In a second triangular alliance in Andhra Pradesh, the Left parties are aligning with the Congress party to contest the 2024 Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. The Left parties — the Communist Party of India (CPI) and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)] hope to revive their past glory in this election.
The Left is allying with the Congress party after nearly two decades. The CPI and CPI(M) had an alliance with the Congress in 2004 in composite Andhra Pradesh, during Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy’s tenure. The Left parties won 15 seats in composite A.P. then, after sailing with the Congress.
Now, the CPI has decided to contest from 14 Assembly constituencies in the State for this election. The party also decided to contest from two Lok Sabha constituencies and is aiming to improve its prospects in the State. Similarly, the CPI(M) has drawn up plans to contest from a minimum of 10 Assembly constituencies in the State. A final picture would emerge soon, as there is a need for consensus on a couple of seats with the Congress party headed by Y.S. Sharmila, daughter of Dr Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy.
A bird’s eye view of the Left parties’ performance since 1972 shows a decline in composite Andhra Pradesh. The Communist Party’s vote share was 10.01% in the 1962 election and they won 51 seats. In 1964, CPI underwent a division with the formation of CPI(M). Both CPI and CPI(M) managed to get 11 and nine seats respectively in the immediate election in 1967. Their vote share was 7.78% and 7.61% respectively, adding up to a total vote share of 15.38%.
However, their performance has gone downhill ever since. Their vote share touched rock bottom, with the CPI securing 0.1% in 2019 and CPI(M) getting 0.3% votes. In residuary A.P., after the State’s bifurcation in 2014, their vote share has fallen below 1%, and their seats nil.
The Left prospects improved in the 1985, 1994, 2004 and 2009 elections. A cursory look at these elections indicates that the Left benefitted from the alliances and won a few seats, but their vote share eroded beyond imagination. The Left sympathisers turned to Telugu Desam Party (TDP) or Congress, as their requirements were met by the incumbent governments. By the time the Left parties realised the side effects of the alliances and take corrective measures, their combined vote share stood at 0.4% in 2019.
In 1985, the election, after Nadendla Bhaskar Rao’s coup against TDP founder-president N.T. Rama Rao, the TDP had a pre-poll pact with the Left and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Then, the CPI won 11 out of 15 seats it contested, while the CPI(M) won 11 out of 12.
Again in 1994, the TDP had an alliance with the Left. The 1994 elections were held after the P.V. Narasimha Rao government at the Centre initiated economic reforms in 1991. The CPI won 19 out of 21 seats, while the CPI(M) won 15 out of 16 seats in 1994. In the subsequent election, the CPI could not win a single seat in 1999 athough it contested from 45 Assembly constituencies in 1999, while the CPI(M) managed to bag two seats against 48 it contested. The CPI and CPI(M) vote share dipped to 1.6% and 1.8% respectively.
A strong anti-incumbency against the TDP government swayed the State in 1989, and Rajiv Gandhi was murdered two years later, which saw the Congress emerge victorious. The CPI and CPI(M) had an alliance with the TDP, which lost the battle, but the Left managed to win eight and six seats respectively. Probably, it was the only election wherein the Left won against the tide. But, their vote share did not improve significantly. The CPI got 2.6% votes compared 2.7% in 1985, and CPI(M) garnered 2.5% against 2.3% in 1985.
In 2014, the Left had no alliance with any party as the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) chose to fight the elections alone, and the TDP partnered with the BJP and the Jana Sena Party (JSP). The CPI and CPI(M) could not win any seats in that election. In 2019, the Left sailed with the JSP, which itself failed to make an impact. The CPI drew a blank although it contested from seven seats and CPI(M) got none though it was in the fray in seven seats.
Now, the big question is whether the Left parties would be able to improve their performance and make it to the Andhra Pradesh State Assembly and the Lok Sabha. Only time can tell.
