This Sunday’s morning coffee precedes a newly rare occurrence. The Detroit Lions play a 1 p.m. game on a Sunday. It’s just the second time all season, and it’s Week 7. As it’s currently 5:57 AM and I’ve got a lot of thoughts about today’s matchup with the Minnesota Vikings, the coffee is definitely flowing.
This will be Detroit’s first time as an underdog in 2024. It’s the first game without dominant EDGE Aidan Hutchinson, too. First divisional game as well, and it’s a big one. A Lions win in Minnesota would elevate Detroit into the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Sure it’s early in the season, but it would still be fantastic to seize the top spot and make someone else come and try to take it. That’s what Dan Campbell is all about, and that’s why Detroit loves him.
But this one will not be easy…
Why I think the Lions will win
I am a believer, without any substantive data to back it up, that in the first game after a team loses a superstar like Hutchinson, the supporting players rise up and compensate well. I think back to a Texans team that lost prime J.J. Watt in Houston’s fifth game of the season, only to come out the next week and bag four sacks and force four takeaways. Lions DT D.J. Reader got one of those sacks–the only one he would record that season.
Heck, the Lions already did that once this year when All-Pro center Frank Ragnow missed the 40-point eruption over Seattle. It shouldn’t be relied upon because I’m sure the long-term data would tell me I’m off-base, but it happens enough that it’s feasible it could happen again.
This Lions defense certainly has that capability. The Vikings don’t have a lot of tape on Pat O’Connor in Detroit, or Isaac Ukwu or Trevor Nowaske. They both played decent enough in Dallas after Hutchinson’s injury to think they can impact this game on a key play or two. It doesn’t take much to facilitate a big play from safeties Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch, who might be the best playmaking tandem in the league–especially when playing 2-high looks, which figures to be the base look against an explosive Vikings offense.
It helps that the Lions have scored over 40 points in consecutive games for the first time since before William Clay Ford bought the team over 60 years ago. Granted they played a soft Dallas team in Week 6, but Jared Goff and the offense have been completely dialed in the last two games.
Goff has a nice history playing against Minnesota (4-2 in Detroit), as well as lighting up the creative chaos that is the Brian Flores defensive scheme. Detroit scored exactly 30 points in both meetings last season, both Detroit wins. Goff keeps proving he’s reliable in big games and will find the proper target at the right time, a big key to nullifying the exotic Vikings defense.
It won’t hurt that Minnesota’s best second-level run defender, LB Blake Cashman, is out with an injury. Jahmyr Gibbs should benefit, though David Montgomery could also find a little more running room, too. Both are capable of putting up 75 yards and a touchdown apiece.
What worries me about the Vikings
Playing an unbeaten opponent in their house is never easy, not even in Week 3. It’s Week 7, more than long enough for the Vikings to quiet any naysayers about the validity of their unblemished record. They’re fifth in scoring offense, fourth in scoring defense. They won in Green Bay a week after blowing away a Texans team that would be the No. 2 seed in the AFC if the season ended today — and could very well stay there.
This is a very good football team on both sides of the ball. More to the point, they have offensive and defensive playmakers that can match Detroit’s; exceedingly few teams can lay claim to that. Worse, the Vikings are coming off their bye week. They’re fresh and also had time to prepare more in-depth for a specific opponent in Detroit they desperately want to beat.
Everyone expected the offense to be pretty good, even with journeyman Sam Darnold at quarterback. Justin Jefferson is a legit All-Pro weapon at wideout, and Aaron Jones is a very effective and versatile running back. Jordan Addison is a dangerous No. 2 wideout, with Jailen Nailor an effective role player in support. Minnesota’s offensive line isn’t to Detroit’s level, but the Vikings unit features two really good tackles and a strong center (sound familiar?).
It’s the defensive playmaking from the Vikings that has surprised me. They’re a very well-conceived unit, with smart addition Jonathan Greenard nicely balancing Patrick Jones, the best pass rusher most Lions fans have never heard of. They’ve combined for nine sacks. LB Andrew Van Ginkel is a perfect fit in Brian Flores’ defense, capable of playing in coverage or rushing the passer from any pre-snap alignment. He’s got three sacks and two pick-sixes as a variable catalyst who is very difficult to read. Their corners have been more reliable in coverage this year, and Minnesota might have the best-tackling secondary in the NFL. They’re the best first-quarter defense in the league, meaning they’re good at playing with a lead and turning up the pressure even more.
I do think Flores’ defense has its vulnerabilities. It’s a unit that relies heavily on takeaways and offensive mistakes. Jared Goff has done well in playing smart and avoiding the no-scope-360 errors. As noted above, the Lions ground-and-pound with the offensive line leading Gibbs and Montgomery is a great solution for attacking it. Minnesota is ripe for the picking with a good No. 2 TE like Brock Wright and a deep shot to Jameson Williams against the blitz.
That was true against Tampa Bay, too. You might not want to remember Week 2, but that was a game where the Lions–specifically OC Ben Johnson–decided not to take advantage of any of their matchup advantages. Detroit lost that one to a Buccaneers team that isn’t close to as potent as Minnesota because the Lions offense got away from its identity.
I need to see Johnson prove to me he’s not going to make that mistake again. If Jared Goff throws over 40 nickel-and-dime times in this one (he threw 55 times for just 307 yards vs. TB), that plane ride back to Detroit is apt to be a solemn one.
Minnesota also happens to have found itself a kicker in rookie Will Reichard. The former clutch Alabama kicker is perfect on the season, including a 58-yarder. The Vikings punter, Ryan Wright, is very good at preventing returns and pinning teams deep in conjunction with a well-coached coverage unit. Read as: no free yards from special teams.
Final score prediction
Like most everyone, I think these are the two best teams in the NFC. Detroit playing this game without all the recently injured pass rushers, and Minnesota playing at home coming off a bye week, is enough to make me think the Vikings will prevail. Barely…
Vikings 29, Lions 27
