Good morning.
The amount of time I’ve spent on airplanes and in airports over the past year has led me to buy into the idea of "revenge travel.” With the pandemic largely behind us, everyone seems to be going everywhere all at once.
But a report out this morning from the folks at Deloitte (which sponsors this newsletter) reveals a more complex picture. (CEO Daily got an exclusive early peek.) While leisure travel surpassed its pre-pandemic highs many months ago, business travel remains depressed and isn’t expected to fully return to pre-pandemic levels until the end of 2024. Some interesting takeaways from report, which is based on a survey of corporate travel managers in the U.S. and Europe:
--Corporate spending on travel will reach 57% of its 2019 levels in the first half of this year and is expected to reach two-thirds of 2019 levels in the second half. Seventy-one percent of U.S. companies expect a “full recovery” by the end of 2024.
--International business travel is on the rise, accounting for 33% of all U.S. business travel in 2023, up from 21% in 2022.
--Travel to conferences and live events returned in force, becoming the biggest trigger for increased spending in 2023, up from fifth place in 2022. There appears to be pent-up demand for both industry conferences and internal corporate events. (That fits our experience at Fortune.)
--Climate concerns continue to be a damper on business travel. A third of U.S. companies and four in ten European companies say they need to reduce travel per employee by more than 20% to reach their 2030 sustainability targets.
--The travel managers said they expect the “new normal” for work-from-home days to settle at about 2.2 per week, down from 3.9 at the peak of the pandemic, but three times the pre-pandemic average of 0.7.
More news below. And check out this new economic analysis from the folks at Goldman Sachs, who see Friday’s employment numbers as evidence that the economy could be headed for a soft landing. I’ve been a skeptic… but welcome the possibility!
Alan Murray
@alansmurray
alan.murray@fortune.com
