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Belfast Live
Belfast Live
National
Brendan Hughes

'Lazy analysis' to link NI Census results to border poll says DUP

Linking the religious make-up of Northern Ireland with the prospect of a border poll is a "lazy analysis", the DUP has said.

It comes ahead of the release of Census results for 2021, which it is believed could show Catholics as the largest religious group in Northern Ireland for the first time since its creation.

The planned publication of figures showing the region's religious breakdown was delayed by two days until Thursday following the death of Queen Elizabeth II.

Read more: Northern Ireland Census results 2022 reveals new data on local population

Statistics about national identity and passports held will also be released.

The 2011 Census recorded that 45.1% of the population were Catholic or brought up Catholic, and 48.4% were from a Protestant or other Christian background.

The DUP said that "those drawing lazy analysis" relating to any referendum on a united Ireland "should step back" and examine electoral outcomes in the last two decades.

DUP MP Gregory Campbell said: "The Northern Ireland Census every 10 years brings with it the inevitable 'religious headcount' with writers and some politicians making ill-informed comments about the religious breakdown and what it might mean politically.

"Some make an automatic read across that more Roman Catholics or fewer Protestants means border poll. It is undoubtedly the case that there has been a change in the demographic make-up of Northern Ireland over the last 50 years.

"As the Census will show, there are no majorities. There is a Protestant minority, a Roman Catholic minority and a minority of people who don't describe themselves as coming from either of these two backgrounds."

Mr Campbell said election results show a "very emphatic rejection of this notion of religious background equalling political preference".

The East Londonderry MP added: "It is plain to see demographics have changed over the last 20 years, but it is also clear that support for nationalist and republican border-poll-calling parties has not grown. Rather it has declined slightly.

"Whatever the Census outcome, those of us supporting Northern Ireland remaining within the UK cannot be complacent but those who take the opposite view need to face up to the ironic reality which is the more diverse Northern Ireland within the UK becomes, the less likely we are to want to leave."

In May's Assembly election, Sinn Féin overtook the DUP to become the largest party at Stormont for the first time.

However, unionism is still the largest designation in the Assembly with 37 MLAs compared to 35 for nationalism.

Amid the growth of the unaligned Alliance Party, the number of MLAs who designate as nationalist dropped from the 39 elected in the 2017 Assembly election.

The Census occurs every 10 years and participation is compulsory. The findings from the latest Census, which was held in March last year, are being released in stages by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.

Earlier this year it was announced that Northern Ireland's population had risen to a new high of 1,903,100.

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