The long, slow polling decline of the Government suggests it has lost touch with voters - its primary task now is one of reconnection
Opinion: Labour's loss in the Hamilton West by-election capped off a tough and disappointing year for the government. Some have put it down to the specific circumstances of the by-election or to low voter turnout, but the result was consistent with the overall political trends of the last year. To that extent, Labour’s defeat was no great surprise, so cannot be dismissed as having no bearing on next year's possible election outcome the way some are pretending.
Governments rarely lose seats at by-elections - this is only the fourth time since 1967 this has happened. But in two of the three previous instances, the government of the day went on to win the next general election, meaning there is still much to play for, for all parties.
An analysis of the opinion polls tells the political story of 2022 and sets the scene for 2023. In November 2021, with the Auckland lockdown still in full swing and the National Party getting over its leadership change, Labour’s average lead over National was about 13 percentage points, and the Labour/Green bloc was outpolling National and ACT by just over 5 percentage points - more than enough to remain in government.
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However, by the end of January, with the summer holidays largely over, and the country just moved into the red setting because of the Omicron outbreak, the two blocs were almost neck and neck, and the Government would have been reliant on Te Pati Māori to remain in office.
Over the following three months, as the start of the wind down of pandemic restrictions began, and the cost-of-living crisis started to surge, the Government’s position deteriorated significantly. This was even though the inflation increase was largely because of external factors such as the international economic reaction to the pandemic and the escalating war in Ukraine, which began in February. In response, the Government had released a major cost-of-living package in March, including a boost to Working for Families and superannuation payments, the introduction of half-price public transport, and the cut in fuel excise taxes. However, by April, the polls were showing the National/ACT bloc ahead of the Government for the first time since before the pandemic.
The May Budget, which included the one-off cost-of-living payments to 2.1 million New Zealanders and additional funding to Pharmac for new medicines, did nothing to arrest the Government’s sliding fortunes. By June, the National/ACT bloc had solidified its lead over the Labour/Green bloc, but National’s support was starting to taper off in the high 30 percent range.
The ongoing fallout from the Sam Uffindell affair after the June Tauranga by-election saw the first drop in National’s average polling since October, leaving the centre-right and centre-left blocs virtually even in public support by August. There were also the first signs of what has been so far a slow but steady rise in support for New Zealand First. While it yet remains below the threshold to win seats in Parliament, it is an increasing possibility it could be a factor in next year’s election.
Since September, as the cost-of-living crisis has bitten more deeply, and controversial policies such as Three Waters have dominated the public agenda, support for the Government has resumed its steady wane, continuing the trend from February. Polling averages now consistently show a small but ever-increasing lead for the National/ACT bloc. Labour’s October average poll rating was just over 10 percentage points lower than the previous October, whereas National’s was up by just under 13 points. Support for the Greens has hardly shifted over the year, and ACT has dropped about 5 points to now be consistently polling at about 11 percent.
Against that backdrop, a hefty loss in the Hamilton West bellwether seat by-election was inevitable, regardless of turnout or any local factors. More significantly, the continuing steady decline in Labour’s poll ratings highlights the size of the challenge it faces as it approaches next year’s election.
This long, slow polling decline strongly suggests the Government has simply lost touch with voters, and that its primary task now is one of reconnection. It is especially telling that the March cost-of-living package, the Budget’s family assistance announcements, and the improved access to childcare announced at last month’s Labour Party conference have all failed to halt the ongoing slippage in Labour’s support. These were all measures friendly to Labour’s base, but they have yielded no political dividend.
With the Government now pledging its hitherto comparatively lax approach to government spending is set to come under far greater scrutiny in next year’s Budget as the international economic situation worsens, the prospect of significant additional social spending looks remote. The Prime Minister has signalled a back-to-basics approach next year as the Government reins in the scope of its actions to focus on the economy. This has led some to speculate that an effete TVNZ/RNZ planned merger might be abandoned, but this is hardly likely to affect the Government’s fortunes either way.
The polls suggest voters stopped listening from about March, so it is hard to see a way out of the Government’s dilemma. Until people are prepared to engage once more, neither new policies nor existing policies abandoned are likely to have much impact. Similarly, as history has shown, a Cabinet reshuffle will make little difference to the Government’s ongoing fortunes.
All governments build up political baggage that eventually overwhelms them. This government is no different as the scars of Three Waters and now MIQ, reignited by the Chief Ombudsman’s damning report, show.
In the face of declining poll fortunes and these unpleasant memories, Labour’s best chance for 2023 rests with being able to put these behind it, something it seems unwilling to do so far, and present a bold, new positive face for the future. A makeover is very difficult to do convincingly after five years in government, especially when the trend to a change of government is solidifying.
Next year promises to be “interesting”. Meanwhile, my best wishes to everyone for a happy and relaxing Christmas break.
