Aston voters will go to the polls on April 1 to choose Alan Tudge’s replacement, but a key decision about the seat will be made much sooner.
“I’m confident ultimately that we can win, but I think it’ll be a tough fight and I think we go into it clearly as the underdogs,” Opposition Leader Peter Dutton said on Monday.
More claims to underdog status in Aston can be expected before the vote to replace Mr Tudge, who has held the seat since 2010 and which has been represented by a Liberal MP for 20 years before that.
It has not been since 1920 that an incumbent government has won a seat from an opposition at a by-election.
Sooner than test Mr Dutton’s leadership, the issuing of writs by Speaker of the House Milton Dick on Monday will test the Victorian Liberal Party as it seeks to reconnect with sections of the electorate that abandoned it in droves in May: Women and ethnic voters.
Field of three?
Census data shows Aston’s voter base has a large ethnic population, including voters of Chinese descent, and its residents are less religious than those in the average federal seat.
The Liberal Party’s standing with the Chinese community was badly damaged by the increasingly belligerent rhetoric of the former Morrison government towards China, including under Mr Dutton, who as defence minister less than a year ago famously said Australians should prepare for war.
Mr Dutton, a leading figure from the Liberals’ national right whom polling shows is not popular in progressive Victoria, insists he will campaign in the seat.
Aston has a two-party-preferred margin of 2.8 per cent after Mr Tudge withstood a more than 11-point swing against him on primary votes at the May election.
Mr Dutton has advocated the party preselect a woman but also that the decision be left up to local members.
One candidate likely to be favoured by locals is Emanuele Cicchiello, who taught at a local Christian school and who hails firmly from the party’s conservative wing.
But it seems increasingly likely that he will not figure in the final field as attention instead focuses on a possible woman successor for the seat, which would narrow the field to three.
An outsider, Cathrine Burnett-Wake, who lost her spot in the state upper house after nine months because she was defeated in a preselection by a member of a controversial Christian church, has warned the party is at risk from infiltration by extremist religious groups.
“Ordinary Victorians need to awaken to the threat,” she warned in her valedictory address to the Victorian upper house.
That message might not win support in Aston’s local Liberal branches, which are largely controlled by members of the party’s conservative wing. They were steadfast in support of Mr Tudge even as a scandal over his affair with a staffer, Rachelle Miller, grabbed headlines and forced him to stand aside from the Morrison ministry.
Decision day
State party bosses, under pressure to preselect a modern Liberal face, might welcome the expedited election timeline presented by the Speaker’s decision on Monday.
It leaves little time for a vote by local branches and makes it more likely a decision will fall to the party’s administrative committee. Reportedly, the committee will choose a candidate on Tuesday night.
The group has, however, also been accused of being controlled by warring factions centred more on personalities than political philosophy.
Two highly qualified professionals from diverse backgrounds have attracted enough support within the Liberals to be regarded as the front-runners.
Roshena Campbell, a barrister and newspaper columnist, has the backing of a key factional heavyweight, who was named as potentially eyeing off a return to politics at the byelection, Josh Frydenberg.
Critics say Ms Campbell would be vulnerable to accusations of having been parachuted into the outer suburban seat, in which Labor will be represented by breast cancer survivor and former union official Mary Doyle.
Ranjana Srivastava, an oncologist who writes for The Guardian, meanwhile has the backing of another key figure in Victoria’s factions, the former Liberal premier Jeff Kennett.
Nominations for the seat close on March 9.
