Republican Kari Lake’s victory in Tuesday’s Arizona Senate primary sets up a widely expected must-watch matchup in the battle for control in the 119th Congress.
But in a trio of key House races, the picture was far less clear.
Lake’s team quickly circulated a strategy memo contending that she is actually better positioned in her race against Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego than most other Republicans seeking to switch control of Senate seats. Sen. Krysten Sinema, an independent who is not seeking reeelection, was elected as a Democrat.
“Heading into the General Election, Lake is currently in a stronger polling position than all other Senate candidates in competitive races except for Montana — a state that Trump won by 16% in 2020 — despite Gallego spending tens of millions of dollars during the primary,” Lake’s advisers said in the memo late Tuesday night.
Lake was ahead of Pima County Sheriff Mark Lamb by about 16 percentage points early Wednesday morning, with votes still being counted. The Associated Press called the race at 11:44 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday.
With West Virginia’s Republican Gov. Jim Justice expected to cruise to victory in the race to replace retiring Sen. Joe Manchin III — an independent who, like Sinema, was elected as a Democrat — the Lake campaign argues that only Republican Tim Sheehy in Montana is in a better position to flip a seat in terms of the margin between the Democrats and Republicans.
Lake’s campaign memo, however, cites a RealClearPolitics polling average that showed Gallego ahead or tied in every poll in their collection of surveys since January. The memo also referenced an internal poll showing Lake with a lead that was within the margin of error.
Republicans would control the Senate if they flip a net of one seat and win the White House in November, since the vice president can break 50-50 ties. Flipping two or more seats would give them the majority regardless of how the presidential race goes.
Gallego’s campaign, in a memo of its own, said, “The bottom line: Kari Lake is the same candidate Arizonans rejected less than two years ago.” Lake was the GOP nominee for governor during that cycle, narrowly losing to Democrat Katie Hobbs.
The Lake argument is, in part, that if former President Donald Trump prevails over Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 general election for president, it would be unlikely for the Senate race to go in a different direction, noting that Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, is the only candidate who won in a state that backed for the opposite party’s nominee for president in 2020. “Ruben Gallego is no Susan Collins,” the memo said.
Many of the Arizona polls cited were conducted when President Joe Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee, and it may be too early to tell if the change at the top of the ticket has shifted those numbers. There is also a wild card: Arizona’s other senator, Democrat Mark Kelly, is reportedly under consideration to be Harris’ running mate.
No call in 8th District
Kelly defeated venture capitalist Blake Masters in the Senate race in 2022. Masters ran Tuesday in a wide-open House primary in Arizona’s 8th District, but early returns showed him behind Abe Hamadeh in what might be the nastiest Republican primary of the year.
The Associated Press described that race as too early to call, citing uncounted votes cast on primary day, along with late-arriving mail ballots. The primary winner is on track to serve in the next Congress, replacing the retiring Rep. Debbie Lesko, R-Ariz. Lesko opted to run for the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors.
Trump and Lake initially endorsed Hamadeh, while Republican vice presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance of Ohio backed Masters. In a late Saturday night post on Truth Social, however, Trump sought to hedge his bets in the race by amending his endorsement to back Masters as well.
Democratic challengers unclear
Former state Rep. Amash Shah, a medical doctor, was ahead by less than 3 percentage points with an estimated 77 percent of the votes counted in the six-candidate Democratic primary to take on Rep. David Schweikert in Arizona’s 1st District.
Three other top candidates — Andrei Cherny, Marlene Galen-Woods and Connor O’Callaghan — were close behind Shah. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the race for Schweikert’s seat Tilt Republican.
In the open 3rd District, the race for the Democratic nomination to fill the seat being vacated by Gallego was likewise too early to call. Yassamin Ansari, a former member of the Phoenix City Council, had a lead of less than 4 points over Raquel Terán in a three-candidate race. Terán is another former state legislator who also used to chair the state’s Democratic Party.
Other races were not as close. In the 2nd District, Rep. Eli Crane, R-Ariz., spent over $4 million and prevailed with nearly 80 percent of the vote, besting former Yavapai County Supervisor Jack Smith. Crane was among the Republicans who helped take down former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and at least one McCarthy-aligned group advertised against Crane.
Rep. Juan Ciscomani, R-Ariz., and his Democratic opponent from the last cycle, Kirsten Engel, a law professor and former member of both the state House and Senate, secured their respective party’s nominations for a 2024 rematch in the Tucson area’s 6th District. That race is also rated Tilt Republican by Inside Elections.
“Southern Arizonans see Representative Juan Ciscomani fighting every day to end the border crisis and the pain of inflation. Juan has earned his reputation for working across party lines to solve problems for Southern Arizona,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Ben Petersen said in a statement.
Rep. Suzan DelBene, the Washington Democrat who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in her own statement after the results were announced, “Kirsten Engel is the pragmatic, solution-oriented leader that Arizonans deserve. Unlike Ciscomani, Kirsten isn’t here to play partisan games, she wants to deliver results. That’s why Southern Arizona will send her to Congress this November.”
Engel’s primary was not contested, while Ciscomani was ahead with more than 60 percent of the vote after The Associated Press called the race, which came not long after Arizona began reporting results.
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