The ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) seems set for a season of hard bargaining, with at least two key constituents vying for crucial Rajya Sabha seats that will become vacant in July.
Given the current composition of the Kerala Legislative Assembly, the electoral college, the LDF is likely to win two seats. The United Democratic Front (UDF), sans any electoral surprise, seems poised to bag the third.
The Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)] will likely claim one of the two seats, leaving the field open for the Communist Party of India (CPI) and the Kerala Congress (M) to battle it out for the second likely to be won by the LDF.
Currently, the LDF has three members in the Rajya Sabha —Elamaram Kareem of the CPI(M), Binoy Viswam of the CPI, and Jose K. Mani of the Kerala Congress (M).
Mr. Mani’s strategic move of defecting to the LDF in 2020, followed by his resignation from the Rajya Sabha seat that he had won on the UDF ticket, set the stage for a by-election to the upper House in 2021. In a not-so-surprising turn of events, the Kerala Assembly elected Mr. Mani to the Upper House, showcasing the intricacies of fluctuating coalition loyalties in Kerala.
The CPI shows little sign of giving up on the demand for Rajya Sabha accommodation. CPI State Secretary Binoy Viswam told reporters that the party had no confusion and appeared to hint at a status quo.
Political prestige
Mr. Mani also is angling for the RS seat as a matter of political prestige. He said he hoped the LDF would make a correct decision. The KC(M) will broach the issue during the LDF meeting.
Notably, third-tier leaders in the KC(M) were point-blank about their party’s aspirations. Some told television news reporters in Kottayam that the KC(M)‘s entry into the LDF had paved the way for the ruling alliance’s second consecutive win in the Kerala Legislative Assembly polls in 2021.
An insider said the CPI(M) might not be willing to deprive the CPI, its oldest and biggest ruling front ally, of the RS seat. The CPI(M) would also not forsake its entitlement for an RS seat to appease any coalition partner.
He said the outcome of the LS polls, particularly the KC(M)‘s showing, including in the Pala Assembly constituency that Mr. Mani had lost to the UDF, might have a crucial bearing on the LDF’s seat-sharing discussions.
