-election campaigns. They are barely elected before having to turn their minds to building a war chest for the next campaign. And that means a lot of US politicians are dependent on, and beholden to, the big lobby groups with deep pockets. The NRA is an obvious example, and that is why we are never likely to see sweeping gun reforms in a country where mass shootings are depressingly frequent. As to your point about politicians (i.e Republicans) expressing honest thoughts about Donald Trump. Well, as we have seen more often than not in the recent primaries, that is a ticket to political oblivion.
By Shiloh Payne
The likelihood of a second term for Biden
Will a loss of the house for Democrats make it more likely for Biden to not seek a second term? He would be a large lame duck - Harry
Hey Harry, Michael Rowland says a bad loss could certainly add pressure to Joe Biden's future plans:
A bad loss, say losing control of both the House and the Senate, is likely to fuel internal pressure for Joe Biden not to seek a second term. Even though they are only for Congress, the midterms are always viewed as a defacto, real time opinion poll on the sitting president. Also, if the Republicans win control of Congress they can, and will, frustrate Biden's legislative agenda, in that sense rendering him a lame duck. That is why the president has spent a lot of political capital recently getting some big-ticket items through Congress like his climate, infrastructure and health care legislation. Mind you, it will go the other way too. If the Democrats do better than expected and retain control of the Senate, Joe Biden would be emboldened. So, there is a LOT riding on the midterms for the US president!
By Shiloh Payne
Interpreting the US election system
America seems to be in never ending election mode, and looking in from outside their politicians never can deviate from party line in case they are voted out because there is an election of one kind or another coming up. Why was their system set up this way? - Patricia
Here's Michael Rowland:
Yes, that good old party line is as important in the US as it in in Australia. You do tend to see more breaking of the ranks though in the US Congress, with Republicans and Democrats routinely crossing the floor on big votes. But it usually ends very badly for these brave upholders of representative democracy. Look no further than the ten House Republicans who crossed the floor to vote with the Democrats to impeach Donald Trump. Of the ten, only two have survived. Four announced their resignations in the face of almost certain defeat. The remaining four, including Liz Cheney, fought and lost bitter primary contests. Stepping outside the party line, especially in a Republican Party heavily influenced by Donald Trump, is not conducive to a long and happy political career.
By Shiloh Payne
What's the point of midterms anyway?
A simple question really, and I probably could find this, however what is the point of these Midterms? Biden is the president, but then half-way through his term he can lose control of the house and senate and then becomes a 'lame duck? Seems a very odd system.
- Grant
Hey Grant, Thanks for your question.
What are experts for if not answering questions you could probably find the answer to yourself?
Here's Carrington Clarke to save you that search:
The American system was set up with a series of intentional checks and balances. The President is not all powerful. The three branches of government, the Presidency, Congress and the judiciary, overlap but are also independent.
The mid-terms give the voters a chance to rebalance the congress half-way through the Presidential term. If they’re happy with what the President is doing, and what congress is letting them do, then they could effectively reward them by voting for their party. Making them more powerful and making it easier for them to enact their policies. But if they’re not happy, they can vote for the other party.
Effectively handbraking the President and making it harder for them to go further.
The problem is that no matter who the President is, historically voters are never particularly happy with them at the mid way mark. The President’s party almost always goes backwards. Is that the system’s fault? Or just evidence voters are hard to satisfy?
By Shiloh Payne
What's the likelihood Trump will face charges over January 6?
How likely is it that Trump would face charges of sedition (in relation with the events of Jan 6)? Can he be expected on the hot seat any time soon? Would it be a televised event? — Kiren
Hi Kiren, it seems like you may have tuned into one of our January 6 hearing blogs.
Carrington Clarke says this is a hot topic at the moment.
This is one of the biggest questions in American politics right now. In theory, the Department of Justice and the Attorney General who leads it, should be making a decision on who to charge based on whether they’ve broken the law. But, it’s generally accepted that given Donald Trump’s status as a former President and his continued leadership role in politics, that the political environment must be considered.
Attorney General Merrick Garland has said he’d be watching the House select committee into the January 6thhearings carefully. He’ll be the one making the call on any charges relating to the attempted insurrection.
But Donald Trump is facing multiple investigations. The search of Mar-a-lago was part of a separate investigation into his handling and possession of classified documents. Garland approved that search.
Plus, Trump is multiple lawsuits in multiple states. It’s hard to know what consequences, if any, he might face.
By Shiloh Payne
What other states should we keep an eye on?
It's all about red, purple and blue, Carrington Clarke says:
In American politics, colours are handy short hand. Blue represents the Democrats and red for Republicans. So you have red states and blue states. And those states that are in the mix, are purple. Clever, no?
At this election, some of the purple-ish states are Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Texas.
They all have slightly different but fascinating races.
Georgia’s race for Governor is a re-run of 2016 with Republican Governor Brian Kemp up against the Democrats Stacey Abrams who’s running hard on getting more voters to the polls. As a Black woman, a victory for her would be a major historical event.
Pennsylvania has TV celebrity Mehmet “Dr Oz” running as a Trump backed Republican for the Senate.
A former TV anchor, Kari Lake, is running for Governor in Arizona as a Republican, fully subscribed to the Trump lie about the 2020 election.
And Texas sees Democrat Beto O’Rourke is campaigning on access to abortion and gun law reform in his battle to unseat Republican governor Greg Abbott.
Oh also, former Vice-Presidential candidate Sarah Palin could make a comeback to the national political stage, she’s trying for the Alaskan congressional house seat (they only get one).
By Shiloh Payne
The future for Bernie Sanders
Jack: Hi, what is the likelihood that Bernie Sanders chooses to launch a 2024 Presidential Campaign and if he were to do that, could it succeed where his previous campaigns did not? Given Biden's unpopularity is Sanders a better choice for a nominee? or is his age too much of an issue?
Hi Jack, thanks for your question, Michael Rowland says there's one key issue Bernie Sanders faces.
Here he is:
At the risk of sounding ageist, Bernie Sanders' age may be his biggest rival next time around. He would turn 83 just before election day in 2024. Mind you, Joe Biden will turn 82 just after the presidential election, but I have my doubts whether he will run for a second term. I think if Joe Biden does decide to step down before the next election, and his age is cited as a reason, the Democrats will be looking for a much younger candidate. So, that would rule Bernie out. He still has a large support base, particularly among young progressive voters, so he could very well play kingmaker in this situation.
