On a sunny morning in the village of Barton-le-Clay, Emma Holland-Lindsay, the Liberal Democrat candidate in next month’s Mid Bedfordshire byelection, is arguing that her party is best placed to overturn the huge Tory majority in the seat. “I think we’re the frontrunners to beat the Conservatives,” she insists.
Timothy Fox, listening politely on the doorstep with his wife, Christine, gives a wry smile before replying: “Funny, Labour was here yesterday and said exactly the same thing.”
In this sprawling constituency, which is home to small towns, farms, new-build estates and dozens of villages, it is clear that support has flooded away from the Tories since Nadine Dorries, the outgoing MP, secured almost 60% of the vote and a majority just shy of 25,000 at the last election.
Complaints about access to GPs, the cost of living and Dorries’s alleged lack of presence in the seat regularly come up as the Labour and Lib Dem contenders knock on doors.
The Tories have already endured a string of disastrous byelection defeats in recent years. There has, however, usually been an obvious challenger. This time round, both Labour and the Lib Dems remain convinced that they are best placed in Mid Beds.
Figures in the two parties concede that, as a result, a divided anti-Tory vote could end up giving the seat back to the Conservatives.
A new constituency poll, seen by the Observer, underlines the danger. The poll reveals that when undecided voters are removed, Labour and the Tories are on 29% of the vote, with the Lib Dems on 22%. The poll was conducted by Survation for the Labour Together group, which has close ties with Keir Starmer’s leadership.
The Reform UK party has 7%, and a well-known independent candidate, Gareth Mackey, has 6% of the vote. Survation contacted 559 total respondents. Josh Simons, director of Labour Together, insisted the poll “clearly shows this is a two-horse race between Labour and the Conservatives”.
A Lib Dem source insisted it was a “devastating poll for Labour” because its vote share had not increased significantly since the last constituency poll.
“This poll confirms Conservative voters are turning to us, not Labour,” they said. “It’s clearer than ever that the Lib Dems are best placed to beat the Conservatives in rural Mid Bedfordshire. When even Labour’s own polling shows that, you know they are in trouble.”
Constituency polls are notoriously hard to conduct, but the research indicates a clear collapse in the Tory vote. It also shows a split among the progressive parties that could see the Tories claim victory with half the vote share they enjoyed at the last election. Conservative candidate and county police and crime commissioner Festus Akinbusoye is still working the seat hard, and there is a hardcore of Tory voters who remain loyal.
A series of factors have led to the Labour-Lib Dem standoff. The Lib Dems have traditionally made their name by overturning big Tory majorities in byelections, such as Somerton and Frome in July. Yet the moment in June when Dorries indicated she was resigning, Labour’s high command saw it as a chance to show that Starmer’s new-look party could compete for supposedly safe Tory seats.
Then there is the varied nature of Mid Beds. Some Lib Dems compare it to Somerton and Frome, a seat with a small town but predominantly made up of smaller villages. “Those villages will vote Lib Dem but they won’t vote Labour,” said one Lib Dem strategist. “That’s pretty much where we’re at.”
However, that assessment is ridiculed by Labour figures. They say there is considerable demographic change, with younger families moving into a significant amount of new-build housing, and lots of them commuting to the likes of London, Luton, Bedford and Milton Keynes. It is not, they say, a typical rural seat.
Peter Kyle, the increasingly influential shadow cabinet minister who is overseeing the campaign, says the data he checks every morning suggests Labour is clearly better-placed – though he acknowledges the Tories could benefit from a split vote.
“I’m frustrated that is a possibility,” he says. “We’re not here because we have a love of wasting Labour party members’ money. We are here because all of the evidence and all of our experience tells us residents want to have a conversation with us like never before. And it is our duty as a party to respond accordingly.”
He has complained about personal attacks on Labour’s candidate, Alistair Strathern. “The Lib Dems have gone scorched earth. They are a towering inferno of self-righteous rage. Politically, they will raze the place to the ground if they carry on like this.”
The Labour and Lib Dem candidates are scrambling to make the case that they are best positioned to replace Dorries, who was widely criticised for a lack of visibility in the seat. Both play up their local credentials.
The Labour leaflets are an array of pastel shades rather than the traditional red – and activists arriving are told to be courteous and understanding with Tory voters they encounter.
If it comes down to who can make the case the fastest, there are signs Labour could have an advantage. On Friday, a bus full of its activists arrived from London, were split into teams, given a pep talk, and sent out far and wide. The party’s general secretary, David Evans, also turned up. The ground operation is in full swing.
With the 19 October vote in less than five weeks, the candidates are upping the pace. Holland-Lindsay and Strathern, campaigning in the villages of Barton-le-Clay and Wootton respectively on Friday, came away with voters seemingly backing them.
Yet there were people in both villages yet to decide where their anti-Tory vote would go. “What we’d be pleased to see around here is proper representation,” says Craig, an air traffic control worker, after being told by Strathern that he would be “present, active and focused” as an MP. Craig will have “an equal listen” to the Lib Dems. “I’m not particularly bound to any one party,” he says.
It points to a relentless battle all the way to polling day. Having complained about not seeing their last MP enough, the voters of Mid Bedfordshire may soon feel overly acquainted with the candidates now seeking to represent them.
