MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC Fight Night 255 main event between former welterweight champion Leon Edwards and Sean Brady.
Leon Edwards UFC Fight Night 255 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 22-4 MMA, 14-3 UFC
- Height: 6’0″ Age: 33 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 74″
- Last fight: Decision loss to Belal Muhammad (July 27, 2024)
- Camp: Team Renegade (Birmingham, England)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC welterweight champion
+ BAMMA welterweight title
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ 6 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Good lateral footwork
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Coming forward and off the counter
+ Hard knees and body kicks
+ Superb clinch game
^ Grip awareness, elbows off the break, etc.
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Solid defensive and offensive fundamentals
Sean Brady UFC Fight Night 255 preview
Staple info:
- 17-1 MMA, 7-1 UFC
- Height: 5’10” Age: 32 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 72″
- Last fight: Decision win over Gilbert Burns (Sept. 7, 2024)
- Camp: Marquez MMA/Renzo Gracie Philly (Philadelphia)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 3 KO victories
+ 5 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Improved overall striking
^ Good countering sensibilities
+ Accurate left hook
+ Strong in side the clinch
^ Works well from bodylock
+ Solid wrestling ability
^ Offensively and defensively
+ Excellent positional grappling
^ Superb from topside or when riding cageside
+/- 2-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws
Leon Edwards vs. Sean Brady point of interest: The cost of counters
The main event in London features a showdown between two top welterweights who are familiar with the cost of counters.
Aside from the looming takedown threat that Sean Brady brings to the table, the Philadelphia native has developed a taste for countering while striking on the feet.
Traditionally taking more of a backfoot approach, Brady appears to be okay with allowing his opponents to come to him.
Although Brady can work into the pocket behind his lead hand when he needs to, the Marquez MMA product prefers counter in combination (taking takedowns when available). Brady also has a solid left hook that’s effective both coming forward and off the counter, but can sometimes be countered himself when overthrowing his favored weapon.
Brady’s kick counters will likely serve him well this Saturday, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pressure a bit more, in general, given the stylistic dynamic at play.
A slick, diverse striker who can counter or come forward with effect, Edwards’ pairing of speed and accuracy helps him cover a lot of ground in regard to gaining respect.
Leon Edwards counter striking pic.twitter.com/6ZBIiXgAh7
— Miguel Class (@MigClass) August 19, 2022
Showing the threat of a deceptive lead hand that he often uses to check his opponents, Edwards keeps powerful left crosses and kicks at the ready, occasionally sprinkling in sneaky teeps and explosive knees to intercept oncoming level changes. The Englishman also doesn’t mind throwing a shot away in order to land another, as Edwards seems perfectly fine with making adjustments on the fly.
Whenever his opponents offer up straight shots down the center, Edwards has a knack for countering over the tops of their shoulders. And when they decide to hook hard or launch power from the rear, Edwards is quick to suffocate their efforts by initiating the clinch and applying his patent close-quarter-combat tactics.
When feeling in stride, Edwards will try and capitalize on previous bodywork by going up high with his patent head kick – usually setting it up off of your classic southpaw double-attack dynamic.
Even though I see Edwards’ knees and elbows having some play in this fight, the distance he likes to launch it at will likely invite a very sticky customer.
Leon Edwards vs. Sean Brady breakdown: Winning the wrestling
Considering the previous success that other fighters have had against Edwards, no one should be shocked if Brady looks to pressure the former champion into grappling exchanges early and often.
Although it should be obvious with his brick house build, Brady has made a reputation for himself as an insanely strong positional grappler who feels like a gorilla in closed quarters.
Wielding some serviceable takedown chops, Brady demonstrates a solid attack process, particularly when working from a bodylock. Whether Brady is manipulating a standing leg or is looking to hit shuck-bys toward the back, the Renzo Gracie representative chains his moves well when working along the fence, flowing from takedowns to positional rides like clockwork.
And once Brady establishes one of his favored positions, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is both patient and methodical when it comes to bottlenecking opposition into his preferred submissions.
Thankfully for Edwards, the Englishman appears to be more comfortable in the clinch than he is anywhere else in the octagon. Far from a pushover in the wrestling department, Edwards has made some sizable upgrades to his game throughout his UFC tenure.
Initially identified as a striker when first stepping onto the UFC scene, Edwards put a sizable emphasis on his wrestling after losing a close split decision in his promotional debut. Since then, we have seen Edwards surprise better on-paper grapplers with suffocating clinches and well-timed trip takedowns that allow the Englishman to counter offensive efforts and win rounds in the process.
🧵 Here’s Leon Edwards using the same sequence Usman does to success against Gunnar Nelson: https://t.co/LTU3xVZ1IG
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) September 26, 2024
Edwards also likes looking for the back, but – as seen in the tweet above – is just as happy playing the role of a positional rider and grinding things out with crafty controls and other forms of attritional warfare. That said, Edwards is not beyond making suspect decisions from time to time and will need to be careful about giving away opportunities that Brady can make hay with.
Leon Edwards vs. Sean Brady odds
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the American fighter, listing Brady -166 and Edwards +130 via FanDuel.
Leon Edwards vs. Sean Brady prediction, pick
Despite Brady taking this fight with just five weeks’ notice (replacing a rebooked Jack Della Maddalena), I can understand the support for him considering the matchup at hand.
Aside from the fact that Edwards was initially preparing for a completely different stylistic threat in Della Maddalena, wrestle-heavy fighters have traditionally given the Englishman his toughest contests. Although there are people like me who will defend Edwards and his underrated grappling game, there’s no denying that the former champ tends to make things harder than they need to be, in victory or defeat.
In fact, if Edwards utilized his lead hand more consistently, I believe that he could amplify his stymying ways even further en route to encouraging far more countering opportunities. And with Brady’s penchant for catching kicks at play, I’ll be curious to see if Edwards makes those obvious adjustments and tactical choices this weekend.
Brady may technically stand 2-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws, but there was very little striking in those fights. Furthermore, whenever Brady has been stuck in space with a southpaw, his game looks much less comfortable while being more limited, as outside-foot awareness appears to be his primary focus for setting up entries.
If Edwards can use the clinch-countering tactics that served him well in his last two fights with Kamaru Usman, then could eventually dissuade Brady’s attacks and pick him apart at range with weapons ranging from the counter right hook to his patent left head kick (which has extra play against the wrestle-boxer archetype in open-stance affairs).
The potential problem, however, is that the scenario above depends on Edwards fighting both smartly and consistently – which has been a struggle for him even in his wins.
What Edwards does tend to do is exercise the clinch for comfort and depend on his kicks at range. And when you factor that in with Brady’s hardwiring to counter kicks and his strength inside closed quarters, you can start to see the writing on the wall.
Another late comeback by Edwards is certainly on the table should Brady’s suspect gas tank show itself with the shorter-camp intangibles at play, but I’ll semi-reluctantly pick Brady to edge out a competitive decision win on the cards (despite initially leaning toward Edwards).
Prediction:Brady by decision
Leon Edwards vs. Sean Brady start time, where to watch
As the main event, Pereira and Ankalaev are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 5:45 p.m. ET (9:45 p.m. in London). The fight streams on ESPN+.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC Fight Night 255.
