Apple won't release its first official iPhone 16 sales figures until it announces its quarterly earnings on October 31, and then the numbers will only reveal the first couple weeks of sales. But some sales data about the iPhone 16 models is starting to trickle out — and it doesn't sound good for the less expensive models.
The new figures come from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who posted on X that all four new iPhones are seeing just about the same quantity of assembly orders. However, the overall demand for the base iPhone 16 model is down, indicating that customers are favoring the two iPhone 16 Pro models.
iPhone production primarily takes place in China, and Kuo is pretty well-sourced when it comes to Apple's supply chain partners. The analyst says that Apple wants its suppliers to keep producing both Pro models during China's National Day week-long holiday. Kuo said this indicates that demand for these models has met Apple's expectations.
"Demand for the 16 base model and 16 Plus remains lackluster compared to last year," Kuo wrote.
Going forward, Kuo expects Apple to produce 88 to 89 million iPhone 16 units during the year-ending quarter, which is line with his previous forecast. It's also lower than the 90 to 91 million units Apple produced for last year's iPhone 15 models during the same period.
Regarding iPhone 16 Pro shipping times, Kuo noted that the times are lower for the iPhone 16 Pro than for last year's model, even though demand is steady. That would suggest Apple was better about having enough supply on hand this time around.
Kuo also noted that Apple is preparing for a potential boost in U.S. sales as the device's Apple Intelligence features arrive this month via the iOS 18.1 update. (Those features are currently available as a public beta.) "The next focus will be the impact on U.S. market demand/shipments after Apple Intelligence becomes available in late October," Kuo said.
While Kuo has a strong reputation when it comes to his Apple forecasts, it's worth emphasizing that these figures are only estimates; only Apple knows for sure how iPhone 16 sales are performing. For now, the company has simply highlight the strong word of mouth surrounding the phones and the anticipation for this month's Apple Intelligence debut.
