DENVER — Early in the third day of of the 2022 midterm election, incumbent U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert overtook Adam Frisch with a small lead in the race, but thousands more ballots have yet to be counted.
As of 4:23 p.m. Mountain time Thursday, Boebert led Frisch by 1,229 votes at a slim margin of 50.19% to 49.81%, according to vote tallies from the secretary of state’s office. Previously Frisch held an even more narrow lead with just a few dozen votes.
But the race is far from over. Pueblo County Clerk Gilbert Ortiz confirmed to The Denver Post early Thursday that his office had yet to count thousands of in-person and mail-in ballots, plus his staff was in the process of verifying the signatures of another 500 or more ballots. Ortiz’s office is expected to filter updated vote counts to state election officials throughout the day.
The remaining votes could give Frisch a chance to regain the lead: So far, Pueblo County voters leaned toward the Democratic candidate from Aspen 54% to Boebert’s 46%.
Unless either candidate wins with enough votes, the race will trigger the state’s automatic recount process.
Colorado’s recount threshold sits at 0.5% of the leading candidate’s total votes, approximately 802 votes at the current turnout rate. Currently Boebert’s lead is well over that threshold.
Whether any additional ballots remain to be uncounted across the rest of the state also remains unclear.
Word also spread online between journalists and politicos that more ballots remained in Mesa and Garfield counties, but representatives of both county clerks offices did not return messages seeking comment. Boebert would have an advantage with Mesa County ballots, but a disadvantage in Garfield County, where she lives.
In addition, ballots from out-of-state voters, including members of the military, can be counted until Nov. 16, which could sway the results of such a close race.
As of 4:30 p.m. Thursday, neither candidate had declared victory or conceded.
Boebert addressed the remarkably tight race, which most expected to break heavily in her favor, and blamed the narrow margin partially on strong turnout from Democrats, The Wall Street Journal Reported.
“I don’t know if there wasn’t enough enthusiasm for our top ticket candidates for governor and Senate or what happened there, but there was a lot of shifting in the votes there,” Boebert told the Journal.
Political scientists interpreted Boebert’s shortfall differently, though.
Casey Burgat, a legislative affairs program director at George Washington University, called the razor-thin race a direct repudiation of Boebert and her controversial governing style.
“We’ve seen this with party leaders before. They’re too comfortable and they start neglecting the people who actually cast the ballots,” Burgat said. “They think their party will carry them through and then they get slapped in the face with voters who are tired of that type of representation.”
Frisch, a former Aspen City Councilman, tweeted Wednesday night, asking voters to make sure ballots with any issues were fixed — “cured” is the technical term — with county clerks’ offices.
“As expected, this thing is coming down to the wire,” Frisch said. “Thank you for sticking with us! We’re feeling good & going to make sure every valid ballot counts.”
As more votes continue to trickle in, the outcome of the race could certainly change.
“I’m just guessing at this point,” Seth Masket, a political scientist with the University of Denver said.
Even if either candidate takes the lead and surpasses the automatic recount threshold, the losing candidate could request a recount, though they’d have to pay for the effort.
