Back for another year, it’s time to kick off the Lions mock offseason series for 2023.
The mock offseason covers not just a mock draft, but also personnel decisions on existing Lions free agents, potential roster cuts, outside free agent signings and (of course) the draft.
Here’s an example of one of the mock offseason scenarios from last year, one that wound up nailing both Aidan Hutchinson and Jameson Williams to the Lions in the first round:
As with last year’s series, each mock offseason represents a potential path Lions GM Brad Holmes and the team can follow, not a recommendation or endorsement of any course of action. It’s not a prediction either, just a look at how the Lions might approach the offseason.
Lions free agents to re-sign
The Lions will begin the offseason with around $18 million in salary cap room. The exact figures aren’t set yet, but it figures to be somewhere between $18 million and $19.5 million (before offseason transactions).
The first order of business for the Lions is to pay their own. Detroit has 18 unrestricted free agents, plus four restricted free agents and seven exclusive rights free agents.
In this scenario, the Lions re-sign three of the four restricted free agents. The fourth, CB Saivion Smith, suffered a horrific neck injury, and I don’t expect him to play football again. All seven of the ERFAs return; they all earn the league-minimum salary for 2023 with the ERFA tag. Notable in this group are TE Brock Wright, OG Tommy Kraemer and RB Craig Reynolds.
Then there are the unrestricted free agents. Last year, the Lions focused heavily on keeping players they felt were cultural fits and important pieces. This scenario follows that path.
Re-signed
WR DJ Chark
S DeShon Elliott
DL John Cominsky
DT Isaiah Buggs
RB Jamaal Williams
CB Will Harris
LB Josh Woods (for special teams)
In this scenario, two players who could very well be in the Lions’ plans wind up getting bigger offers from other teams:
OL Evan Brown
LB Alex Anzalone
Players under contract to cut/restructure
If the Lions make those moves in who they retain, they’re going to need to free up some funds to add free agents from the outside.
DT Michael Brockers was a healthy scratch for most of the 2022 season. It’s an easy decision to choose to not pay Brockers $10 million next season. It will cost Detroit $3.75 million in dead money, effectively freeing up over $6 million in cap cash.
It’s a more difficult decision with RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai. Injured all of 2022, “Big V” played well in 2021. Vaitai costs the Lions $12.45 million in cap room in both 2023 and 2024. Releasing the vet would free up over $6.5 million in 2023 and $9.2 million in 2024. Vaitai’s recovery progress from back surgery is unknown at this time.
In this scenario, the Lions essentially choose between which higher-priced defensive end to keep: Charles Harris or Romeo Okwara. Harris played six games and chipped in one sack in 2022 before getting hurt. Okwara played in five after returning from Achilles surgery in 2021 and picked up two sacks at the end of the season.
With Aidan Hutchinson, James Houston and Josh Paschal all returning for their second seasons, Cominsky capable of playing DE and Julian Okwara still on a bargain rookie contract, dumping one vet contract here seems certain. Releasing Harris saves just over $4 million; Okwara would free up $7.5 million but adds quite a bit more dead cap. The choice this time is Romeo Okwara.
Free agents to sign
Cornerback Jamel Dean is the primary outside target in this hypothetical offseason. He’s been an above-average cornerback with his speed, length and willingness to tackle. Dean has shown he can play press-man coverage on the outside, notably against bigger receivers. He’s a premium talent and would represent the only big-ticket free agent signing in this scenario.
Bengals LB Germaine Pratt doesn’t get a lot of national acclaim on a loaded Cincinnati defense, but he’s one of the best coverage LBs in the league. In fact, he was PFF’s top-graded LB in coverage in 2022. The 26-year-old can line up at any off-ball LB spot and at 250 pounds, he provides some stoutness on off-tackle runs.
DE Larry Ogunjobi is coming off an up-and-down season with the Pittsburgh Steelers, and that’s been the story for most of his six-year career spent across three AFC North teams. He’s someone Lions special assistant John Dorsey knows well from their time together with the Browns. At his best, Ogunjobi is one of the best A-gap pass rushers in the league and a conscientious run defender. When he doesn’t have his best game, well, that’s why the Lions also re-sign Isaiah Buggs and John Cominsky in this scenario.
The low-cost veteran flyer here is Rams S Nick Scott. A seventh-round pick by Brad Holmes and Lions assistant GM Ray Agnew with the Rams back in 2019. He was in a little over his head as a full-time starter in 2022, but Scott is a skilled run defender with short-range coverage skills and considerable experience as a special teams standout. He can be a bridge while injured starter Tracy Walker recovers from his Achilles injury.
2023 NFL draft, first round
No. 6 overall (from Rams): Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
No. 18: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Bresee was once the No. 1 recruit in the nation and he often showed why at Clemson. An attack dog of a 3-tech with zero chill to his game, Bresee can win over either shoulder with quickness and brute strength. He’s got some minor durability questions (torn ACL in 2021, illness in 2022) and he’s not a guy who anchors against the run well, but his potential to dynamically collapse the pocket from the inside puts more snarl in the Lions impressive young defensive front.
Richardson is the lottery ticket. Too many folks focus on his lousy early season at Florida, where he was erratic and his inexperience shone brightly. Richardson played significantly better as he got more experience and confidence in his teammates and understanding of the offense. He offers Cam Newton-like size and physical ability as both a deep passer and a runner. Detroit badly needs a No. 2 QB with some upside, and Jared Goff’s presence means Richardson won’t need to play before 2024 at the earliest. I suspect Richardson will be long gone by the 18th pick come April, but in this scenario he was on the board.
Rest of the draft
Second round, No. 49 overall: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
Second round, Vikings pick (Hockenson trade): Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas
Third round: JL Skinner, S, Boise State
Fifth round: Henry Bainivalu, RG, Washington
Sixth round, Broncos pick: Bryce Ford-Wheaton, WR, West Virginia
Sixth round, own pick: Andrew Forsyth, C/G, Oregon
