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Daily Mirror
Daily Mirror
Politics
Dan Bloom

Labour surge to highest-ever leads over the Tories in four record-breaking polls

Labour have notched up record-breaking leads over the Tories in four separate bombshell polls, all out tonight.

Four major polling companies all simultaneously said it was the highest lead they had ever recorded for Keir Starmer's party after turmoil on the markets.

A YouGov survey for the Times put the party on a blistering 33-point lead - demolishing Labour's previous 21-year record of 17 points, which was set a few days ago.

Survation gave Labour a 21-point lead while Redfield & Wilton Strategies recorded a 17-point lead. And a Deltapoll survey for the Mirror tonight gives Labour a 19-point lead over the Tories.

All four results count among the biggest Labour leads in modern history ahead of the next election, which Liz Truss has said will happen in 2024.

Deltapoll put the party on 48% of the vote and the Conservatives on 29% after Keir Starmer ’s conference speech, and a Tory mini-Budget that sparked market turmoil.

It is Deltapoll’s biggest Labour lead since the firm was founded in 2018. It beats the firm’s previous record of 13 points, which was set four days ago.

The poll was carried out after Keir Starmer ’s conference speech, and a Tory mini-Budget that sparked market turmoil (ADAM VAUGHAN/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock)

Before tonight's other two, larger leads were revealed, the firm suggested the lead - calculated after stripping out ‘don’t knows’ - was Labour’s largest for 20 years.

While comparisons between firms are treated with caution, Deltapoll had said the last time a major pollster put Labour 19 points ahead was July 2002.

Labour are ahead of the Tories in every region, and in every age and social group except the over-65s, Leave voters, retired people, and homeowners who’ve paid off their mortgages.

Labour have a 17-point lead (53% v 36%) in seats the Tories gained in 2019 - including the so-called ‘Red Wall’ - while 18% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 now say they would back Labour.

And as interest rate hikes grip the nation, Labour have a bigger lead among homeowners paying a mortgage (35 points, 57% v 22%) than renters (28 points, 51% v 23%).

It comes days after YouGov gave Labour a 17-point lead, the highest the firm had ever recorded since it began polling in 2001. Today's YouGov survey almost doubles that lead in the space of a few days.

The YouGov lead - thought to be the largest by any party with any pollster since the late 1990s - will plunge the Tories into fresh turmoil ahead of their party conference on Sunday.

Deltapoll co-founder and director Joe Twyman said: “2022 has not been a good year for the Conservatives. The party has not led in the polls at any point throughout the entire year.

“Labour on the other hand, have seen their lead over the government grow and grow.

“The 19-point lead they enjoy in Deltapoll’s latest results represents yet another increase, with the Conservatives falling below 30%.

Liz Truss and Conservatives will be hoping that their party conference provides an opportunity for turning around their fortunes – and that the gap they have overcome stops increasing in size.”

Deltapoll’s online survey for the Mirror of 1,613 British adults, weighted to be representative of the population, was carried out between Tuesday and today.

It indicates the scale of the ‘post-conference’ bounce for Keir Starmer after his speech on Tuesday, where he declared: “As in 1945, 1964, 1997, this is a Labour moment.”

It also shows the depths of the doldrums for Tories, as the pound slumped and the Bank of England bailed out gilts to the tune of £65bn yesterday in the wake of the mini-Budget.

The Tory vote share in the poll - down two points since the weekend - is lower than the party’s worst post-war general election result of 31% in 1997.

Labour’s - up four points since the weekend - is close to the party’s highest-ever general election share of 48.8% in 1951.

The Lib Dems were on 9%, SNP and Greens each on 4%, Reform UK on 2% and Plaid Cymru and UKIP were each on 1%.

The poll found Labour have a 56-point lead among 18- to 24-year-olds (63% v 7%), a 50-point lead in 25-34s (66% v 16%), and a 25-point lead in those aged 35 to 54 (51% v 26%).

Keir Starmer enjoys a 10-point lead in those aged 55 to 64 (42% v 32%), though the Tories still have a 16-point lead in over-65s (47% v 31%), the poll suggests.

Labour caught 55% of Remainers while the Conservatives have only 19%. The Tories do still lead among Leavers, but only by nine points (45% v 36%).

Despite Tory tax and national insurance cuts, Labour lead by 28 points among working people (53% v 25%), the poll shows.

That includes by 32 points for full-time workers (55% v 23%), 11 points for part-time workers (43% v 32%), and 36 points for unemployed people (50% v 14%).

But the Tories have an 18-point lead among retired people (48% v 30%), and a 12-point lead among homeowners who’ve already paid off their mortgage (44% to 32%).

It comes after Liz Truss defended her mini-Budget, which cut income tax, National Insurance, corporation tax, Stamp Duty and the 45p top tax rate for the richest, fuelled by £72bn of borrowing next year alone.

She admitted cutting tax for the rich was “not necessarily popular” but claimed it "helps everybody because it helps grow the economy."

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