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Joshua Hobbs

Leeds United forward Rodrigo tops all Premier League players in key attacking metric

It's safe to say that things haven't quite worked out in the way they were hoped or expected to since Leeds United completed a record £27million deal for Rodrigo in the Summer of 2020.

He arrived at the club as 'Spain's number nine' and was believed to have been signed as there were questions over Patrick Bamford's ability to adapt to the level of the Premier League after a difficult season in front of goal in the Championship.

Instead, Bamford started the season in red-hot form in front of goal and went on to score 17 times in the division, meaning Rodrigo barely had a sniff in his favoured position. Bielsa subsequently chose to utilise the Spaniard in an attacking midfield role.

The player's fit in that position has been questioned, as he seems to struggle with a man-marking brief, which is something that every outfield player has to take up at Leeds, other than the number nine who presses the two centre backs and one spare centre back to sweep up. As such, when Rodrigo is playing in midfield, opposition midfielders and centre backs are often able to progress through the midfield too easily.

However, he does have a major upside when playing in midfield. He is Leeds' most creative player according to 'expected assists,' which is a metric which gives a value to a player's passes, suggesting how many assists they should have based on the quality of the goalscoring chance that came from that pass.

Rodrigo's 0.27 expected assists per 90 puts him ahead of Raphinha's 0.23, although the Brazilian has a total expected assist of 4, compared to Rodrigo's 3 due to having played more minutes.

However, Leeds haven't made the most of that creative upside which Rodrigo has brought as despite his 3 expected assists, they have scored 0 goals from his passes. Whilst a reason for that could be attributed to the lack of Leeds' best striker in Bamford, it's also the case that the attackers who have played have missed some very good chances laid on for them by Rodrigo.

In fact, according to stats from fbref, Rodrigo stands as the top ranked player in the Premier League when looking at assists - expected assists. This allows us to see which players have been most let down by the finishing of their teammates.

Notably, Manchester City have three players in the top ten as Bernardo Silva, Kevin De Bruyne and Raheem Sterling have only four assists between them despite racking up over 7 expected assists.

Leeds are the only other team in the list to have two players in the top ten as Raphinha has two assists from four expected assists worth of chances. However, the narrative around Raphinha is different to the one around Rodrigo as the winger base statistics of eight goals and two assists look a lot more healthy than Rodrigo's two goals and no assists.

What Whites fans should be encouraged by is the fact that they have two players in Raphinha and Rodrigo who produce a high amount of chances for their teammates. Manchester City's three players on the list above have only created 0.1 expected assists higher than Rodrigo and Raphinha combined. When Bamford finally returns and Leeds have a presence in the penalty box once again, it's almost inevitable that their goalscoring as a team will improve.

However, even without their number nine, the law of probability states that if Rodrigo keeps producing chances - particularly in the way he did in the first half against Newcastle where his through balls looked most likely to cut the Magpies open - the assists will come. When they do, Leeds fans will see the true upside of a player who still has the potential to be one of the most important attacking players at the club.

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