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Belfast Live

National

Brendan Hughes

Lagan Valley Assembly election 2022 - Constituency candidates as Jeffrey Donaldson seeks return to Stormont

Jeffrey Donaldson DUP Stormont Assembly Edwin Poots Paul Givan Sorcha Eastwood SDLP TUV Alliance

Lagan Valley has been the focus of much attention ahead of the Stormont election due to the DUP's internal wranglings over candidate selections.

For months the party grappled with the conundrum of having two seats but three big hitters seeking election - DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, ex-First Minister Paul Givan and former leader Edwin Poots.

The party had initially talked up the prospect of taking a third seat based on how former MLA Brenda Hale narrowly missed out in the 2017 Assembly poll.

But Mr Poots attempting to switch constituencies to South Down before moving to South Belfast following the death of Christopher Stalford is an admission of defeat on this front.

It was thought the party would still run three candidates after councillor Paul Rankin was co-opted to Mr Poots' seat for just two short weeks in March before the Assembly was dissolved.

However, the decision to only field two - Sir Jeffrey and Mr Givan - suggests a nervousness from the party as the election draws nearer. Sir Jeffrey seems likely to top the poll, having represented the constituency at Westminster for almost 25 years.

But with the DUP refusing to re-enter Executive power-sharing until its issues with Brexit's Northern Ireland Protocol are addressed, will he take up his seat immediately?

Amid Stormont's instability there is speculation he could temporarily co-opt someone else to the seat so that he can continue as an MP, thus delaying a Westminster by-election for now.

The other three seats in the constituency, which includes Lisburn as well as Hillsbrough and Dromore, are currently held by the UUP, Alliance Party and SDLP.

Ulster Unionist deputy leader and former firefighter Robbie Butler should comfortably retain his seat.

While the party is again running a second candidate, the choice of a relative unknown in activist Laura Turner appears more aimed at building her profile for a council seat next year.

MLA Trevor Lunn was elected in 2017 for Alliance as their sole candidate. He quit the party in 2020 due to unexplained "tensions" and is not standing for re-election.

This time the party is fielding two candidates, local councillors Sorcha Eastwood and David Honeyford, with the ambition of securing a second seat while also bringing the first back into the Alliance fold.

Ms Eastwood seems likely to poll ahead of Mr Honeyford. She is the much more high-profile of the two, being a regular media contributor for the party.

She also took on Sir Jeffrey in the 2019 Westminster election, boosting Alliance to second place with an almost 18% surge in the party's share of the vote.

Balancing first preferences and transfers between the two candidates will be the difficult task if Mr Honeyford is to take the second seat.

If they manage to do so SDLP MLA Pat Catney - a gain for the party in 2017 that surprised many - would be the one to lose out.

The SDLP is expressing confidence that the former publican can retain the seat with the same transfer friendliness that brought him ahead of the DUP's Brenda Hale.

The party will be hoping his work in the Assembly on issues such as a bill tackling period poverty will help him pick up transfers from other parties and make his seat more secure in May.

Among the other candidates on the ballot is Lorna Smyth for TUV.

The Armed Forces veteran in February replaced academic Dr William Kitchen as the party's candidate after he withdrew for family reasons.

While Ms Smyth is not expected to gain a seat for TUV, her vote should give an indication of the extent of unionist dissatisfaction with the DUP in its leader's heartland.