LESS than half of Tory members believe their party will secure victory in the next general election, with grassroots confidence at its lowest level this parliament, a new poll has found.
The survey by the influential ConservativeHome website found expectations of the Tories leading the government at Westminster in some form had fallen from a high of 72% this year to 49.5% in May, before Boris Johnson faced a no confidence vote.
Just 35% now believe the Conservatives will win an overall majority, with around 9% expecting a Tory minority government and around 5% predicting their party will lead a coalition.
When the poll of a panel of Tory party members was carried out in April, 45% expected a majority, 12% a minority government, and around 3.5% a Conservative-led coalition.
William Atkinson, assistant editor of ConservativeHome, said the drop in expectations for a majority is likely to have “several causes”.
He wrote: “Partygate, the poor local election results, and the continuing Tory lag in the polls provide a poor platform for a summer likely to be dominated by stories of stagflation and strikes. The Ukraine bounce of March has also worn off.”
He also compared Boris Johnson’s premiership to that of Edward Heath’s in the 1970s.
Tory Prime Minister Heath called a general election in February 1974 posing the question ‘Who governs Britain - the unions?’ in an attempt to boost his party - and resolved to remain as party leader after it resulted in a hung parliament.
He was replaced by Harold Wilson and a minority Labour government.
Atkinson added: “Our panel’s pessimism, coupled with Number 10’s repeated threats of a sudden election, suggests Johnson might also mirror Heath in his performance at the ballot box. Who governs Britain indeed.”
