We’re a little over one week into the NBA season entering Friday’s games, and while the sample sizes are still far too small for any conclusions, there are absolutely some elements from this very early set of games that are worth watching. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some early-season lineup combinations and assess what they mean for those teams moving forward.
Stats current as of games played through Thursday, Nov. 2.
Isaiah J. Downing/USA TODAY Sports
Celtics
Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porziņģis
In 2022 the Boston lineup of Marcus Smart, Al Horford, Robert Williams III, Tatum and Brown posted a 24.6 net rating in 443 minutes, the best net rating of any lineup with at least 400 minutes played dating back to ’08.
The current group may be better.
crafty on the cross ❌ pic.twitter.com/tx3cczW7zn
— Boston Celtics (@celtics) November 2, 2023
Buoyed by a dominant blowout of the Pacers, the Celts’ current starting five has now posted a 37.3 net rating in 72 minutes together, and the team is 4–0. The team is elite on both ends of the floor. Everybody can shoot and everybody can defend. It’s arguably the best group of perimeter defensive talent in any starting lineup, combined with a solid rim protector in Porziņģis. And on the other end of the floor, Boston’s five-out look seems to be too much space for defenses to, uh, defend. This five has potential to be one of the most dominant units in recent memory, and it’s living up to that potential to start the year.
Nuggets
Jamal Murray, Reggie Jackson, Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, Zeke Nnaji
Denver’s second unit—Murray anchoring with four reserves—is actually outperforming its vaunted starting lineup over the first five games of the season. This mostly bench group has an 8.6 net rating in 35 minutes compared to a 2.7 mark for the starters. Even if those will likely switch places at some point this season, the Nuggets getting this production from their bench is massive. If teams can’t beat Denver when Nikola Jokić is off the floor, then Denver becomes nearly unbeatable. Remember: A significant factor in Jokić’s two MVPs was how the team completely fell apart whenever he sat.
The Nuggets‘ bench doesn’t even have to be this good to make a massive impact on their fortunes. If Denver’s second group is simply a plus as opposed to hemorrhaging leads, the Nuggets are going to win a ton of games on top of their 4–1 start.
Lakers
LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Christian Wood
The Lakers (3–2) still need to figure out their starting lineup—they’ve been getting throttled in first quarters—but they have found something with the combo of LeBron, AD and Wood. The trio has played 44 minutes together, 24 of which have come across three fourth quarters. Though seemingly big and awkward on paper, it has worked. The trio has a comical 63.7 net rating in those 44 minutes. Wood has been solid closing games, even making big defensive plays, like grabbing an important board or coming up with a key block.
The behind-the-back dime is so tough @KingJames pic.twitter.com/HRU2kcJGUY
— Los Angeles Lakers (@Lakers) October 31, 2023
I have no idea what to make of this group. Wood is not known for being a defender, and the next thing you know the Lakers are throwing him onto Kevin Durant. Dealing with injuries to Jarred Vanderbilt and now Gabe Vincent, Darvin Ham still seems to be experimenting with lineups. I have no clue how viable the James, Davis and Wood mix will be long term, but they have won the Lakers a couple of games already, and it will be fascinating to see where they eventually settle down.
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Bucks
Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez
These are the Bucks’ four best players—they’ve played only 25 minutes together over three games and their net rating is exactly 0.0, with a 101.8 efficiency on both ends. This is obviously a combination worth monitoring because if Milwaukee (2–2) is going to win a title, this quartet must play well together.
First and foremost, Middleton needs to get healthy no matter who the fifth piece in the lineup will be. Middleton has been playing under a minutes restriction to start the year, giving him less time to jell with new teammate Lillard. In addition to his scoring, Middleton’s defense is much needed after the departure of Holiday.
The offensive rating should tick up, but it's worth watching. The Bucks still look disjointed in the half court with the addition of Lillard, and he’s not running as many pick-and-rolls with Giannis as the screener as many were expecting. This team deserves time to work out the kinks, and it may simply be a very early-season blip. Still, unlike its main rival in Boston, Milwaukee hasn’t exactly hit the ground running.
Benny Sieu/USA TODAY Sports
Heat
The Heat (1–4) have been one of the most disappointing teams over the first week-plus, and a missed Cade Cunningham buzzer beater is the only reason they aren’t 0–5. The three-man combo of Butler, Herro and Adebayo has posted a 5.0 net rating, but a bricky 109.3 offensive rating, in 66 minutes together. These three don’t have the excuse of learning to play with one another. This is now the fifth year of this group, and they struggle immensely with offense in the half court. So far, Miami has been bad on offense and defense. It’s safer to assume Erik Spoelstra can conjure up a good defense. But unless the Heat go on another miraculous three-point hot streak, their offense is going to be a slog. How much longer can those three fail to score together before the team tries to make some changes?
