Senior Liberal Democrats believe the “revenge of the farmers” helped deliver their stunning by-election win in Somerset – and will help bring down part of the Conservative’s “blue wall” at the general election.
The party secured a huge victory in Somerton and Frome, overturning a majority of more than 19,000 votes.
Visiting the seat, Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey fired a mock circus cannon in celebration as he declared it was “time to get these clowns out of No 10”.
The achievement for his party was “nothing short of spectacular”, he added, as he said the Lib Dems were now “back” in their former West Country stronghold.
The party lost a number of seats in the area in the disastrous 2015 election, when it was punished by voters for the coalition years.
New Lib Dem MP Sarah Dyke won with a majority of 11,008 in the contest, triggered by former Tory MP David Warburton's resignation after he admitted cocaine use.
The unusual circumstances of the by-election aside, senior Lib Dems credited their win in Somerset in part to anger among the local farming community.
Lib Dem insiders see the government’s decision to hail a new Pacific trade deal, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) a week before voters went to the polls as a strategic error.
“Farmers feel unsettled about what will happen to [farm] payments in the post-Brexit era,” a source said, “but they absolutely hate these new trade deals.” “It is the revenge of the farmers,” they added.
George Eustice, a former Tory minister who comes from a farming family, is among those who criticised how the government has struck trade deals with the likes of Australia, amid claims that British producers have lost out.
However, some senior Lib Dem figures concede it is not clear how much of an impact the result will have on the next general election. The by-elections could allow voters the chance to “give the Tories a kicking” over Partygate and then back them at the general election, they admitted.
On his visit to the seat, however, Sir Ed declared: “This stunning victory shows the Liberal Democrats are firmly back in the West Country.
“Sarah Dyke will be an incredible local champion for the people of Somerset who have been neglected for far too long.
“She will fight for stronger local health services, better access to GPs and a fair deal for rural communities during this cost-of-living crisis.
“The people of Somerton and Frome have spoken for the rest of the country who are fed up with Rishi Sunak's out-of-touch Conservative government.”
Sir Ed has now become the first Lib Dem leader since Paddy Ashdown in the 1990s to win four by-elections.
Ms Dyke said she was “excited, exhilarated and most of all humbled” at the result.
When the result was declared the defeated Tory candidate Faye Purbrick left the count via a side entrance to get into a waiting car.
Reporters fired questions at her as she departed the venue, the Bath and West of England Society showground.
Asked about the huge change in vote, she replied: “That would be something you would have to ask the voters.”
Asked if she had anything else to say, she added: “Thank you to everybody who voted for me - I really appreciate their support and I will be back.”
