ORKNEY was the local authority area that voted against independence by the biggest margin at the 2014 referendum, while Shetland produced the fourth largest margin for No.
It’s perhaps inevitable that a single constituency containing both island groups will be exceptionally tough terrain for any pro-independence party, and indeed Orkney and Shetland was one of only three constituencies that the SNP didn’t win in their post-indyref landslide of 2015, and thus one of only three they’ve never won at any point in history.
However, right-wing commentators down south are deluding themselves when they interpret this lack of success for Yes and the SNP as meaning that Orkney and Shetland represent some sort of Surrey beyond the Pentland Firth, a bastion of true Britishness that can be relied upon to walk away from an independent Scotland and keep all the oil in London’s hands, thus foiling the Nats’ cunning plans.
In fact, 67% of the population of Shetland report having an exclusively Scottish national identity, which is slightly higher than the equivalent figure for the Scottish population as a whole. The Northern Isles may oppose independence, but it’s exceptionally unlikely that they would vote to leave an independent Scotland.
The apparent Unionism of the islands appears to really boil down to concerns that a self-governing Scotland would be dominated by Glasgow and Edinburgh and that the distinctive voice and needs of Orkney and Shetland would not be heard or attended to.
An opportunity therefore exists for the SNP to prosper electorally if they can allay those concerns by demonstrating that the Northern Isles are a genuine priority for them.
They’ve already made good progress in that regard, most notably by pouring massive resources into their campaign for the 2019 by-election in the Scottish Parliament constituency of Shetland.
They were even castigated by Unionists for spending more on that campaign than on the EU referendum, but the effort paid handsome dividends. Their vote share increased by nine percentage points, and the Liberal Democrat majority was dramatically slashed from 44 points to 16.
That result was built on a few months later in the Westminster general election, when the SNP came within just eleven points of victory in an Orkney and Shetland seat that has been Liberal Democrat-held or Liberal-held since 1950.
Better still was to come in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, when Tom Wills, who had been the SNP’s candidate in the by-election, further cut the deficit in Shetland to just seven points.
On the list vote, the SNP actually defeated the LibDems in Shetland by eight points, and even in Orkney the LibDems only had a two point advantage over the SNP on the list. The SNP are therefore left beautifully placed to finally break through and win parliamentary representation in the Northern Isles in any election when they are performing well nationally and when islanders are disaffected with the LibDems.
But that time may not be now. With the SNP’s national vote having slipped significantly since both 2019 and 2021, and with the LibDems apparently confident that they can persuade the anti-SNP vote to coalesce behind them in the seats they already hold, the primary objective for the SNP candidate Robert Leslie may be to ensure that the advances of recent years do not go into full reverse, and that his party still emerges from this election looking like credible local challengers to the LibDems for the future.
