Palestinian militant groups have named the three hostages they plan to free on Saturday in return for the release of 369 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, raising hopes that the January ceasefire agreement will survive its latest crisis.
However, the longer-term prospects of the truce remain in doubt and the uncertainty has been deepened by the US president, Donald Trump, who made surprise territorial claims over Gaza.
Saudi Arabia is reportedly planning to host a summit next week to try to agree an alternative plan for Gaza’s future, a week before an emergency Arab League meeting in Cairo to discuss the situation.
The hostages due to be released on Saturday have been named as Argentinian-born Iair Horn; a dual US-Israeli citizen, Sagui Dekel-Chen; and a Russian-Israeli, Sasha Troufanov. They were all abducted from the Nir Oz kibbutz, near Gaza, in the Hamas attack of 7 October 2023. Two were held by Hamas and one by Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
The identities of the Palestinians due to be freed have not been published, but they are expected to include 333 people taken prisoner in Gaza since the start of the war and 36 inmates serving life prison sentences.
Israel and global human rights groups expressed outrage at the frail, emaciated state of the three hostages freed a week ago, their accounts of brutality in captivity, and the handover event staged by Hamas in which the three men had to thank their captors in front of a line of masked, armed gunmen.
An Israeli-American hostage released two weeks ago, Keith Siegel, has given a chilling account of his experiences. “I was held for 484 days in unimaginable conditions, every single day felt like it could be my last,” he said in a video message. “I was starved and I was tortured, both physically and emotionally.”
The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), which has facilitated the exchanges, said in a statement: “The latest release operations reinforce the urgent need for ICRC access to those held hostage. We remain very concerned about the conditions of the hostages.” It called on Hamas to ensure future handovers were conducted in privacy and with dignity.
If Saturday’s hostage release goes ahead, it will bring to 19 the number of Israelis exchanged for about 1,100 Palestinians. Five Thai citizens have also been released. By the end of the first six-week phase, another 14 hostages (six live and the remains of eight who have died in captivity) are due to be freed in exchange for another 800 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
A second phase is due to begin on 1 March, in which both sides plan to release all remaining hostages and prisoners, and Israel would complete its military withdrawal from Gaza. But so far, Benjamin Netanyahu has not empowered his negotiators to start talks on how this second phase would proceed, and Israeli analysts question the prime minister’s readiness to stick to the agreement.
“It’s no secret that Netanyahu doesn’t want the deal to continue and wants to stop it before the second phase,” Haaretz’s military analyst, Amos Harel, wrote, adding that if the truce ended, there could be “a year or even longer” of fighting to come.
The truce agreement appeared in danger of collapse this week after Hamas announced there would be an indefinite delay to the release of the next three hostages owing to Israel’s alleged violations of the deal. Soon after, Trump suggested that Israel should demand that the remaining hostages be freed by noon on Saturday or “all hell is going to break out”.
Israel massed troops around the edge of the Gaza Strip, deepening fears the ceasefire would come to an abrupt end. On Thursday, however, the immediate crisis appeared to recede with Hamas confirming three Israelis would be freed and Netanyahu’s office clarifying that it was not demanding the liberation of all the remaining hostages.
However, Trump’s shocking proposal the US would claim possession of Gaza, which would be emptied of its 2.2 million Palestinian inhabitants and developed into a “Riviera” resort coastline, has clouded the prospects for the ceasefire’s survival over the coming weeks.
Egypt and Jordan have made it clear to Trump’s administration that they are not prepared to host hundreds of thousands of Palestinians ethnically cleansed from Gaza.
The two Arab states, joined by Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, are expected to take part in the Saudi-hosted summit on 20 February, according to sources quoted by Agence France-Presse. The meeting is reportedly intended to hammer out a development plan for Gaza to present as an alternative option to Trump’s proposal.
