After a well-deserved bye week to the second round of the postseason, the Detroit Lions are back in action on Saturday night. The top-seeded Lions host the Washington Commanders in the NFC Divisional Round matchup at Ford Field.
Ah yes, prime-time games make the morning coffee a requisite shot in the arm. Not that the excitement of the Lions being favored by more than a touchdown to earn a second straight trip to the NFC Championship game isn’t invigorating in its own right. It’s the largest point spread the Lions have ever been favored by in a postseason game in the Super Bowl era, and for good reason.
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Here’s what I’m thinking about tonight’s game as I try to thaw out my frozen toes and prep for a long day of waiting for Lions football.
Why I think the Lions will win
Detroit was the best team in the league in the regular season, period. No team scored more points. No team came close to the Lions in total point differential (+222). Washington finished +94 and got over half that in blowout wins over Carolina (40-7) and Arizona (42-14) in the first eight weeks. Since that time, the Commanders are only +27 and that’s with a 23-point win over Tennessee, the league’s worst team. Since September, their only win over a team that finished with a winning record was a 36-33 win over the Eagles in a game where Philly’s starting QB, Jalen Hurts, didn’t play. That win, by the way, went a long way in giving the Lions some breathing room to be the top seed, so thanks for that, Washington…
Detroit’s creative, multifaceted and diversely highly skilled offense is a major mismatch for the Commanders. Getting David Montgomery back, even if it’s just a limited capacity, only compounds the distinct advantage for Detroit. As long as Jared Goff is his typical sharp self and the run blocking is effective, the Lions should be able to move the ball effectively and also hit explosive plays (10+ yard runs, 20+ yard passes).
Washington has no answer for Jameson Williams deep, and if they try to stop that, St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs and even Tim Patrick and Brock Wright can devour them in the layer between the LBs and DBs. The Commanders have a very good LB group (more on them later), but they’re a lot better at going forward than playing out in space. I’m very confident Ben Johnson will understand how to pick that apart, even if it does create some lost plays along the way.
Defensively, the welcomed return of Alex Anzalone made a huge difference in erasing the sain of some ugly performances down the stretch in his absence. He and Jack Campbell together are about as good as a team can hope for in corralling a mobile quarterback who can throw. Having quick, smart, playmaking safeties in Brian Branch and All-Pro Kerby Joseph behind them, and in conjunction with them as well, means the Lions control the middle of the field. It fosters a lot of confidence that the Detroit defense will win the war, even if Daniels and friends do capture a few battles.
Typically, I worry about teams coming off a bye week into the postseason. And while these are unchartered waters for the Lions franchise, they couldn’t ask for a better captain at the helm than Dan Campbell. His approach won’t allow for complacency or losing an edge. He and his assistants have had extra time to self-scout and tweak a little with a healthier roster, and ample time to prepare for a Washington team. These Commanders are playing a radically different style of team on both sides of the ball than they played in Tampa a week ago. The lack of carryover game plans could really help Detroit in this one, too.
What concerns me about the Commanders
First things first. Washington beat a good Buccaneers team in Tampa last weekend. That needs to be respected; the Bucs, after all, hung one of the two losses on the Lions this year. The Commanders have proven they are capable of winning on the road and handling the pressure.
It was Washington’s first postseason win since 2005, but it wasn’t the first playoff rodeo for coach Dan Quinn. He once helmed a Falcons team to within a half of winning the Super Bowl, and he’s got a veteran staff around him. The Commanders might be somewhat precocious, but they’re going to be well-prepared and probably won’t be in awe of the moment.
Jayden Daniels certainly looked ready. The likely Offensive Rookie of the Year (Raiders TE Brock Bowers could/should win) can both run and pass, a combination the Lions defense has struggled with at times. He’s much more in the vein of Kyler Murray or Lamar Jackson than Josh Allen or (ghost of the past) Justin Fields. Daniels runs to run, with designed rushes. The Commanders do a good job of the RPO and giving him an easy option while also stressing the playside linebacker or safety (often both).
Daniels tends to make the correct decision, and quickly. He’s got a legit No. 1 receiver in Terry McLaurin, a guy who can make contested catches and present himself as a big target. Austin Ekeler is still a dangerous receiver out of the backfield and a capable outside/cutback runner.
Strategically, Washington is adept at long, time-consuming drives. They ranked 3rd in plays per drive and 6th in time of possession. Given that the Lions offense is a major issue for the Commanders defense, the ability to grind out a 10-play, 66-yard drive that ends in a touchdown is a huge asset. They’re good in the red zone, too–7th in TD percentage, with Daniels running for six on his own.
Their overhauled defense has speed at all three levels. The linebacking duo of Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu might be the best the Lions see all year. Luvu gets little fanfare, but he’s arguably the best A-gap blitzer in the league, and he tackles well in space. He and Wagner are both good pass rushers and finishers, and Washington does a good job of setting them up with a strong line that can give them creases. Rookie RG Christian Mahogany will need to be ready and able in his first playoff appearance.
Rookie slot CB Mike Sainristil quickly proved one of the best at his position. His quickness and toughness could be an effective foil against Lions All-Pro Amon-Ra St. Brown — if such a thing exists.
Other than kicker, Washington also comes close to the Lions across special teams. Yes, even at punter; Tress Way is a top-10 all-time punter in both gross and net yards. Jack Fox is the best, but Way isn’t far behind, and the Washington coverage unit is top-shelf. Read as: free yards are unlikely in this one for Detroit.
Final score prediction
The bottom line is simple: if the Lions play at a B-level or better, Washington would need a near-miraculous game to beat them in Detroit. If the Lions aren’t sharp from the get-go, Washington has the ability to pull it off. They don’t know they’re not supposed to win, and that makes them dangerous; Campbell’s Lions have worn that hat very nicely and I think the Commanders will too. But not today…
Lions 33, Commanders 24
