The outcome of the February 19 urban civic polls in Tamil Nadu, held after a gap of over 10 years, delivered several messages. The ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) not only retained its supremacy over its main adversary, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), but also consolidated its position. Its allies including the Congress, Left, and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi too were able to reap rich dividends. As a senior AIADMK office bearer put it, an important feature of the outcome was the manner in which the DMK and its allies demolished what was regarded as an impregnable fortress of the AIADMK — the western belt, from Namakkal to Coimbatore.
For the AIADMK, there was no relief from the lean patch it has been facing since the 2019 general election results. The results show the gap between the DMK and the AIADMK. Being the dominant constituent in its alliance, the DMK bagged 7,698 wards out of the 10,758 it contested in municipal corporations, municipalities and town panchayats with a vote share of 43.13%. The AIADMK, which fielded nominees in 11,538 wards, secured only 2,008. Its vote share was 25.15%.
While the two Dravidian majors cornered a majority of the vote share retaining the bipolar nature of the polity in T.N., what is significant is that there are signs of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) becoming an important force in the State. The BJP, which faced all the major polls as a junior partner of the AIADMK in 2019 and 2021, was forced to go it alone following the breakdown in seat-sharing talks with the Dravidian major in late January. It secured 308 wards out of the 5,594 wards it contested with a vote share of 5.41%.
The Congress won 592 wards with an overall vote share of 3.31% and a strike rate of 42.78%, making the most of its alliance with the DMK.
Critics of the BJP are quick to point out that out of the 308 wards captured by the national party, 200 are in Kanniyakumari district, a traditional stronghold. However, a senior BJP functionary rebutted this saying his party has opened its account in the municipal corporations of Cuddalore, Chennai and Vellore, all in the northern region of T.N.; Thanjavur in central T.N.; and Madurai in the south. The functionary, who hails from the western belt, acknowledges that it was disappointing that the party could not win a single seat in Coimbatore, considered a city with considerable support for the BJP.
All the other smaller parties, which faced the elections on their own, have been virtually reduced to the point of insignificance. None of the parties — Naam Tamilar Katchi, led by actor-director Seeman, which had shown some promise in the Assembly elections by netting a 6.58% vote share; Makkal Needhi Maiam, headed by Kamal Haasan; Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam of former MP and MLA T.T.V. Dhinakaran; Pattali Makkal Katchi; and Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam — could cross the 2% mark in terms of vote share.
The basic lesson to be learnt by the AIADMK or any of the smaller parties is that forming an alliance does matter, even at the urban local bodies level. They would have realised its importance at the beginning of the election if they had noticed that despite having several advantages, the ruling DMK went to the electorate, retaining the composition of the coalition that was stitched at the time of the Assembly polls in April 2021.
Seeing the results, many have started speculating that the BJP is set to enlarge its footprint in T.N., which has all along been a hard nut for the national party to crack. At the same time, what should not be overlooked is that the AIADMK, though beaten comprehensively, has shown that it has a considerable base, which will not be very easy to breach.
ramakrishnan.t@thehindu.co.in
