The seat of Port Macquarie is setting the stage for the first contest of its kind at a New South Wales election this century, putting a spotlight on mounting divisions in the state's Coalition over policy and identity.
The current member for the Mid North Coast seat, Leslie Williams, was voted in for her third term as a member of the National Party in 2019.
But she defected to the Liberal Party in September 2020 during the so-called koala wars, which saw then deputy premier John Barilaro threaten to split the Coalition.
While the premier at the time, Gladys Berejiklian, called his bluff and the Coalition remained intact, the stunt inadvertently saw Port Macquarie get its first ever Liberal member in state parliament.
Ahead of this month's election, the Nationals declared Port Macquarie's Mayor Peta Pinson as their candidate to run against Ms Williams, and in doing so ignited the first three-cornered contest with a coalition incumbent in 24 years at a NSW election.
When Ms Pinson's pre-selection was announced at a community rally opposing a government-funded upgrade to the town's breakwall, Ms Williams said she would not be deterred from her campaign amid the "political games of the National Party".
"It's probably the worst-kept secret in Port Macquarie that the mayor was going to run for the Nationals," Ms Williams said at the time.
"[That's] despite the fact that she stood as an independent and vehemently told the community she was an independent candidate when the mayoral elections were on just 12 months ago."
Ms Pinson said she joined the National Party only a short time prior to being pre-selected.
"[The seat] was won by the National Party … so while [Leslie Williams] is the incumbent in the seat, it is being recontested by the National Party," Ms Pinson said.
"Regional Australia is represented by the National Party. The Liberals represent the metro and city areas. That is the deal of the Coalition and always has been."
NSW Nationals chairman Andrew Fraser said Ms Williams should have chosen to sit on the crossbench, calling the Liberal Party's decision to accept her request for membership a "treacherous act".
"We see [Port Macquarie] as our seat. We were disappointed the Liberal Party accepted her as a member … and the decision was made by both the central council and the local branch [of the National Party] to run [a candidate]," he said.
The NSW Liberal Party did not respond to a request for comment.
Ms Williams said she ultimately left the party because its policies, particularly in relation to koala protection, no longer aligned with her community, given Port Macquarie has one of the largest koala populations in NSW.
The koala wars erupted in 2020 over proposed planning regulations to protect the animals, including increasing the number of protected tree species that opponents said would restrict farmers from felling trees on their own land.
Fresh battles over koala policy have arisen since then, including over the related debate on the future of the native forest timber industry.
"This community is very clear about its position … and I wasn't going to stand by and not really express their views when it came to koala protection and the protection of the koala habitat in our local community," Ms Williams said.
Ms Pinson has previously said she believed the government was making "incredible moves to protect the iconic species" and the biggest risks to the koala population were "motor vehicles or dog attacks as opposed to decimation of their habitat".
At a Meet the Candidates event last month, Ms Pinson said she was "not convinced" climate change was man-made, based on "alternate information" in now-debunked claims that NASA attributed climate change to the Earth's "solar orbit".
Deputy Premier Paul Toole said he supported his candidates being outspoken and that "you need to take in all sides" on issues such as climate change.
"We know that there is climate change but … the climate is always changing … as a party we continue to have a balanced view," Mr Toole said.
"Peta Pinson is a great Nationals candidate … she will make a great representative in the NSW parliament."
History of three-cornered contests in NSW
The Coalition agreements that govern the relationship between the two parties have essentially stopped them from running against each other, in part to avoid doubling the campaign costs of two major conservative parties running in the same seat.
ABC chief election analyst Antony Green said the Coalition also avoided them at a state level due to the risks posed by optional preferential voting.
"The fear of the damage optional preferential voting would do in allowing the Coalition vote to combine has always caused the two parties to avoid head-to-head contests," he said.
Mr Green pointed to the 1996 by-elections where the Nationals failed to win the Southern Highlands from the Liberal party and also lost Clarence to Labor, despite not being challenged by a Liberal candidate there.
"There was great unhappiness in the Liberal Party because the Nationals had spent so much money to win the Southern Highlands and on the same day lost Clarence."
Clarence stayed in Labor hands at the 1999 election, this time in a three-cornered contest where the failure of Liberal Party preferences to flow to the Nationals allowed Labor to retain the seat.
Since then there have been attempts to completely ban the option of head-to-head contests, but some flexibility remained.
In Port Macquarie, which has traditionally been allocated as a Nationals seat, the door has once again been opened to a three-cornered contest.
"Leslie Williams switching party has sort of ended the agreement," Mr Green said.
"The Nationals are refusing to accept that the seat is now a Liberal-held seat … [they] view Port Macquarie as one of their seats and are determined to run."
A three-cornered contest is also being held in Wagga Wagga on March 25, but is held by an independent on a comfortable 15.5 per cent margin.
Mr Green said the Nationals' complicated relationship with Port Macquarie dated back to losing the seat in a similar fashion when Rob Oakeshott resigned from the party in 2002 to become an independent, winning the seat as one the following year.
Mr Oakeshott quit the party citing ideological differences and disagreements over the party's policies and staunch conservative values.
"When Rob Oakeshott resigned he made particular criticism of internal parts of National Party in the local area," Mr Green said.
"I think those disputes have continued and certainly the fact that Leslie Williams defected over the koala issue and its involvement with development on the North Coast has some influence there, I suspect."
Changing demographics loosen Nationals' grip on 'country' towns
Once a small regional area, Port Macquarie is now one of the fastest-growing towns in NSW, attracting students and young families in want of a sea-change.
"Compared to most National-held electorates, Port Macquarie is a very urban seat and the Liberal Party has wanted to run in the seat in the past," Mr Green said.
At the last federal election, the National party suffered a 9.6 per cent swing against it in the seat of Cowper, against a teal independent.
At a state level, the Nationals have lost five seats since the 2015 election and currently hold just 12 of the 93 seats in the lower house.
The party's historical hesitancy to take a progressive position on climate change has begun to sour in some regional areas, particularly those impacted by drought, fires and floods.
On the North Coast, the Greens won Ballina from the Nationals in 2015, and in 2019 the neighbouring Nationals seat of Lismore was won by Labor.
Port Macquarie is considered a very safe seat with 63.6 per cent of first preference votes going to Leslie Williams as the Nationals candidate, and 23.2 per cent to Labor at the last election.
"It was a pretty overwhelming conservative seat and probably will remain that way," Mr Green said.
But Labor's preferences may end up deciding the winner.
Labor candidate Keith McMullen's How to Vote card does not designate any preferences, while the Liberal and National candidates are both directing voters to preference the other party, which Mr Fraser said was mandated by the Coalition agreements.
Mr Green said the end result might depend on how dirty the fight between the Coalition parties was.
"The more that the battle becomes a personal dispute the less likely it is that Liberal and National voters will direct preferences and maintain Coalition unity."
