Chris Minns has been sworn in as NSW premier, but his government will likely need to work with the crossbench, with Labor now looking like it will struggle to get a majority in the lower house.
Several seats remain too close to call.
Look back on all the developments from the day.
Key events
Live updates
Over and out
By Paige Cockburn
Thanks for your company today.
To sum it all up:
- Labor is still stuck at 45 seats.
- They need two more for majority but it's looking less and less likely
- More than 65 per cent of the total votes have been counted
- Out of the four seats they were hoping to get across the line in, Labor's only chance remains in Ryde
- Terrigal and Miranda are looking like Liberal pick-ups and Kiama is set to be retained by now independent Gareth Ward
- There are still five seats in doubt according to the ABC's projections
Tomorrow Riley and I will join you again as new Premier Chris Minns visits Menindee in the far west, which experienced yet another fish kill event about a week ago.
To keep an eye on votes (which will continue to roll in until around 7pm) head here.
Perrottet lookalike
By Paige Cockburn
Na, Perrottet is the lost twin of Jacob Rees-Mogg.
- Jade
Earlier we asked for your thoughts on any Minns or Perrottet lookalikes.
Blog reader Jade came back with one for Perrottet - Brexiteer, former Tory minister, and now back bencher, Jacob Rees-Mogg.
I do kind of see it Jade...
Could we have an independent speaker?
By Paige Cockburn
Hi, in the case that Labor do not reach a majority, is it likely that an independent will become the Speaker?
- Angelina
Blog reader Angelina asked whether Labor might choose to appoint an Independent MP as speaker in the Lower House.
"Hi, in the case that Labor do not reach a majority, is it likely that an independent will become the Speaker?"
Thanks for the question.
It's definitely a possibility if Labor doesn't reach majority because if they appoint one of their own as speaker, they effectively lose one vote off the floor (unless there's a tie breaker).
Independent for Lake Macquarie Greg Piper could be tapped, as he has held the positions of assistant speaker and temporary speaker in recent years.
He just told me he hasn't been invited to be speaker but he hasn't ruled it out.
Considering his history, he said there's a "certain sense" he could be asked.
The last independent speaker in NSW was Richard Torbay between 2007 and 2011. Prior to that it was all the way back in 1913.
Holsworthy update
By Paige Cockburn
Any updates on Holsworthy? I know it's still leaning Lib but now less than 300 votes. Is Antony picking up any late surge vibes for Labor or is this seat gone for them?
- Jon
We've got a question below from blog reader Jon about the seat of Holsworthy in Sydney's south west.
Despite the 5.5 per cent swing to Labor, it's still safely in the Liberal column.
Some fresh counting from an early voting centre (EVC) has just finished...
Teal winner wants to dump teal label
By Paige Cockburn
Judith Hannan is the first independent candidate with the backing of the Climate 200 organisation to win a seat at this election.
Shes's so far ahead by more than 1,600 votes in her seat of Wollondilly.
However she has moved to distance herself from the "Teal" label.
"I'm called everything, I'm called Teal, I'm called Liberal," she said.
"It is just political propaganda."
Chris Minns gives out mobile number to parents in ED
By Paige Cockburn
In the wee hours of this morning the new Premier and Health Minister visited Westmead Hospital.
During the midnight visit they spoke to doctors, nurses and paramedics about their experiences working in the middle of the night in a busy Western Sydney emergency department.
Mr Minns says he gave out his mobile number to some families he spoke to who were waiting with their kids in the Westmead children's emergency department.
"I was able to give out my mobile and I have been contacted by a couple of them this morning.
"It was a really instructive visit."
The Premier said he planned to keep showing up to hospitals and Health Minister Ryan Park said he would make one unannounced visit each week to a hospital.
"One of the keys to our success (in the campaign) is that we didn’t have a huge buffer between us and regular people in the community," Mr Minns said.
"We want to keep that approach to public life."
Questions
By Riley Stuart
You're a curious bunch, aren't you
Brian has asked:
I noticed that Liverpool and Cabramatta, while still held by Labor, both saw a swing to the Lib/Nats. Can anyone offer a reason for this movement against the general tide of the election?
I'm snowed under, so asked state political reporter Ashleigh Raper about this. She pointed out both seats had retiring Labor MPs. Might have had something to do with it.
Anthony Frisina has asked:
Any theories on what explains the big swing in Camden. Is it just normal variation or is there a clear reason it moved so decisively?
Camden has a history of pretty big swings. Check out this from Antony Green's election preview: "Liberal Chris Patterson was elected by a 22.8 per cent swing in 2011, and easily re-elected in 2015. Patterson retired at the 2019 election Liberal MP Peter Sidgreaves was easily re-elected despite a 10.7 per cent swing to Labor."
Other things you can factor in is changing demographics in this outer Sydney seat and the fact One Nation polled more than 13 per cent of the vote there.
B has asked:
How close do the votes have to be to trigger an automatic recount? Is this even a thing for state elections?
Threw this one to Antony Green to answer. He says: "There are no automatic re-counts. Any candidate can request a re-count. They need to state reasons why it is necessary. That usually requires more than its close and the candidate wants to roll the dice."
LV has asked:
Why is there a delay in a normal working day?
I hope you're not talking about our blogging?! If you're referring to the counting of votes, remember:
- It's been hard to find people to do it
- Tight seats mean scrutineers checking every ballot closely
- Sometimes we have to wait for an entire area to be counted before the tally is updated (they don't necessarily to it every hour or whatever)
Helen has asked:
What's Perrottet's advice for Minns? I searched the article but couldn't find it.
Helen you should have been reading this morning! It was that he should factor in a weekly date night with his wife.
StriderGlider has asked:
The member for Kiama was suspended by a Legislative Assembly vote after he was charged with historical sex offences. If the electors of Kiama re-elect him, with the full public knowledge of those charges against him, would it then be improper for the Legislative Assembly to overrule the will of the electors of Kiama by voting to suspend him again, unless something new comes to light?
Interestingly enough, Chris Minns just said at a presser that he'd have more to say about this issue if and when the seat is declared.
Ben has asked:
What are your thoughts on Holsworthy? It's been a while since we have had an update :D
It's lovely this time of year.
ABC predicts Nationals will win Upper Hunter
By Riley Stuart
The ABC is predicting Nationals' MP Dave Layzell will retain the seat for the party.
Labor has had its eye on this one, and made a big play for it at a 2021 by-election. It's staying with the Coalition for another four years at least!
Minns on Terrigal and Kiama
By Paige Cockburn
At his presser he said things in Terrigal were "a bit of a rollercoaster" but the latest info wasn't all that positive.
"The last briefing I got was that it would be harder for Labor to win that seat."
Fresh votes have just come in for Terrigal, with Liberal incumbent Adam Crouch ahead by 87 votes.
Mr Minns was more optimistic about Kiama.
"We are still very hopeful and I think in the commanding position to win that seat."
Independent incumbent MP Gareth Ward has taken the lead in the south coast seat with almost 80 per cent of votes counted.
The former Liberal was suspended from the parliament last year after being charged with indecent and sexual assault offences.
He denies any wrongdoing.
However Mr Minns hinted Labor might suspend him again if he wins in Kiama.
"I'm going to make a decision and an announcement when the poll has been declared," he said.
Surgery waiting list taskforce announced
By Paige Cockburn
The new Premier and Health Minister Ryan Park are talking to the media at Liverpool Hospital to announce a taskforce to tackle the elective surgery waiting list.
There's currently about 100,000 people on the list, 17,000 of whom are waiting longer than clinically recommended.
Mr Park says health department secretary Susan Pearce will work on the taskforce which will report to him in three months.
"This is surgery that people need to reduce the pain and suffering they experience," he said.
"I want those 17,000 people on that list to know their Health Minister is thinking of them from day one.
He said he wants the list of 17,000 people overdue for surgery brought back to zero.
"Piece by piece, bit by bit we have got to try and take some pressure off emergency departments," Mr Park said.
"It is something I will have an obsession about."
New Zealand established a similar taskforce which reported back last year.
It recommended giving GPs more ability to diagnose without the need for a specialist and greater use of the private sector.
More questions
By Riley Stuart
Keep 'em coming.
Laura has asked:
What results do you think were impacted by boundary changes? For example, do you think Winston Hills was affected by the change for or against the Liberals?
It's really hard to say Laura, because every seat is so different. Let's use your example of Winston Hills (it used to be called Seven Hills, but got a new name this election). Antony is the full bottle on this stuff, so I'm referring to his guide here.
After the redistribution, the Liberals' estimated margin in Winston Hills was 5.7 per cent, compared to 6.4 per cent for what would have been Seven Hills at the 2019 election. So basically, the redistribution didn't help them. They've held it despite that.
So many factors are at play here, though. Take Kogarah, for example. A redistribution cut Labor's margin from 1.8 per cent to 0.1 per cent. But Labor saw an 18 per cent swing to it this election, and you'd have to say that is, in part, to the fact its candidate is the high-profile Chris Minns.
Ryan S has asked:
Hey there, Want to be First home buyer here and that’s the reason I voted labour this election (due for their policy). Was wondering your thoughts on if and when labour will get their policy through the parliament and will it be back dated to the election day or even today? Thanks
Ryan I've asked state political reporter Ashleigh Raper to field this one as I've got no idea. She says: "Parliament is not scheduled to resume until May. At this stage Labor hasn't indicated it's a priority piece of legislation in the first sitting weeks. And it's unlikely it can be backdated pre-legislation passing parliament."
Gus has asked:
Hello Paige, hello Riley, Thank you for the coverage. Can you provide an overview of upper house and what it means for the overall numbers/balance of power in the upper house please.
The upper house votes take weeks to count. You can check the results here. Go all the way to the bottom to see the list of people who look likely to be re-elected so far.
Doug has asked:
I had the displeasure of watching Sky News coverage on election night - but I was also following ABC coverage on my phone. The total number of seats Sky news was calling was behind the amount the ABC was reporting. What exactly is the difference with the ABC election computer? Does it factor things that other networks simply don't?
If we told you, Doug, we'd have to kill you.
Daniel has asked:
When will we get some serious live results for the Legislative council as the ABC site is very hard to read and confusing. What will the Greens results look like?
Daniel, have you seen the LC ballot paper?! Counting takes weeks. When the below-the-line votes are counted, the site will update. As it stands, The Greens have secured two seats in the upper house.
Upper Hunter
By Paige Cockburn
Any updates on upper hunter? I know the seat is put at likey NAT but is there any chance that could change?
- Will
It's been over 24 hours since there's been any results for this seat.
Chief elections analyst Antony Green says he will chase up the Electoral Commission about what's happening here.
The Nationals incumbent Dave Layzell is leading Labor by 948 votes but only 48 per cent of the vote has been counted.
The seat has never been won by Labor.
What's the go in Terrigal?
By Paige Cockburn
Any update on Terrigal? No new numbers since yesterday.
- Antony fan
I've just had a chat to chief elections analyst Antony Green about this.
As 'Antony fan' says below, we haven't seen any fresh votes come through for this central coast seat today.
Green suspects they are currently counting ballots from the early voting centre in Woy Woy and won't release votes from there progressively. Instead they will report those votes in one go, once they're all counted.
The other thing to remember is that when a seat is as tight as this one, scrutineers will be extra cautious and counting will slow right down.
Gareth Ward takes lead in Kiama
By Riley Stuart
Independent incumbent MP Gareth Ward has taken the lead over his Labor challenger in the seat of Kiama, as counting continues in a tight NSW election race there.
The former Liberal, who was suspended from the parliament last year after being charged with indecent and sexual assault offences, is on track to retain the seat.
Mr Ward maintains his innocence.
NSW has its first out lesbian minister
By Paige Cockburn
New environment minister Penny Sharpe has made history today.
The mum of three is the first out lesbian minister to serve in any NSW government.
Back in 2005 when she she joined the Legislative Council she became the first openly gay woman to serve in the NSW parliament.
At the time she said she wanted to improve access to education and eliminate discrimination against gay parents.
At an ACON panel ahead of this year's election, she said she believed the LGBTQI+ community would come under renewed "attack" in the next four years.
She said it was Labor's position that the Anti-Discrimination Act in NSW was "not fit for purpose" and needed urgent reviewing.
"Progress is too slow."
An update on Miranda and Ryde
By Riley Stuart
Two very close seats in different parts of Sydney. The Liberals are ahead in one, and Labor has its not in front in the other.
Political lookalikes
By Paige Cockburn
During the election campaign many voters remarked Dominic Perrottet and Chris Minns shared a lot of similarities.
They are both men around the same age, with children, and shared common ground on a range of issues.
During one of the leaders' debates, Mr Perrottet remarked Mr Minns had better hair than him.
triplej newsreader Jack James has compared the men to pop icons Shawn Mendes and Harry Styles...
Let us know if you see the resemblance or maybe you have a better suggestion?
What y'all reckon about a hung parliament
By Riley Stuart
Here's what some of you think about the prospect of Labor needing to work with the crossbench.
Josh says:
Hung parliament was definitely my preferred option (despite voting for a major party since no sensible independent in my electorate). A bit of negotiation will be good for Labor, see the gaming policy for example. A minority government tends to be a centrist government (I think?)
Mary says:
Hung parliament is no drama. Perrottet didn't have a majority either.
Cameron says:
From a practical point of view, the real impediment to passing legislation, regardless of whether Labor hold a majority in the lower house, will be the Legislative Council.
Adrian says:
Hung parliament is a double edged sword, we get great progress usually but makes the next election more difficult, but the last federal hung parliament also had huge infighting soooo... loving the coverage so far though!
Scott says:
I think that in some ways a hung parliament is the best result. After all, the political parties are not part of the constitution, they are just a bunch of people who decided to (mostly) vote the same way. Having them have to make their case for the more sensitive issues is not necessarily a bad thing. A hung parliament with a single cross bencher deciding the vote is however potentially bad.
Gareth Ward appears in court
By Paige Cockburn
At the same time as his lead in Kiama firms up, Gareth Ward has appeared in court.
The incumbent MP has pleaded not guilty to sexual assault charges at Nowra District Court.
He's charged with four sexual assault offences and one count of common assault.
He calmly pleaded not guilty to all charges this morning.
Outside court he said he was confident he'll be able to prove his innocence.
"There's a lot of things I'd like to say about this case but I think as you know I'm prohibited from saying what I'd like to say.
"This matter is something that has been dragging on for the last two years, it's been a really difficult two years.
"Some people in the media have totally trashed the presumption of innocence.
"I'm looking forward to not just winning this case, but winning the election as well."
The matter is set to return to court in Sydney next week, where Mr Ward is expected to try and split the charges so they can run as separate trials.
We have a new Premier
By Paige Cockburn
The papers are signed and the scones have been eaten (by the lucky few who got some).
The new ministry is officially sworn in.
Following the ceremony Premier Chris Minns and Deputy Premier Prue Car said a few words.
"There's a huge responsibility on our shoulders and work starts today," he said.
"Counting is continuing in many key seats and we don't know the final composition of the next parliament but my team and I are ready."
