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With just three games to go, Leeds United find themselves deep in the soup. They are a shade of odds-on to be relegated (10/11 with Betfred) and that price will only go one way if they cannot find a way of picking up at least a point against Chelsea on Wednesday night.
The good news for Leeds is that Chelsea head north out of sorts and, with an FA Cup final on the horizon, it's fair to say that they might not be as focused on this fixture as they might ordinarily be.
The bad news for Leeds is there record against the 'big six' this season. They have lost by an aggregate score of 48-6 and it's that porous defence that is really proving an Achilles Heel. The 'goals conceded' column reads 74, which equates to 2.1 goals per game - a number that makes staying in the league almost impossible.
Leeds are just shy of 4/1 (19/5) to pick up the points that would provide a huge boost to their survival hopes, while Thomas Tuchel's side are 4/6 favourites to get the win that would cement their top-four place.
The real damage for Leeds was done in a 14-match period between December and March where the Whites lost 11 of those games, a run of form that ultimately cost Marcelo Bielsa his job. However, their plight was severely damaged by the loss of key figures down the spine of the team like Liam Cooper, Kalvin Phillips and Patrick Bamford.
Recent form under Jesse Marsch hasn't been too bad - their xGF exceeds xGA for the first time since early in the season and the only two defeats in their last seven games were against Man City and Arsenal. However, sides around them have been picking up results and Everton's win at Leicester has blown the relegation battle wide open.
Leeds United vs Chelsea prediction
Chelsea's season is petering out pretty tamely and there is a definite feeling that their focus is now on Saturday's FA Cup final against Liverpool. With that in mind, this might not turn into the one-sided affair the odds suggest.
The Blues have only kept one clean sheet in their last five Premier League matches and the scope for Leeds to get on the scoresheet here is fairly substantial.
Leeds caused the Chelsea all sorts of problems in the reverse fixture earlier in the season, only going down to a late penalty and, backed by a raucous Elland Road crowd, they look a spot of value to pick up at least a point this time.
Recommended bet: Leeds/Draw double chance @ 6/5 with Betfred
Leeds United vs Chelsea odds with Betfred
- Leeds United - 19/5
- Draw - 3/1
- Chelsea - 4/6
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