You’ll hear from evaluators that Wilson is still a work in progress, and that’s true. But Wilson is the defensive version of Anthony Richardson in this draft — a prospect with so much ridiculous upside, and so much he’s shown on the field already, that the defense-light Raiders made the right pick here. Pairing him with Max Crosby in an AFC West with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and (you’ll pardon the expression) Russell Wilson should even things out a bit.
Height: 6′ 6⅛” (95th percentile) Weight: 271 (68th)
40-Yard Dash: N/A
10-Yard Split: N/A
Bench Press: 23 reps (48th)
Vertical Jump: N/A
Broad Jump: N/A
3-Cone Drill: N/A
20-Yard Shuttle: N/A
Wingspan: N/A
Arm Length: 35⅝” (96th)
Hand Size: 9⅝” (34th)
Bio: Wilson was a three-star recruit out of high school, but he chose Texas A&M over offers from (among other schools) Arkansas, Baylor, Florida, Houston, Kansas, Mississippi State, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, SMU, TCU, Texas and Washington State. He entered the transfer portal after two seasons (one a redshirt) with the Aggies and landed with the Red Raiders. Over four seasons on the field, mostly with Texas Tech, Wilson totaled 18 sacks, 18 quarterback hits, 76 quarterback hurries, 75 tackles, 69 stops, and one forced fumble. He also had one pass breakup on five targets in coverage.
Wilson had 1,035 snaps outside the tackles, 493 over the tackles, and 126 in the B-gaps. He also had five in the box and three in the slot… for whatever reason.
Stat to Know: Wilson’s Pressure Rate +/- (Pressure Rate above or below an expected pressure rate as determined by the quarterback’s drop type, the down and distance, the score, the use of play action, and the defender’s alignment) of 11.2% was by far the highest for any player on this list. He also had the highest Quick Pressure Rate (percentage of pass rushes that resulted in the player generating the first pressure on the quarterback and doing so in 2.5 seconds or less) at 6%.
Strengths: Wilson’s pass-rush plans are still very unrefined, but there are plays in which he’s able to take his athletic gifts and fierce determination to the pocket, and just wreck multiple blockers. When you hear about Wilson’s utterly insane upside, plays like this sack against North Carolina State, in which he demolishes the left tackle and the left guard on the way to the quarterback, this is what is meant by that.
Where you really get excited about Wilson’s NFL potential is when you watch him just erase guards as an inside pass-rusher. Wilson isn’t just an upright athlete with no pass-rush subtleties; he can bring strong hands and some bend and flexibility as a multi-gap guy. His NFL coaches should maximize the heck out of it.
And you’d better block Wilson with intent when he’s coming after your running back, or it’s going to start looking like Shark Week out there.
Weaknesses: Wilson’s rawness and his eagerness to go kill the guy with the ball will make him look like an overmatched kid on the playground at times. He is susceptible and vulnerable to misdirection…
…and he wouldn’t be my first choice to cover anyone in the slot or from a zone exchange.
Not that it’s easy to get Wilson in a situation where he’s losing the leverage advantage, but if you compress his wingspan off the edge, that’s where his lack of a pass-rush plan shows up. He’s so used to dominating college tackles, it could be a rough go for a while against the best the NFL has to offer. He must develop counters to attack after he’s been beaten, and he must avoid a tendency to come off the snap late.
Conclusion: Selecting Wilson in the first round, which some team will undoubtedly do, will give that team the fifth-year option, and that’s important in this case. Wilson might need what amounts to a redshirt NFL season in which he puts it all together from a technical perspective, and becomes the best version of what his physical upside will allow. That should be a terrifying thought for anybody who has to block him, because we just don’t see potential like this at the position very often.
NFL Comparison: Jason Pierre-Paul. The Giants selected Pierre-Paul out of USF with the 15th pick in the 2010 draft despite the fact that Pierre-Paul was quite raw, because his tools were off the charts. Sound familiar? Well, it took Pierre-Paul exactly one season to blow up in the NFL’s face, with a 17-sack, 72-pressure season in 2011 in which he was just about unblockable from anywhere in Big Blue’s fronts. I would not be at all surprised if Wilson was able to make the same jump.
