Wild storms will bring heavy rain and dangerous winds across a broad band of eastern Australia from later on Monday.
A cold front and trough are expected to collide, bringing rain, hail and damaging gusts in a line of up to 3000 kilometres from the eastern Northern Territory down through Queensland, NSW and Victoria to Tasmania.
The storms will hit just days out from the official beginning of spring on Thursday.
The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a warning for winds of up to 90km/h in Victoria’s east from late Monday into Tuesday. Rain was already falling in parts of Victoria by midday Monday, with it expected to spread later in the day.
Tweet from @BOM_Vic
North of the Murray, BOM said north to north-westerly winds would strengthen in NSW’s alpine regions as the cold front approached on Tuesday morning.
Damaging winds with gusts up to 110km/h are possible above 1900 metres on Tuesday morning.
“These conditions are expected to develop well before sunrise, and then ease late on Tuesday morning,” the weather bureau said.
Tweet from @EWNAlerts
There are also strong wind and gale warnings for much of Tasmania, while much of south-west Queensland can expect a drenching.
Forecaster Weatherzone said up to 40 millimetres of rain was likely across much of eastern Australia, including western and southern NSW, northern Victoria and northern Tasmania. Some areas might get as much as 80 millimetres.
“There is a decent chance that we will see some severe storms within this outbreak as well, particularly on Monday, as the front and trough move through Victoria, NSW and Queensland,” Weatherzone said.
“Storms could generate damaging-to-destructive wind gusts, large hail and torrential rain leading to flash flooding.”
Tweet from @BOM_Qld
On Tuesday, the focus will be on NSW and Queensland, with showers and storms likely around the northern rivers and in southern Queensland.
“Thunderstorms on Tuesday should be less widespread before more settled weather returns to the north on Wednesday,” Weatherzone said.
“Unfortunately for the south-east, the front will drag more cold air up from the Southern Ocean, leading to a few chilly days early next week.”
Spring likely to be wetter than average
The late winter blasts follows the BOM’s predictions of a wet spring for most of eastern Australia.
The bureau’s Spring 2022 Climate and Water Outlook, released last week, reflected several climate influences including a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event to the west and the chance of a La Niña returning this spring increasing to about 70 per cent.
Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Dr Lynette Bettio said, “where soils and catchments are wet, and streamflows are high, further rainfall this spring will increase the risk of flooding for eastern Australia”.
“In northern Australia, the first rains of the wet season are likely be earlier than normal for much of Queensland and the Northern Territory.”
October is the official beginning of the wet season across northern Australia.
Dr Bettio said a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) was also likely. It would push weather systems south, bringing wetter easterly winds to NSW and fewer cold fronts to western Tasmania.
Dr Bettio said parts of Western Australia and western Tasmania were likely to experience below average rainfall this spring.
Almost all of Australia is likely to experience warmer than average nights, while cooler days are likely for large parts of the mainland except the tropical north.
