How bad is it in New England? Well, through the early games Sunday the Patriots were host to two of the four worst quarterback performances of Week 5.
That means Mac Jones was so bad he warranted replacement. And his replacement, Bailey Zappe, was so bad he made Jones look like a reasonable option. By their powers combined the New Orleans Saints handed Bill Belichick the worst home loss of his storied career.
Jones and Zappe weren’t good, but they also weren’t alone. A pair of NFL candidates also turned in regrettable performances — one in a win. So while the Patriots are the schadenfreude main course, other helpings were served up across the league.
Who was the worst quarterback this week? Fortunately, we’ve got tools to better understand just how damaging these underwhelming performances were. Using the advanced stat expected points added (EPA) can gauge how much a quarterback brings to the table compared to a typical player.
By comparing each passer’s Week 5 EPA against their 2022 and 2023 combined average, we get a better picture of just how frustrating their days were. And we can find both of those thanks to The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his incredibly useful stats sites RBSDM.com and HabitatRing.com. So let’s take a look at who disappointed the most in the fifth game of the 2023 season.
6
Bailey Zappe, New England Patriots
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: 1.8
Week 5 EPA: -7.6
Difference: 9.4 points worse
Spoiler alert: Zappe won’t be the only Patriot to make an appearance on this week’s list. The only thing that kept him from being exactly as damaging as Mac Jones was a lack of opportunity.
Zappe completed one-third of his pass attempts. Mac Jones was equally as bad as he was on a per-play basis. Yep, keep reading.
5
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: 2.2
Week 5 EPA: -7.8
Difference: 10 points worse
Russell Wilson in the first half:
9-11, 68 yards, one touchdown, zero interceptions, 45 rushing yards, three scoring drives in four opportunities (and a safety via intentional grounding)
Russ in the second half:
11-20, 128 yards, one touchdown, zero interceptions, four rushing yards, one fumble, one scoring drive in eight opportunities
Once again, Wilson’s inability to improvise after halftime has left the Broncos reeling. More importantly, he stank while wearing one of the coolest, cleanest uniforms in football. Unforgivable.
4
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: 10.2
Week 5 EPA: -2
Difference: 12.2 points worse
This was not a notably bad game for Tagovailoa. He threw for more than 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns. But he also had a couple interceptions on short throws — including one in the red zone that blossomed into a 96-yard pick-six — that ultimately tarnished a sweatless win for the Dolphins. A better team than the Giants could have turned this horrible throw into an actual problem for Miami.
First INT as a Giant!
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/B5nTpr5h4A
— New York Giants (@Giants) October 8, 2023
Tagovailoa took advantage of his impact players and thrived with short targets and long runs after the catch. That led to a boring passing chart and a win by which advanced metrics weren’t especially impressed.
This wouldn’t be notable if Tagovailoa hadn’t been so good to start the season. But he emerged as an early MVP frontrunner whose 10.2 EPA per game ranks fourth among all quarterbacks since 2022. Thus, a mediocre week serves as a significant dropoff for the Dolphins’ quarterback, even when it led to a 16-point win.
3
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: 4.6
Week 5 EPA: -12.5
Difference: 17.1 points worse
Jackson started off strong against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the Pittsburgh pass rush eventually ground down his protection and left him hearing footsteps with each dropback. Despite that, a late muffed punt put the Ravens in position to seal the game with a late touchdown.
Instead, a badly-thrown fade to Odell Beckham Jr. resulted in an end zone interception and zero points for a drive that started at the Pittsburgh seven-yard line.
First career INT 💪 @JoeyPorterJr
📲: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/T87FSnfvVk pic.twitter.com/eS2T3vpyEf
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) October 8, 2023
After Kenny Pickett rode George Pickens to a go-ahead touchdown in the final two minutes, Jackson had a chance to shatter the hearts of Steeler fans at not-Heinz Field. Instead, he got swallowed up in the pocket and handed the Steelers an opportunity to smother the waning seconds of the clock.
SMITTY FORCES THE FUMBLE 🙌
📲: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/T87FSnfvVk pic.twitter.com/e9AZF9aHaE
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) October 8, 2023
As circumstance would have it, a Steeler penalty gave Baltimore one last drive with 49 seconds to play and zero timeouts. Here’s how that turned out.
.@_TJWatt seals it for Pittsburgh!
📺: #BALvsPIT on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/LxW25sxPWA pic.twitter.com/AuEcei7ihU— NFL (@NFL) October 8, 2023
Suffice to say, the Steelers roundly harassed Jackson, forcing him into the worst game of his season so far. While his wideouts did him few favors — they had six drops in the first half alone — the veteran’s inability to deal with Pittsburgh’s pressure turned fatal. Baltimore probably should have won in Week 5; Jackson’s inability to pull the trigger on big plays prevented it.
2
Joshua Dobbs, Arizona Cardinals
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: 1.5
Week 5 EPA: -19.8
Difference: 21.3 points worse
The bloom had to come off Dobbs’ onion at some point. That it happened against the Bengals’ 25th-ranked defense was the surprise.
The journeyman backup was one of the most uplifting stories of the first four weeks after keeping things together for an Arizona Cardinals team with little intention to contend in 2023. Dobbs could hardly find breathing room after early success and stood by, mostly helpless, as an early 14-10 lead dissolved into a 34-20 loss.
CAM'S GOT THE JUICE (AND THE BALL)#CINatAZ | 📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/wGIKV1NODg
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) October 8, 2023
Dobbs’ three turnovers led to 10 Bengals points. This could have been survivable if the Arizona passing game weren’t thoroughly neutered late. Through his first four drives, Dobbs had completed seven of 11 passes for 83 yards and two touchdowns without an interception — a 126.1 passer rating. In the eight drives that followed, he was eight of 21 for 83 yards, zero touchdowns and two interceptions — a 10.7 rating.
Of course, this wasn’t fatal to the Cardinals. It fulfilled their ultimate goal of losing games and angling toward what could be two top five draft picks next spring. Dobbs was the worst he’s been this season, but it was in service to the franchise’s tank job — so Arizona can live with it.
1
Mac Jones, New England Patriots
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: -1.1
Week 5 EPA: -22.7
Difference: 21.6 points worse
I had modest optimism after the first two weeks of the season. Jones wasn’t particularly good, but he helped lead (failed) comeback efforts with relative composure and showed signs that he could pick up the pieces of an awful 2022 behind the playcalling of new coordinator Bill O’Brien.
This was doofus-brained behavior on my part.
TYRANN PICK-6!!!@Mathieu_Era takes it to the house! #Saints | 📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/NcLqKhCBlD
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) October 8, 2023
On one hand, Jones was without top targets JuJu Smith-Schuster and Demario Douglas due to injuries suffered during the game. One of his interceptions was a bobbled pass picked off after a deflection. On the other, neither one of those guys had anything to do with his stunning lack of pocket awareness or inability to make a simple damned pitch.
WE WILL TAKE THAT.
Cam recovers the fumble, SAINTS BALL.
📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/YZS6XCCPik
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) October 8, 2023
How are Patriots fans taking it?
Patriots fans start booing their offense after this sack 😳
🎥: @Saints pic.twitter.com/IpzIOz8VCl
— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) October 8, 2023
About as expected. The 2024 NFL Draft is 201 days away.
