A former senior strategist to a Tasmanian Liberal premier and the rightwing powerbroker Eric Abetz has declared “certain forces” in the Liberal party are planning to dump the outspoken moderate Bridget Archer in the run-up to the next federal election.
Brad Stansfield, a veteran backroom adviser and now partner at Tasmanian lobbying and public relations firm Font PR, has revealed what he’s categorised as a “politically crazy” move on his regular podcast that canvasses political and business news in the state.
In the latest episode, Stansfield says the combination of Archer’s independent positioning on a range of policy issues, coupled with a recent Facebook post by the Liberal MP highlighting recent a visit to Bass by the teal independent Kate Chaney, had “caused a bit of a stir” within the Tasmanian Liberal party.
In addition to Stansfield’s contentions on the podcast, Guardian Australia has learned that some local Liberal party branch members raised objections to Archer’s independently-minded positioning during a recent electoral meeting in Bass.
Since the change of government last May, Archer has made it clear she wants to work constructively with the Albanese government on policy that benefits her constituents rather than line up with the reflexively negative political strategy being pursued by the opposition leader, Peter Dutton.
Archer has crossed the floor to support elements of Labor’s 2030 emissions reduction target, endorsed Labor housing policies and voted with the government in a censure motion against the former prime minister Scott Morrison.
During the censure motion last November, Archer was scathing about Morrison’s controversial decision to secretly appoint himself to multiple ministries. “I do not accept any of the explanations put forward by the former prime minister for his actions, and I’m deeply disappointed by the lack of genuine apology or, more importantly, understanding of the impact of these decisions,” the Tasmanian Liberal said during chamber debate.
This week, Archer lined up with the veteran Liberal moderate Russell Broadbent to endorse treasurer Jim Chalmers’ efforts to start a conversation about the fiscal sustainability of generous superannuation tax concessions.
Archer, who held her ultra marginal electorate of Bass despite against the significant anti-government swing that took out several Liberal moderates in safer seats last May, has argued consistently that the party needs to abandon culture warring and return to basics, such as better community representation.
Shortly after the election rout, Archer said she remained a member of the Liberal party rather than cutting ties and sitting on the crossbench because Liberal values “mean something to me.
“I will fight to protect them and to restore them,” Archer said last May. “That’s why I still remain within the party. So that means that I have to play my part in that and I have to be prepared, as do others, to stand up and say so as we move forward.”
Some of Archer’s colleagues in Canberra are aware of the factional positioning and the local pushback. But colleagues stress Archer maintains a solid bedrock of support from local branch members and voters in her electorate, and she also enjoys the backing of the Tasmanian premier, Jeremy Rockliff.
Stansfield said on the podcast he wasn’t going to “name names” when it came to the Liberal party forces lining up against the high-profile moderate.
But he alleged a move was on against “the most electorally successful Liberal member for Bass since [the Howard-era minister] Warwick Smith 25 years ago – the woman who, it could be argued, won Scott Morrison the winning seat in 2019 … they want to have her replaced”.
Stansfield said some of Archer’s recent positioning had been a provocation to internal party critics. But he also said the Liberal party dumping her would was not only “politically crazy”, it would be a seminal call, because it would demonstrate the party was no longer a broad church.
“It’s hardly a broad church when you seek to excommunicate someone whose views you disagree with,” Stansfield said on the podcast.
Stansfield said there was “a bit of chat” that Archer could cut ties with the Liberal party, but he saw no evidence of any move on Archer’s part to defect. Stansfield said if there was a move to dump her ahead of the election, that could “propel her” to become an independent.
“If Ms Archer was to voluntarily leave the party and become an independent … I think she would struggle to get re-elected … but if anyone was foolish enough to force her out, I think we could be in a very different situation where the sympathy vote could well propel her to winning the seat as an independent.
“We’ve all seen in the last election those seats are very winnable in those circumstances. That would, in my view, as a Liberal party member, be a very foolish thing to do. I hope it doesn’t happen.”
Stansfield was formerly chief of staff to Tasmanian premier Will Hodgman, and adviser to Abetz and the former finance minister Matthias Cormann.
