Leeds United have one of the toughest run-ins in the battle against Premier League relegation, but it’s not as bad as some, it seems. The Whites currently find themselves perched precariously on the edge of the relegation zone, with goal difference the only thing keeping them out of the bottom three with just 13 games to play.
As such, Javi Gracia’s side need to find form and do it quickly if they are to pull away from danger before the end of the campaign. Gracia made a fine start to life at Elland Road last month with a win over Southampton, who were bottom of the table at the time, but Leeds were unable to build on that at Chelsea last weekend.
Fans could be forgiven, then, for looking down the club’s fixture list and assessing where the points Leeds require will come from. United’s schedule isn’t a pretty sight, with games against top five sides Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham and Manchester City still to come.
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But, opportunities are there to see against sides in the relegation mire alongside Leeds, with matches against Bournemouth, Wolves, Crystal Palace, West Ham, Nottingham Forest and Leicester to be played. All six games can be considered must win for the Whites and half of them come on home soil, too, where Leeds have produced their best stuff.
Crunching the numbers, Leeds’ remaining opponents have an average league position of 9.5 and that’s a schedule that looks trickier than most at the bottom. However, it looks favourable compared to Southampton’s, with the Saints’ remaining opponents averaging a position of 8.2.
The south coast club have the top nine in the Premier League still to play, with a trip to Manchester United coming this Sunday, before Brentford and Tottenham travel to St Mary’s Stadium next week. Trips to Arsenal, Newcastle United and Brighton and Hove Albion come during the final few weeks of the season before Liverpool go to Southampton on the final day of the season.
Nottingham Forest’s run-in isn’t too much easier, with their remaining games coming against sides with an average league position of 8.3. They have seven of the top nine still to play, having already played Man City and Fulham twice.
However, a lot of their tougher games come at home where Forest have been so hard to beat in recent months and they’ll fancy their chances against the likes of Newcastle United, Manchester United, Brighton and Arsenal. Forest, who are currently 14th, still have Leeds, Wolves and Southampton to play, too.
Everton are the only other side with a tougher run-in than Leeds, with the Toffees’ opponents averaging 9.1 in the table. It appears as though Crystal Palace have the easiest schedule, having come through their own hellish run through January and February.
The Eagles still have Manchester City and Arsenal to play before the international break, but from April onwards they face seven of the bottom nine teams in the division and their opponents’ league standing averages 11.8. Palace are currently on the brink of the battle at the bottom and while fixtures against teams battling for survival can be testing, they’ll fancy their chances of being able to pull away from danger.
Leicester City and Bournemouth will also feel their run-ins could have been less favourable, with both clubs’ remaining schedules being made up of teams averaging 11.2 in table. West Ham United's run-in looks slightly easier than Leeds', but it's worth saying the Hammers are still competing in the Europa Conference League that could have an impact.
Run-in difficulty based on average league position of opponents
Team (current position) - average position of opponents
Southampton (19th) - 8.2
Nottingham Forest (14th) - 8.3
Everton (18th) – 9.1
Leeds (17th) – 9.5
West Ham (16th) – 9.8
Wolves (13th) – 10.3
Bournemouth (20th) – 11.2
Leicester (15th) – 11.2
Crystal Palace (12th) – 11.8
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