George Osborne is an unlikely inspiration for Labour strategists but as the party plans the next stage of how to tackle the government’s autumn statement, there is something there from his playbook.
Two shadow cabinet ministers said the party can learn from how badly tarnished Labour had been by attacks from David Cameron and Osborne. It was a two-pronged approach, blaming Labour for the economic damage and saying only the Conservatives had a plan.
Labour now uses the inverse: the Conservatives “crashed the economy” and it is the party with the long-term economic plan, a favourite phrase of Osborne.
But there are some crucial differences that senior officials are keen to underline – Osborne used the ploy as a way to get the public onboard with austerity and to put Labour under pressure to accept spending cuts as a necessity.
“This is not about proposing the same solutions, it’s showing we are different, you can trust us on public services, on climate change,” one shadow Treasury source said. “Their answer was austerity but that is not our answer.
“Labour will talk about growing the economy because when Labour was in government, we did that before. And it meant that we had better public services and wages were higher.”
But as well as growth, questions on tax policy are likely to dominate in the coming months. Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves are working on a big policy intervention that will be a major overhaul of the tax system, including examining wealth taxes which are likely to form part of the manifesto offer.
“Fundamentally, Labour should be looking to completely rebalance the tax system towards wealth and assets,” one shadow minister said. “But the internal work on that is not over.”
Economic credibility is the main issue for Starmer and Reeves, and where Sunak has given the Conservatives a boost in the most recent polling.
In the latest Opinium survey, the Conservatives have regained a lead as the best party to manage the economy. But Labour are still a healthy 16 points ahead in the polls overall and praise from the Tesco chair, John Allan, that Labour is “the only team on the field” when it came to the growth plan was “like gold dust”, an ally of Reeves said.
The party has a “grid” of big endorsements from business leaders and new donors that it hopes to roll out over the next few months. Reeves has been on a non-stop offensive to meet businesses and the party plans a major business conference in early December with a high-level CEO drinks party.
Despite the manifesto work being done on tax policy, some Labour MPs feel they risk being left exposed after the autumn statement on the party’s plans for tax rises and spending cuts.
There is a nervousness that the changes Labour has actually confirmed are limited to abolishing non-dom status, a new windfall tax and abolishing the charitable status of private schools.
The most lucrative – a new windfall tax – is likely to be adopted again by the Conservatives in the autumn statement and Jeremy Hunt is also looking at changes to non-dom status, leaving Labour with little in the tank.
“I’ll be slightly concerned if all we have to fund our pledges on free breakfast clubs or NHS workforce is taking a bit off private schools,” one senior MP said.
Several of those on the left of the party have been loudly making their own cases for wealth taxes, many of whom are balking at the charm offensive by Reeves and Starmer towards the City of London.
There is also no really developed answer for MPs to give on spending cuts – and whether Labour would also need to undertake them. For now, the briefings are to turn the question around and blame 12 years of Conservative policies for making challenging decisions necessary.
Reeves is militant on borrowing, all spending pledges have to be hypothecated. One shadow cabinet minister said the party had to be disciplined about only borrowing for investment.
“I think the shadow Treasury team are very much still in ‘No’ mode when it comes to big ideas, although I think election pressures will start to change that over the course of the next year,” another shadow cabinet minister said. “But of course it remains a big frustration among colleagues that we have big plans we want to announce but we aren’t given the go ahead.”
The other thing worrying some shadow cabinet ministers is the perceived lack of long-term strategy around big fiscal events.
When Liz Truss was in No 10, Labour had intended to match the government’s eight supply side reforms with offers of their own, starting with a new policy on low-cost broadband and David Blunkett’s major policy paper on skills, but then – amid the chaos of her government – no further public progress was made on Labour’s own offer.
There are tentative plans to launch Gordon Brown’s commission on devolution this month. The proposals – which were leaked to the Guardian this summer – contains radical plans for devolution in Scotland, Wales and English regions as well as constitutional shake-ups such as abolishing the House of Lords.
The commission has split the shadow cabinet, several of whom strongly object to some proposals but others would like to see the work given a major platform as part of Labour’s growth plan.
“It’s the biggest piece of work Keir has commissioned, it needs a huge platform with Gordon, Keir, speaking alongside all the metro mayors and Scottish and Welsh leaders,” one said. “At the moment, we still seem unsure what exactly we do with it.”
But despite some gripes, there is a feeling of growing confidence across most of the party, especially in Starmer. Shadow ministers, who have begun a programme of preparations for government, say they are starting to develop plans for the first 100 days of government, which would include legislation on workers’ rights and plans to press the button on a raft of investments.
Reeves previewed what those might be in a speech this week at the Eden Project: carbon capture and storage, electric battery factories, tripling solar power in places such as Cornwall, and kickstarting floating offshore wind.
That is part of the “mirror image” strategy, which will contrast with the Osborne blueprint, one senior adviser said. “Whenever we get the space like this, we really need to use it. We have to push really hard our positive plan for growth, to show there is an alternative.”
