As we all probably should’ve expected, the summer movie box office isn’t exactly putting up historic numbers.
After a very respectable first four months to the year with some global hits (Dune: Part Two, Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire, Kung Fu Panda 4, Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire) and a string of mid-budget success stories (Bob Marley: One Love, Mean Girls, Civil War, The Beekeeper), May hasn’t quite produced the kind of monster hits of yesteryear.
A lot of that has to do with the 2023 Hollywood strikes that shut down film productions and drastically altered the release calendar, with this being the first non-2020/2021 year without a Marvel film to kick the summer off since 2006.
While Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes has proven to be a nice surprise (more than $300 million globally and counting), films like The Fall Guy, IF, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga and The Garfield Movie haven’t put up opening weekend numbers that we’re used to seeing this time of year. This past weekend was the lowest Memorial Day Weekend total gross in decades. That stat alone will get people concerned without context.
The slower start has lead to the post-pandemic handwringing about the future of movie theaters, two years removed from the savior landing of Top Gun: Maverick and less than a year removed from the “Barbenheimer” summer phenomenon that sparked hope that, indeed, the movies had triumphantly returned.
The seesaw movement of box office prognostications in a post-pandemic world can get a bit nauseating. It’s the “We’re back! It’s so over. We’re back!” effect of trying to read far too much into initial receipts and situational moments in theatrical exhibition. The truth is usually in the middle.
The streaming bubble has basically popped on the movie front, and most studios (sans Netflix and occasionally Amazon) more eager than ever to get people into theaters to capitalize on films as an individual investment with ticket sales, rather than have them prop up streaming subscriptions.
If you’re worried that your local theater might close down sometime in the next month because of a few seemingly underperforming movies in a post-strike summer slate, don’t be in the slightest.
The global box office may never hit pre-pandemic levels again, but theatrical is still a totally viable, fiscally solvent method of distribution.
You can throw darts at a board until the THX cows come home to try and size up every movie and how it’s performed in the last five years to try and gauge ever-changing audience interests, but the numbers show a stubborn-but-steady growth post-2020 at the global box office.
While 2019’s astronomical $39 million global haul feels difficult to replicate (keep in mind that was Disney fielding Avengers: Endgame, Toy Story 4, The Lion King and Frozen II in the same calendar year), the increase since 2020 is meaningful as audiences returned to theaters. Per Box Office Mojo, 2021 earned roughly $19 million globally, followed by 2022’s roughly $22 million and 2023’s roughly $23 million.
It’s not a colossal storming back, but it shows people came back to theaters and didn’t decide during the height of the pandemic that movies now played permanently better at home. The general problems with a streaming future for movies are the investments just don’t bring back nearly as much revenue on streaming platforms as they do in theatrical releases, and streaming films don’t hit the zeitgeist nearly as often as theatrical films do.
A movie playing in theaters gives it a certain sheen and audience intrigue when it comes home, while streaming-only films can get lost in the sea of endless content. Just look at 2022’s The Norseman, which didn’t do too hot in theaters but was apparently a win for Focus Features in part with premium video on demand sales.
Rising Hollywood star Glen Powell detailed to The Hollywood Reporter recently about why he and Sydney Sweeney opted to take their hit romantic comedy Anyone But You to theaters instead of going the streaming route.
“We had offers from every streamer, and it was guaranteed [paydays] and a much bigger budget, but Syd and I really have a very similar worldview about Hollywood,” Powell told the publication. “We said, ‘If we make this on a streamer, it won’t have any cultural impact.’ And everyone was saying rom-coms were dead theatrically so we knew we could get hosed, but we thought, ‘Let’s take the gamble,’ because what if we could bring them back?”
The gamble paid off, as the film made about $219 million worldwide and elevated both Powell and Sweeney’s star power.
Even though The Fall Guy didn’t open with massive numbers, it’s holding on with audiences and is up to about $145 million globally right now. IF is at about $104 million worldwide, while Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga and The Garfield Movie should gather more moss without much likeminded competition. Those movies aren’t massive flops in the slightest.
Plus, consider the potentially monstrous hits that await the 2024 box office. Pixar’s Inside Out 2 is tracking as the biggest opener of the year to date right now, Deadpool & Wolverine (not due until late July) is already cleaning up with presales, and 2024 still has relatively safe bets like Despicable Me 4, Twisters, Joker: Folie à Deux, Venom: The Last Dance, Gladiator II, Wicked: Part One, Moana 2, a Lord of the Rings animated film, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Mufasa: The Lion King coming down the pike. Plus, you never know what films might catch on by surprise with audiences in the months to come.
In a post-strike Hollywood, the 2024 global box office was never going to reach the full potential of previous post-pandemic years. However, theaters aren’t suddenly going the way of the dodo because of that. For movies as an artform to survive like we’re used to, a healthy theatrical system is imperative. Removed from the sensational melodrama about very recent earnings, theaters as an institution really are fine.
Even as a massive chain like AMC must adapt to debt issues and the post-pandemic landscape, they’ll find a way. Theaters are a little dinged from COVID and the strike delays, but they’ll make it just fine. Money will still come. It’s just good to be patient in times of lean. The sky isn’t falling; it’s just changing shape a bit.
