As the final round of the AFLW home and away season gets under way, so too does one of the most tightly contested runs home for a spot in the top eight the league has seen. It’s not often that teams in the top half of the ladder are so vulnerable, hanging on percentages and in some cases relying on teams around them to have an off day.
After round eight, the finals appeared set in stone but round nine provided multiple upsets, setting the stage for an epic final round that includes some do-or-die clashes.
Two spots in the top eight are up for grabs, with four teams vying for those places. Sitting between seven and 10 on the ladder are Geelong, Sydney, St Kilda and Collingwood, who all have a total of 20 points and are only separated by small percentages.
St Kilda pulled off one of the shocks of the season when they defeated the Brisbane Lions at RSEA Park last week, recording their fifth win of the season and turning Brisbane’s battle with Melbourne this Saturday into a must-win for the Lions to secure a top-four spot.
While the boilover result won’t stop the Lions making the finals, it does put St Kilda firmly in contention, and is also a timely warning to the rest of the league that they are not to be underestimated.
Key forward Jesse Wardlaw, who jumped ship from the Lions to the Saints this season, booted two goals but it was pressure and inside 50 marks that powered the Saints to victory.
The Saints still need everything to go right for them to leap into the top eight, including keeping a close eye on the Sydney Swans, who also produced a surprise win last round against Collingwood.
The Swans helped give new recruit Chloe Molloy bragging rights against her old side when the women in red and white slipped into eighth place, nudging the Magpies out to 10th.
The Swans sit eighth and will face Fremantle in Perth, a game which is difficult to call given its location.
Earlier on in the season Collingwood appeared to be a lock for a finals campaign but if things don’t go their way this weekend their season might be over.
The Magpies face Richmond on Sunday without their star All-Australian defender Ruby Schleicher, who suffered a PCL injury against the Swans.
St Kilda sit one place above the Magpies and have a winnable game against Carlton, so Collingwood will need to deliver an emphatic win, despite scoring not being a strong suit so far this season.
The Kangaroos and Adelaide sit second and third respectively and, after playing each other last week, the three-time premier Crows look set to contend deep into finals yet again, with ball magnets Anne Hatchard and Ebony Marinoff dominating in typical form.
While North Melbourne have dramatically improved this season, they have struggled to defeat the best teams in the league. But getting within three points of the Crows last week suggests they may be coming good at just the right time of the season.
With Ash Riddell and Jasmine Garner averaging 31 and 29 disposals respectively, the Kangaroos are looking fierce if they can find the confidence to finally edge their top four neighbours.
Essendon – who, like Sydney, were among the final intake of expansion sides last season – seem comfortably placed in fifth, but with their remaining game against the Suns, who sit directly below them, they could still miss out on finals should they lose and Geelong, Sydney and St Kilda all win.
There’s a lot to prove for this Essendon side, who in the words of star defender Maddy Prespakis are desperate to “show the men how it’s done” in the Bombers camp.
Meanwhile, Saturday night’s marquee match-up between the Lions and Melbourne has plenty on the line. If the Lions win they guarantee themselves a top-four finish, while Melbourne must win to finish top of the ladder and lock in a home final.
If Brisbane lose, Essendon and the Suns could leapfrog them, and if Melbourne lose, Adelaide could be waiting in the wings to take top spot.
With almost every spot in the top eight under threat, and every team from 10th upwards still entertaining finals hopes, everything could hang on a nail-biting Sunday afternoon triple-header.
