The Hunter is poised to play a significant role in deciding Australia's next government when counting starts at the close of polls on Saturday.
Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce has spent the final two days of the campaign in the Hunter electorate promoting Nationals candidate James Thomson.
The seat, held by Labor on a slim 3 per cent majority, could mean the difference between either side being able to form majority or minority government.
Labor has never lost Hunter, but party sources have grown increasingly nervous about an electorate left vacant by long-time member Joel Fitzgibbon.
Anthony Albanese picked former Mount Thorley coal truck driver and five-time Olympian Dan Repacholi last year to run for the seat, bypassing the rank-and-file.
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Both sides predict the result will be "very tight", a scenario all but inconceivable when Mr Fitzgibbon held Hunter with a 12.5-point margin just six years ago.
Mr Thomson said on Friday that the Hunter outcome would be "close" and "every vote really does matter".
Mr Repacholi said it was "too hard to tell" whether the Labor vote was holding up.
"Some days have been great, other days have been good, and other days have been just OK," he said.
"There's too many people who aren't taking flyers to really get a good judge. There's well over 50 per cent taking nothing and 25 per cent taking everything."
The seats of Newcastle and Lyne are considered safe bets for Labor and the Nationals respectively, but both parties will keep one eye on Paterson, the scene of fractious campaigning between Labor incumbent Meryl Swanson and Liberal challenger Brooke Vitnell, and Shortland.
Labor holds both on margins which halved in 2019 and now lie in marginal territory.
University of Newcastle political scientist Jim Jose said Hunter would be a key seat for both parties.
"I think the National party can feel confident that it's got a good chance of wresting the seat off Labor, but it's not a foregone conclusion," he said.
"Between 2019 and 2022 there's been a lot of rethinking, and Labor's put up a candidate who's got his feet firmly planted inside the mining community.
"Whether that's going to be sufficient to hold the seat.
"Joel Fitzgibbon had a very strong personal following.
"Now that he's not standing, there's a good chance for a reasonably competent candidate to pull votes away from Labor.
"I think it's going to be a line-ball decision in Hunter. Preferences are going to determine how it plays out."
He said One Nation, which attracted 21.6 per cent of the vote in 2019, had a "slim possibility" of challenging for the seat on preferences.
"I suspect not. I suspect the race will come down to Labor and the Nationals."
He predicted "many people" would ignore the minor parties' how-to-vote cards, which preference the Nationals above Labor in Hunter.
National opinion polls have the race tightening between Labor and the Coalition. Each needs 76 seats to form majority government, but both have options on the crossbench if they fall short.
Labor would look to the Greens' Adam Bandt and independent Andrew Wilkie and the Coalition to Bob Katter and Rebekha Sharkie.
Professor Jose said any "teal" independents who unseated Liberal MPs could side with Labor.
"Why would they put back in a government that's done everything against what they're standing for, unless the government puts in writing an agreement," he said.
"I would say they will give Labor a chance to deliver."
Labor has remained ahead of the Coalition in national polls, but Professor Jose said this would not necessarily translate into the Opposition winning a majority of seats.
"I suspect neither major party is going to get over the line. If I was to make a prediction, I would probably run with Labor being in the better position to form government if it's in a minority situation.
"Regardless of the polls, looking at the way the leaders have performed over the past six to 12 months, I suspect that Labor have a chance of ruling in their own right. That's a longer shot.
"I think the least likely outcome is for the Morrison government to be elected in its own right."
