The Mariners know how to undercut expectations with the best of them. It's become something of an art form, breaking hearts every time they're touted as a team to reckon with.
In the long litany of oversold and under-performing Mariners teams, this year's model has hit all the frustratingly familiar notes. Struggling vets? Check. Overmatched youngsters? Check. Damaging injuries? Check. Lack of foresight in team building? Check. Sub-optimal financial commitment in the offseason? Check.
The result so far is what everyone has seen — a wretched stretch of 19 losses in 25 games that has put the Mariners at a crisis point just one-fourth of the way through the season. All is not lost, despite the utterly warranted collective wailing that grew in intensity as the losses mounted. Just look at the Atlanta Braves, who were still under .500 in late July last year and won the World Series. The 2019 Washington Nationals were 19-31 on May 23 and did the same. But it's way too late to be early, as Yogi might have said — and turnarounds of that nature are exceedingly rare.
At this point, I'll fully admit I misjudged this year's team, at least as they've performed so far.
I wasn't counting on Mitch Haniger's ankle injury that will put him out until the All-Star break or even later, with severe ramifications for a lineup that didn't have the depth to sustain the loss of a big bat in the middle of the order.
I wasn't counting on Jarred Kelenic falling into another rut that forced his demotion to the minor leagues, weakening the lineup even more. I mean, it was obviously a possibility, based on his struggles last year, but Kellenic convincingly explained in spring training why he wouldn't be susceptible to the long dry spells of his rookie season; much of my optimism for 2022 was predicated on a belief that Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez were ready to provide a dose of youthful energy and offensive pop. I was half right. Rodriguez has been as good as advertised and maybe even better. But Kelenic's failures deepened the hole in the lineup and has led to a repeat of last year's dilemma where the bottom of the order is non-productive. Perhaps the return of Kyle Lewis on Tuesday (as a DH only) will help rectify that.
Along the same lines, I wasn't counting on Jesse Winker's slow start. Touted as a lethal bat against right-handed pitching, Winker instead has just a .488 OPS against them going into Tuesday's game; that's roughly 600 points below last year's 1.070, which will have to change drastically, and soon, for the Mariners to take off.
I wasn't counting on what has so far been middling results from Robbie Ray, the Mariners' big offseason acquisition. A Cy Young winner last year, Ray has had several opportunities already to do what aces do — rise up when the team is slumping to slam the door on the opposition and change the vibe. It hasn't happened often enough, as Ray keeps getting victimized by one poor inning per outing that thwarts that effort.
I thought the bullpen had enough depth to overcome a regression that was predicted by many. A dropoff was to be expected after a nearly flawless performance last year that was the biggest factor in the Mariners' overcoming their negative run differential to post 90 wins. But after losing Casey Sadler for the season and Ken Giles all year so far, the decline of the relief corps has been a big factor in Seattle's struggles.
It's one thing for me to be wrong. The architects of the team are charged with augmenting the roster so that such deficiencies can be overcome. But the lack of roster depth, as well as organizational depth at the upper levels of the minor leagues, has been exposed this year. The Mariners had to turn to journeymen such as Stephen Souza Jr. and Mike Ford as stopgaps, and recently signed veteran Justin Upton, who hasn't played since the Angels cut him in spring training.
The Mariners also seemingly over-valued Abraham Toro, acquired last year in a late July trade for reliever Kendall Graveman that roiled the clubhouse. Forced into nearly every-day playing time after Haniger's injury, Toro sits at .179 with a .603 OPS through Monday.
I had a former Mariners player tell me recently that he honestly believes there's some sort of bad karma that permeates players once they get to Seattle. It was his explanation for why many players seem to wilt when they arrive and thrive when they leave.
I don't necessarily buy that, but it's undeniable that some force — either man-made or cosmic — is at play here that has sapped the Mariners of the good vibes that prevailed last season. They returned from the recent road trip with the same record as the Orioles, who lost 110 games last year, and just a half game better than Oakland, which essentially punted on this season by gutting its roster.
Suffice it to say, the fun differential has been negative in 2022.
That could still change, as it did last year at a similar juncture. The similarities to Seattle's sub-par 2021 start are considerable, as Ryan Divish recently detailed. Also, the extra wild-card team added this year is a great equalizer. Run off a stretch of eight wins in 10 games (conceivable with an upcoming stretch against the Orioles and Rangers), and suddenly things don't look nearly as dire as they do right now.
Unless and until that happens, however, the Mariners will have to live with the fallout of another season of dashed hopes.
