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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Donna Ferguson (now) and Andrew Sparrow (earlier)

Sunak says Labour taking victory for granted as Starmer calls on voters to ‘stop the chaos’ – as it happened

Police ​​Rishi Sunak Prison United Kingdom NPCC Sun Jeremy Hunt Rachel Reeves Sir Keir Starmer Post Office

Closing summary

Thank you for following along on this eventful day. The blog is now closing. Here is a closing summary:

  • The prime minister Rishi Sunak has called a surprise general election, which will be held on 4 July.

  • He said his premiership has been focused on restoring economic stability, which he described as “the bedrock of any future success”.

  • He claimed that voters don’t know what they’re getting with Keir Starmer because he doesn’t keep promises and Labour doesn’t have a plan.

  • The speech took place in the middle of torrential rain, and was drowned out by a protester playing a “trolling” song: ‘Things can only get Better’ by D:Ream, the anthem synonymous with New Labour’s 1997 general election landslide.

  • Starmer declared a vote for Labour is a vote for stability, and stressed his commitment to public service.

  • In Sunak’s first election rally, he emphasised the need for security in a world of multiple threats.

  • “Furious” Conservative MPs are said to be plotting to call off the general election and replace Sunak as leader before parliament is dissolved next Thursday. Some political journalists are reporting that several letters of no confidence in Sunak have been submitted to the chairman of the 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady.

That’s it from me, Donna Ferguson. If you want to continue following news on the election, head to our newly created General Election 2024 section.

Updated

The former Conservative MEP for London, Dr Charles Tannock, has announced on X that he will be voting Labour for the first time in the general election.

He endorsed Joe Powell, his Labour candidate in Kensington & Bayswater, for exuding an “appealing mix of competence, integrity and decency with internationalist and proEU instincts.”

Tory grandee Michael Heseltine believes we are facing the most “dishonest election campaign of modern times”.

The former Conservative front bencher told Sky News that both parties are deliberately avoiding the subject of Brexit. “And you can’t have a discussion about the country’s economy or its defence, or immigration or the environment and not discuss Brexit. We have cast ourselves off from our principal market, our most important partners.”

That is the underlying crisis that faces this country, he said. “It’s terrifying to me that while the public opinion is moving and the younger generation is frustrated, the two major parties think they can go through six weeks of campaigning and not have anything to say about it.”

Another rain-soaked front page pun has hit the newsstands.

“The deluge” is the headline of tomorrow’s Spectator:

Reuters reporters have been interviewing Tory politicians to try to find out why Sunak called the election today.

Several politicians in the Conservative party told the news agency that the prime minister may have realised that legal challenges could jeopardise his flagship scheme to send asylum seekers to Rwanda and that the government might not be able to deliver on any more tax cuts as promised.

On the other hand, Sunak may be hoping the first flights in the scheme to send asylum seekers to Rwanda could boost his party’s fortunes. The earliest possible date for those flights is 24 June, 10 days before the election.

If they don’t take off, one Conservative lawmaker said, Sunak could then blame “leftist lawyers”.

Overall, the mood of the Tories they spoke to was downbeat.

“It was good while it lasted,” said one of them.

The front pages of tomorrow’s newspapers are starting to come in and the headlines – on both the left and the right – poke fun at “rain-soaked Sunak”.

“Things can only get Wetter” is on the front page of The Telegraph, below ‘Sunak gambles on snap poll’:

“Drown & Out” is on the front page of The Mirror:

Updated

As we reported earlier, Sky News’ political correspondent Darren McCaffrey was thrown out of a Conservative party campaign launch event on Wednesday live on air. (See 8.08pm.)

McCaffrey was manhandled by the event’s security as he attempted to explain, walking backwards while broadcasting, why he was being forcibly removed.

McCaffrey said the party claimed the event was being covered by a pool camera which was supporting broadcasters with footage and therefore he wasn’t authorised to be there.

Reuters’ deputy editor-in-chief, Barry Malone, reacted to the fiasco on X, posting: “That’s some fine TV journalism-ing from @darrenmccaffrey.”

Here is the clip:

Updated

Conservative MPs are feeling baffled and furious about the election, and some are submitting letters of no confidence in Sunak, the New Statesman reports.

“To say Westminster did not see this coming was an understatement,” writes editor Rachel Cunliffe. “Up until this morning, No 10 had sent very strong signals that an election would not be called until the autumn.”

There is “widespread fury” in the party from MPs, candidates, grassroots activists, advisers and parliamentary aides, who will lose their jobs if the people they work for lose their seats.

One texted Cunliffe to tell her the decision was cruel. Another described it as heartbreaking.

There is still no understanding of why Sunak chose to make the announcement, she writes, but MPs have told her “it’s a terrible idea”, “I don’t get it”, “really odd”, “he’s given up” and “we deserve to lose”.

Another called the day’s proceedings “a shitshow”.

“It’s hard to imagine a less united party heading into a six-week election campaign,” she concludes.

Updated

The government is poised to scrap a milestone sale of shares in NatWest Group to the general public, due to the surprise election, Reuters reports.

The election now places the decision in the hands of the next government, sources told the news agency, declining to be named pending official confirmation.

Things can only get wetter. The humiliation. Even when Rishi Sunak is totally down on his luck, he can’t buy an even break. This was meant to be his last hurrah. The prime minister’s final act of pomp and circumstance. The lectern outside Downing Street to inform an ungrateful nation that he was calling a general election for 4 July.

Only it wasn’t just raining. It was chucking it down. Soak the Rich. Soak the Rish!. Sunak was determined to front it out. To not give in and miss out on his photo op. But he looked fed up even as he appeared from the front door. Five minutes later he looked thoroughly miserable. Borderline catatonic. His suit drenched, his speech in rags. And all the while Steve Bray played Labour’s 1997 election theme song, D:Ream’s Things Can Only Get Better, at full volume.

Read more

“Furious” Conservative MPs are plotting to call off the general election and replace Sunak as leader before parliament is dissolved next Thursday, according to Christopher Hope, a political editor on GB News.

He tweeted on X that a rebel Tory MP told him he believes “several” more letters of no confidence in Sunak have been submitted to the chairman of the 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady.

The senior Conservative MP reportedly told Hope:

Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted.

“In other words, if enough Tory MPs, who are clearly going to lose their seats in this already utterly shambolic campaign, write to Sir Graham Brady, tomorrow , the election could still be revoked.”

Updated

The Green party is aiming to get a “handful” of Green MPs elected, the party co-leader Carla Denyer has told Sky News.

“We had had phenomenal success in the last five elections and increased our councillors fivefold,” she said. “We’re aiming to make similar gains in parliament and we have reason to believe that might be possible.”

She pointed out that in Canada, which also has a first-past-the-post electoral system, the number of Green MPs in parliament “jumped up” in the most recent election – after being “stuck” on one Green MP for a while.

“We’re aiming to get a handful of Green MPs elected,” she said, adding that a team of Green MPs would “push” a Labour government to be a “little bit bolder” on the areas they have been “backsliding”.

Updated

The election expert John Curtice says Sunak has taken “an enormous gamble” in calling for an election in early July.

Writing in The Times (pay wall), Curtice said the Conservative part was – on average – 21 points behind Labour in the polls and that Labour’s average lead has never been fewer than 15 points ever since Sunak took over as prime minister.

Even if Starmer proves a “poor campaigner”, that should not “comfort” Sunak.

A 10-point fall in Labour’s lead – similar to the fall Theresa May suffered after an “inept” campaign in 2017 – would still leave it 11 points ahead.

“If the electoral system treats Labour as unkindly as it did in 2019 – and one of the messages of the local elections this month is that that looks unlikely – Starmer would still be better placed to form a minority government in a hung parliament,” Curtice writes.

Updated

Sunak told his party’s first campaign event of the general election that “uncertain times call for a bold plan” as he heavily emphasised the need for security in a world of multiple threats.

The Tory leader also sought to evoke an underdog status by suggesting that Labour already believed it had won but that “the British people are going to show that they don’t take too kindly to being taken for granted.”

Flanked by most of the cabinet, Sunak took a small stage in a backroom of the Excel Centre in east London in front of a crowd of about 100 Conservative party members who were swiftly ushered out afterwards.

Keir Starmer came under repeated attack in a brief warm-up speech delivered by the home secretary, James Cleverly, as the Conservatives sought to put security front and centre of their offering.

On the back of figures showing that inflation was back to 2.3%, Sunak said the government had delivered on his first priority of “driving inflation back to normal” and the economy had turned a corner.

The Tory leader name-checked the war in Ukraine, Putin, China and what he said was a moment when “migration is being weaponised by hostile states”.

“These uncertain times call for a bold plan. It is only we Conservatives, we are prepared to take that bold action,” said Sunak, who told the room that Labour wanted the public to think the election was a done deal.

Updated

Celebrities have been poking fun at Sunak’s decision to announce the general election outside No10 during torrential rain.

“Can’t he afford an umbrella?” Sue Perkins posted on X.

The author and journalist Caitlin Moran wrote: “Rishi now having to strip down to his pants and sit in front of the three-bar fire while his mum makes him a cup of Bovril.”

The satirical Larry the Cat account wrote: “I was inside, because it was raining. Only an idiot would have gone out in that...”

The presenter Loraine Kelly replied: “Larry – he knows.”

The protester who played Things Can Only Get Better during Sunak’s election speech did so to “troll” the Conservatives.

Anti-Brexit campaigner Steve Bray said he selected the D:Ream song for its association with the Tory landslide defeat in the 1997 general election rather than as a show of support for Labour in the upcoming campaign.

“I didn’t do it for Labour. I did it because it was the top trolling song for the Conservatives,” he told PA news.

He added that his protest outside Downing Street was paused when his two amplifiers became soaked and stopped working during heavy rain in Westminster.

Responding to complaints that people could not hear the speech in Downing Street because of his protest, Bray said: “Look at the damage Sunak’s done to the country.

“If they couldn’t hear the speech, it’s still reported. They’ll know what he said.”

Bray said he was banned from protesting outside parliament and Whitehall on Wednesday afternoon after the police received two complaints.

He added: “Of course, the police are trying to shut us down all the time. Both of the amps got soaked and they blew anyway.

“It was just so wet today. Water got into them and they were just gone.

“I’ll just buy some more.”

Wearing a hat in the blue and yellow colours of the EU, Bray said that he would be continuing his protests during the election campaign, adding: “Protest is all about sound and vision.”

Sunak claims Labour taking victory for granted

Rishi Sunak is going into the election as the underdog, and he embraced this stance in his speech to the Tory rally. He said that Labour wanted people to think “this election is over before it’s even begun”, but that “the British people are going to show Labour that they don’t take too kindly to being taken for granted”.

That it not a message that a party would use if it were in a strong position. But sometimes voters punish hubris, and there may be some who are susceptible to the message that Labour is taking them for granted.

Sunak did not resort to arguing that people should vote Tory to deny Labour a big majority (an argument that some Tory advisers have reportedly toyed with, and one that some Labour MPs deployed successfully the other way round early in the 2017 campaign).

But this campaign has only just started. If things get desperate, it might be a line some Tories use.

That is all from me for tonight. Donna Ferguson is taking over now.

Updated

Rishi Sunak pictured at the Tory rally at the ExCel in London

Updated

Sky’s Darren McCaffrey is back on air. He tells viewers that, not only was he excluded from the room at the ExCeL centre in London where Rishi Sunak was speaking, he was thrown out of the whole building. (See 8.08pm.)

Sunak claims Labour would raise taxes as he speaks at Tory election rally

Rishi Sunak is speaking now.

He says the figures out today show he has delivered on his first priority, to drive inflation back to normal.

His plan is working, he says.

But with this hard-one stability comes a choice: who do you trust?

He says the only certainty with Labour is that it will raise taxes. He cited the Tory analysis – that has been dismissed as untrue by Labour – purporting to show Labour would raise taxes by £2,000 for families.

James Cleverly claims Starmer is weak, indecisive and contradictory, as he opens Tory election rally

Rishi Sunak is about to address a Tory election rally. Most or all members of the cabinet are there.

James Cleverly, the home secretary, is introducing Sunak.

He says elections are about choices, and the Conservative party will present the voters with a choice.

He says he does not know which of the “various Keir Starmer entities” is running in the campaign.

He says Starmer has gone from backing Jeremy Corbyn as leader, running for leader himself on a Corbynite platform, to distancing himself from the left, to now trying to ingratiate himself with the left again.

He says the choice is between a leader with a plan, and a “weak, indecisive, completely contradictory Keir Starmer” who heads a Labour party “beholden to the left”

John Swinney, the SNP leader and Scottish first minister, has said that the decision to hold the general election on 4 July, after Scottish schools have started their summer holiday, is disrespectful to Scotland. The BBC has the story.

Updated

Rishi Sunak is about to speak at a rally in east London. Sky News has just broadcast a clip of their reporter, Darren McCaffrey being escorted out by security guards. He was told he was not allowed in because a pool camera is filming it for broadcasters.

Holly Lynch, the Labour MP for Halifax, has announced she is stepping down at the election. Lynch has been in parliament since 2015 and is currently deputy chief whip. Aged 37, she says she has a young son, is expecting another baby, and is finding it “increasingly difficult” to combine the work of an MP with family life.

And this is what Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, told LBC’s Tonight with Andrew Marr about why Rishi Sunak is holding an election now.

I was talking to a former cabinet minister this evening, we know why Rishi Sunak’s called the election now - it’s because he knows there’s a summer ahead of small boats arriving and proof his Rwanda scheme won’t work, he knows there’ll be an NHS winter crisis with more strikes ongoing that he’s still failed to resolve and he’s got no plan for the winter.

Despite the music backdrop in Downing Street today, things will only get worse - and Rishi Sunak is hoping that on the basis of one day’s inflation figures, the country will suddenly forget 14 years of calamity.

Mujtaba Rahman, a political analyst, has posted a succinct explanation for why Rishi Sunak may have decided to call the election now. He had been expected to leave it until the late autumn, in line with the usual pattern where prime ministers who are on course to lose tend to delay the election until the last possible minute.

Was in Westminster all day. Understand there’s 5 major reasons for @RishiSunak July 4 election gamble

1/ Key aides told PM inflation is now at its “election sweet spot” - 2.3% was today’s print - & warned it may rise again by autumn

2/ No fiscal space for NI cuts in Sept 1/

3/ Concern legal challenges will further delay/block flights to Rwanda taking off

4/ Mess in the English Channel with small boats during the summer months

5/ Nigel Farage hasn’t yet decided whether to front Reform UK, so snap poll may boost Tory prospects

If the Conservatives lose the election by a large margin, as polling suggests, Sunak’s decision may end up looking like a terrible mistake. But because we will never know for sure because it will be impossible to know what might have happened under the counterfactual scenario (an autumn election). For reasons Rahman explains, you can argue that Sunak’s prospects in November would be even worse.

Michelle O’Neill, the Sinn Féin leader in Northern Ireland and NI’s first minister, said her party’s candidates would be campaigning as part of an “island team”. In a statement she said:

The Tory government has been a disaster for the people in the north – bad for the economy, bad for public services and bad for workers and families as the cost of living soared putting them under pressure.

It is time for change.

The Westminster election on 4 July is an opportunity to send a clear message. That you want decisions about your life and your future to be made here in Ireland, and not in London …

Sinn Féin MPs as part of an an island team will stand up for your interests.

Let’s seize the opportunity to return the strongest Sinn Féin team in this Westminster election.

Updated

Plaid Cymru says it will fight for Wales in the election campaign. In a statement Rhun ap Iorwerth, its leader, said:

Only a vote for Plaid Cymru will put Wales’ best interests first in this election. We are ready to take this fight to the London parties to demand the fairness that Wales both needs and deserves.

The Tories have crashed the economy and hard-working people are still paying the price of high bills. Labour, on the other hand, just take Wales for granted. None of the London parties will put Wales first.

Plaid won four seats at the last election, and is on course to win four seats again, according to some projections.

The Green party’s co-leaders have welcomed Rishi Sunak’s decision to call the election.

Carla Denyer, the party’s candidate in Bristol Central, said:

At last. This is the moment the country has been waiting for, the chance to vote for a different vision of what our country can be. We are urging voters to elect at least four Green MPs to parliament.

And Adrian Ramsay, standing in Waveney Valley, said:

We are ready. Across the country, people will have the chance to vote for a Green candidate offering voters hope and practical solutions to the cost-of-living crisis, supporting people into warm, affordable homes, protecting our NHS and cleaning up our toxic rivers.

As well as Bristol Central and Waveney Valley, the other two Green party target seats are Brighton Pavilion, where Sîan Berry hopes to replace Caroline Lucas, the party’s only MP, and North Herefordshire.

Two cabinet ministers told Rishi Sunak at cabinet this afternoon that calling an election now was a mistake, Steven Swinford from the Times reports.

Exclusive:

Two ministers expressed reservations when Rishi Sunak announced his plans for a July 4 election

Esther McVey, a Cabinet Office minister, said he would be better off waiting until the improved economic outlook had filtered through to voters

Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland Secretary, said that he would not have called an election now but that he was fully behind it

Ed Davey meeting Lib Dem supporters at the London Recreation Ground in Camberley, Surrey. Camberley is in Michael Gove’s Surrey Heath constituency, where the YouGov MRP poll suggests the Tories are ahead of the Lib Dems by 33% to 32%.

Updated

The DUP is ready for a general election, its director of elections told PA Media.

Speaking to the PA in Belfast, Gordon Lyons said:

We are ready with a message to take to people right across Northern Ireland about who is best to represent their needs and make a difference for them at Westminster.

As far as unionism is concerned, we have a very clear message for unionists in Northern Ireland about why we are the right party to represent them.

We look forward to taking our message to people right across Northern Ireland.

Asked whether the DUP was concerned about the partnership between Reform UK and TUV (a small, hardline unionist party), who are planning to run a slate of agreed candidates, Lyons said:

We’re ready to take our message out. We have a very clear message about why we are the party that people should be voting for to represent their interests in parliament and we look forward to explaining that to the electorate.

Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, says he will “fight with every bone” in his body to get Rishi Sunak elected.

1/2 As today’s inflation news confirms, despite massive global shocks our country’s prospects have been transformed under Rishi’s leadership. It will be my honour to fight with every bone in my body to get him re-elected because we need a government that takes the difficult decisions necessary to unlock our nation’s extraordinary potential.

I will also stand for election in Godalming and Ash where I am proud of my local record and excited that the new boundaries include the town I went to school and the village I grew up in. It is a highly marginal seat so I will fight hard for every single vote!

If the YouGov MRP poll from April is correct, the Lib Dems are on course to beat Hunt in Godalming and Ash by 35% to 32%.

From my colleague Eleni Courea

Tory chairman Richard Holden and strategist Isaac Levido currently holding a call to brief Tory MPs about the election strategy

Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, says a vote for a Liberal Democrat at the election will be a vote for a local champion. At an event with supporters in Surrey, he said:

Across the country, people are crying out for change and this election is the chance to make that happen.

In so many parts of the country it’s the Liberal Democrats who can beat the Conservatives, who have taken people for granted for so long.

Every vote for the Liberal Democrats is a vote for a local champion — an MP who will fight for you, your family and your community to get the fair deal that you so deserve.

Updated

The media pack in Downing Street this afternoon

Updated

Justin Welby and Stephen Cottrell, the archbishops of Canterbury and York, saying they are praying for people to treat each other “with respect and kindness” during the election campaign. In a statement they say:

We would add a plea that no matter how big the issues as stake over the next few weeks, this will be a time marked by respect for one another, for good grace and a commitment to truth and integrity.

It is our prayer that, even in the heat of the debate, we will treat each other with respect and kindness.

John Swinney, the SNP leader and Scotland’s first minister, says he will be urging Scots to vote for his party to get the Tories out. In a statement he says:

I very much look forward to leading the SNP in this election campaign.

This is the moment to remove the Tory government and put Scotland first by voting SNP. We will work night and day to protect them from the damage done by Westminster.

The SNP offers a better future to the broken Westminster consensus.

In this election we’ll be making the case why decisions about Scotland should be made here – and I’ll take that message to every part of Scotland.

In government, we’ve grown Scotland’s economy, doubled frontline funding for the NHS and ensured Scotland has the highest number of GPs per head in the UK. We’re helping with the cost of living through measures such as free prescriptions, free bus travel for under-22s and off-peak rail fares all day.

A vote for the SNP is a vote to put Scotland first – and for Scotland to become an independent country.

Starmer says 'vote for Labour is vote for stability'

Keir Starmer has delivered his own video address. It contained two key messages.

  • Starmer stressed his commitment to public service, and insisted that this was a priority for his party too. Referring to his record as director of public prosecutions, he said:

Service of our country is the reason and the only reason why I am standing here now asking for your vote. I believe with patience, determination and that commitment to service, there is so much pride and potential we can unlock in our country. So here it is, the future of the country in your hands.

He also insisted that Labour would fight the election campaign in a new “spirit of service: country first, party second”.

  • He said a vote for Labour was a vote for stability. He said:

If [the Conservatives] get another five years they will feel entitled to carry on exactly as they are. Nothing will change,

A vote for Labour is a vote for stability, economic and political, a politics that treads more lightly on all our lives. A vote to stop the chaos.

Updated

The royal family is scaling back engagements while the election campaign is on. A Buckingham Palace spokesperson said:

Following the prime minister’s statement this afternoon calling a general election, the royal family will – in accordance with normal procedure – postpone engagements that may appear to divert attention or distract from the election campaign. Their Majesties send their sincere apologies to any of those who may be affected as a result.

But D-Day engagements are going ahead, the palace says.

Key election-related dates, up to state opening of new parliament on Wednesday 17 July

Here are the full election-related dates announced by No 10.

Friday 24 May – Parliament prorogued

Thursday 30 May – Parliament dissolved

Thursday 4 July – General election

Tuesday 9 July – New parliament meets for election of speaker and swearing-in of MPs

Wednesday 17 July – State opening of parliament, with king’s speech

Here are a selection of pictures from outside Downing Street as Rishi Sunak called a general election for 4 July.

Updated

Sunak's speech - snap verdict

“Things can only get wetter.” If Rishi Sunak was setting out to make people feel sorry for him, he succeeded brilliantly. Otherwise, it was hard to find any redeeming features in that speech.

First of all, the optics. Sunak got drenched, and he looked miserable. If you believe in the weather gods, they clearly vote Labour. And whoever was playing ‘Things can only get better’ on a loudspeaker in Whitehall almost drowned him out completely (drowned being the operative word today). The Tory legislation that was supposed to ban noisy protests clearly did not work as well as Priti Patel intended.

On the announcement, we got the election date, but Sunak made no attempt to explain why he is calling it for 4 July, when until very recently he had been planning for an autumn election. There was no real need for an explanation, but it would have been nice to have one. Some commentators are describing this a “gamble”. But that implies he is expecting a positive outcome. This feels more like a capitulation, a recognition that all of his other options are worse.

Sunak was at his most popular when he was announcing the furlough scheme as chancellor, and he made this the centre of his pitch to the electorate. But he was on much weaker ground when talking about more recent policies. “We are stopping the boats with our Rwanda partnership, and we will ensure the next generation grows up smoke free,” he said. But the boats aren’t stopping, and the legislation to create a smoke-free generation almost certainly won’t become law, because the election is happening now.

On Labour, he said Keir Starmer could not be trusted, and that Labour does not have a plan. But Labour does have a plan, as the Tories admitted last week when they published a 20-page document costing it. And all the polling evidence suggests that people aren’t scared of Starmer, and that they trust him more than Sunak.

“I have never and will never leave the people of this country to face the darkest of days alone,” Sunak said at one point. The problem is – voters want Sunak to leave them alone (if the polling is right) and to take his party off into opposition. He has just six weeks to turn that around.

Updated

Keir Starmer has released a video with his own message. He sums up what he is offering with one word: “Change.”

Sunak says voters don't know what they're getting with Starmer because he doesn't keep promises

Sunak says he is guided by what is right, not by what is easy.

He goes on:

I can’t say the same thing for the Labour party because I don’t know what they offer.

And in truth I don’t think you know either.

And that’s because they have no plan. There is no bold action. And as a result the future can only be uncertain with them.

On the 5th of July, either Keir Starmer or I will be prime minister. He has shown time and time again that he will take the easy way out and do anything to get power.

If he was happy to abandon all the promises he made to become leader leader once he got the job, how can you know that he won’t do exactly the same thing if he were to become prime minister?

If you don’t have the conviction to stick to anything you say, if you don’t have the courage to tell people what you want to do, and if you don’t have a plan, how can you possibly be trusted to lead our country, especially at this most uncertain of times?

Updated

Sunak is now talking about government achievements.

We’ve tackled inflation, controlled debt, cut workers’ taxes, and increased the state pension by £900.

We’ve reduced taxes on investment and seized the opportunities of Brexit to make this the best country in the world to grow a business, put record amounts of funding into our NHS and ensured it is now training the doctors and nurses it needs in the decades to come.

Sunak says the election will be a choose – who will take the right decisions to give people a better future.

(Sunak is getting drenched in the rain.)

Sunak is almost being drowned out by someone playing ‘Things can only get better” very, very loudly in Whitehall.

Sunak confirms election to take place on 4 July

Sunak says the king has granted the dissolution of parliament, and the election will be on 4 July.

Sunak says his premiership has been focused on restoring economic stability

Rishi Sunak starts by saying the country has fought through the most challenging times since the second world war since the last election.

During Covid, he said the country faced a defining moment. He said we would be defined by the small acts of kindness.

He reminds people he set up the furlough scheme.

He says he has never and will never leave people to face the darkest of days alone.

He will do all he can to provide people with the strongest possible protection.

The pandemic upended many aspects of life.

And just as the country was recovering, the war in Ukraine sent energy bills spiralling.

He says he is someone who puts economic stability first.

I came to office above all, to restore economic stability.

Economic stability is the bedrock of any future success. Whether that is rising wages and good jobs, investment in our public services, or the defence of the country.

And because of our collective sacrifice and your hard work, we have reached two major milestones in delivering that stability, showing that when we work together anything is possible.

From the Sun’s Harry Cole

The lectern has arrived. And it does not have a prime ministerial crest, which means he is announcing party business, not government business. Confirmation that he is calling an election (if you don’t trust all the media organisations already telling you, as fact, he will be announcing he’s going to the polls).

The rain is getting worse in Downing Street. This is from the FT’s Lucy Fisher.

The rain is getting heavier in Downing St as we wait for Rishi Sunak to come outside at 5pm and call a snap July election

Speakers are out but no podium yet…

When Liz Truss delivered her first speech in Downing Street at PM, the weather was also terrible. She kept driving around Wesminster in her car for several minutes until the rain eased off for a bit.

This is from Philip Collins, the journalist and former Labour adviser.

Tim Shipman, the Sunday Times’ political editor, agrees.

Nicholas Watt from Newsnight has more on Tory reaction to the election news.

Am rather losing count of the number of ministers asking me what is happening with their government. One described an imminent general election as “weird”. They asked: why do it before the flights have taken off for Rwanda?

From Sky’s Darren McCaffrey

The last time there was a July election in the UK was in 1945 (July 5th)

Labour won by a landslide

From the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg

Gift for the sketch writers - it is absolutely CHUCKING IT DOWN in Downing Street while they’re getting ready for the announcement

According to Beth Rigby from Sky News, Rishi Sunak will be making his statement from inside No 10 because it is raining.

From David Williamson from the Sunday Express

I just rang up a backbencher to see what they thought of an early election and they told me they were in the process of writing a no confidence letter.

From the writer and broadcaster Steve Richards

No previous PM has called an election so far behind in the polls..and earlier than necessary. J Major was way behind but went on as long as he could until 97. J Callaghan lost a vote of confidence when behind in polls..but he wasn’t far behind in polls in 79. I can see why Sunak’s done it..but it’s quite something to call an election in such a bleak context.

The Spectator is required reading for Conservative MPs. In this week’s edition, it has a leader saying a summer election would be madness for the Tories, Fraser Nelson, the editor, says.

Calling a summer election would be madness for the Tories.

Leading article in the new Spectator, out tomorrow

Rishi Sunak is going to make the election announcement outside No 10 at 5pm.

Judging by the look of ministers arriving for cabinet, enthusiasm for a summer election may be strongly linked to their chances of holding their seat.

David TC Davies, the Welsh secretary, had a majority of almost 10,000 in Monmouth at the last election. But the seat is being abolished, and he is standing for Monmouthshire, where a YouGov MRP poll in April said he was neck and neck with Labour. He did not seem to be exuding joy as he arrived.

But Victoria Atkins, the health secretary, seemed in better spirits. She represents Louth and Horncastle in Lincolnshire. She had a majority of 28,868 at the last election, and the YouGov MRP has her winning comfortably, on 38% ahead of Labour’s 28%.

Rishi Sunak will call general election for July in surprise move – sources

Rishi Sunak will this afternoon call a surprise early election for July, senior sources have told the Guardian, a contest that will see Keir Starmer try to take power for Labour after 14 years of Conservative-led government. Pippa Crerar and Rowena Mason have the story.

Updated

From the Express’s Steph Spyro

Emily Maitlis from the News Agents’ podcast says she’s been told the election is happening on Thursday 4 July.

If Rishi Sunak does not call an election this afternoon, he is going to leave the entire Westminster polico-media class thoroughly confused. Chris Mason, the BBC’s political editor, has posted this on the BBC’s blog about the village is already morphing into election mode.

I am told senior civil servants who spend their days in regular conversation with Downing Street and the heart of government are encountering a wall of silence from those they normally deal with.

A senior Conservative figure who is standing down at the election just hugged one of my colleagues goodbye.

In other words, all of the building blocks of choreography and behaviour you would expect on the day a general election is called are taking shape.

The Labour adviser Damian McBride says it was wrong for David Cameron to cut short his trip to Albania given all the effort they had put in to make him feel welcome.

Updated

Home Office ministers have cleared their diaries, the BBC is reporting.

Alex Wickham from Bloomberg has a good summary of the state of play at the moment.

State of play

— most in govt think it’s an election
— some are claiming some knowledge
— most are basing it on the fact No10 will look ridiculous if it’s anything else at this point
— could be snap or date named for autumn
— minority still think chance it’s just a big reshuffle

ITV’s Robert Peston says the finance bill is going to be rushed through the Commons tomorrow.

I am told all the final stages of the finance bill are being rushed through tomorrow. That would be consistent with a 4 July general election

James Ball from the New European says the Tories may be planning an election event at the ExCeL centre in London tonight.

I am hearing that there is currently a stage being built at the ExCeL for a Conservative Party event this evening – around 8pm.

Given reports of an announcement outside Number 10 around 5pm, could this be some kind of follow up launch?

In news that will confirm suspicions that some in the Conservative party prioritise infighting and fratricide above all else, Nicholas Watt from Newsnight says some Tories, alarmed by the prospect of an election now, are submitting letters to the chair of the 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady, calling for a vote of no confidence in Rishi Sunak.

A Tory rebel source tells me: Letters are going in calling for a no confidence vote in Rishi Sunak after reports of an imminent general election announcement

Another Tory source: panic in the tea room. Nobody was expecting this. “Everyone mortified,” the source told me

This echoes what a leading Tory Brexiteer told me - as I posted earlier - that an election now would be “madness”. Why go when @Conservatives are 20 points behind in the polls goes the thinking

Under Conservative party rules, 15% of MPs (52, on current numbers) would have to submit a letter for a no confidence vote to be held. It is assumed that anti-Sunak rebels don’t have that level of support, but no one knows for sure.

Even if they did, there is no certainty a no confidence ballot would be held anyway. The 1922 Committee rules don’t cover all eventualities, and its chair and executive committee have quite a lot of discretion to improvise, according to circumstances. It is hard to imagine Brady allowing a ballot to go ahead after an election had been called.

ITV’s Anushka Asthana says some people in government have been told an election is being announced – but not when it will be.

Committee on Standards in Public Life urges party leaders to ensure candidates fight clean election campaign

That was good timing. This morning Doug Chalmers, chair of the Committee on Standards in Public Life, released letters to all the main political party leaders urging them to ensure that candidates fight a clean election campaign. Chalmers said it was particularly important “that disagreement should be expressed in a civil manner and that inflammatory language and actions should not be tolerated”.

He also urged leaders to get their candidates to abide by a code of conduct agreed with the Jo Cox Foundation. Among other things, it says campaigners should “promote and defend the dignity of others, including political opponents, treating all people with courtesy and respect”.

The Home Office has conceded it must make significant changes to the way it treats EU citizens in the country for less than five years before Brexit after it was accused of not taking sufficient action to address a high court ruling against it more than a year ago.

The court ruled that its demand that EU citizens with pre-settled status in the UK re-apply to stay in the country once they reached the five year threshold for full settled status was “unlawful”. This came after the statutory body, the Independent Monitoring Authority, backed by campaign group the3Million, won its case in December 2022.

The IMA had argued that millions of citizens could have inadvertently lost their homes, jobs or other rights if they, for some reason, forgot to reapply on time.

Instead of removing the barrier, the Home Office automatically extended the period for reapplication by two years, something the IMA said was a clear breach of the court ruling.

After coming under mounting pressure, the Home Office has now agreed a series of mitigating measures including the removal of pre-settled expiry dates from the database landlords and employers used to “view and prove” a persons’ rights.

It has also removed the requirement for a repeat check by employers when the pre-settled status runs out and agreed a five year extension for application of the full settled status.

Earlier this year the Lords European affairs committee said it was concerned the Home Office was not complying with the high court ruling.

Updated

Grant Shapps delays trip to Lithuania so he can attend afternoon cabinet

Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, has had to delay a trip to Lithuania so he can attend cabinet this afternoon. Larisa Brown from the Times says that is unusual, because normally No 10 would have been happy for him to miss cabinet.

According to Wikipedia, Rishi Sunak is 44th out of 57 in the list of longest-serving prime ministers. If Sunak were to delay the election until November, he would be able to say he was in office for a full two years (assuming he does not win and get another term). If he goes for an election now, he won’t lift his ranking above 44th.

Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, was due to appear on ITV’s Peston tonight. But he has pulled out, the programme says.

Robert Peston, the programme’s presenter, said earlier that he thinks an election is about to be called. (See 1.23pm.)

David Cameron cuts short trip to Albania to return to London

David Cameron, the foreign secretary, has cut short a meeting in Albania to return to London, the BBC is reporting.

This is from ITV’s Julie Etchingham.

Not your everyday source of election rumour : an RC Sister the brilliant @ImeldaPoole8 messaged me from Albania to flag Lord Cameron had pulled out of meeting with NGOs to hurry back….

ITV’s Anushka Asthana says that, if Rishi Sunak wants to hold an election on Thursday 4 July, he would have to cancel next week’s recess. That is because parliament would have to dissolve a week tomorrow.

One point being made by the whips is that for a July 4 election- the Govt would have to cancel recess next week- and that means announcing parliamentary business

With Westminster on standby for an election (rightly or wrongly – we still don’t know), here are the latest polling numbers from the Guardian’s poll tracker.

Updated

Graeme Cowie, a procedure specialist at the House of Commons, has posted a message on X with a list of government bills that might be lost if there is an early election.

Government legislation that hasn’t yet reached the @UKHouseofLords in this session includes:
🚭Tobacco and Vapes Bill
⚖️Crime and Justice Bill
🔨Sentencing Bill
⚽️ Football Governance Bill

Either these Bills are lost, or scrutiny is heavily scaled back, if election is imminent.

Andrew Marr, the former BBC political editor who is now an LBC presenter and political editor at the New Statesman, also thinks it’s happening.

Chris Philp tells MPs better-than-expected prison space situation means police have not had to pause arrests

Chris Philp, the policing minister, has told MPs that police are not pausing “non-priority” arrests in response to prison overcrowding because the situation is better than anticipated when that advice was sent out

In response to a Commons urgent question tabled by Labour about the memo sent to chief constables by the National Police Chiefs’ Council (see 9.33am) saying fewer people should be arrested, Philp said this was just a contingency option and that police forces were not having to follow it.

Philp told MPs that within the last half an hour eicestershire he had spoken to Chief Constable Rob Nixon, the NPCC criminal justice lead. Philp went on:

He has confirmed to me that the contingencies referred to in the letter were not required. He said the contingencies were not required because the prison place situation in practice did not merit it.

He said [there are] no delays to arrests that he is aware of, and he has said that while a small number of people were conveyed to court in police cars and there were a small number of delays to arrival at court, no one who should have got to court in fact did not do so.

So, I am delighted to confirm to the House, the contingencies referenced in the letter in fact did not materialise and the short-term fluctuation referenced in the letter will be over tomorrow.

Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, suggested Philp was being complacent. She said the government had “catastrophically failed to manage the criminal justice system or build the basic prison places promise”.

Referring to a scheme coming into effect tomorrow, allowing prisoners to be released up to 70 days early, she said:

You’ve got early release massively expanded starting tomorrow, including domestic abusers, and now this serious impact on public safety with Operation Early Dawn, telling [the] prisoner escort service just not to collect prisoners from police stations to take them to court because there aren’t enough places, and police forces having to pick up the pieces instead, the NPCC saying in its letter in the strongest terms – this is unsustainable and risks public safety.

This morning Harry Cole, political editor of the Sun, did not seem too bothered that No 10 was not returning his calls.

Silence from No10 and PMQs prep Wednesdays often go hand in hand….

Now, though, he has changed his assessment.

We’ve escalated from top contact calls ringing out to calls being knifed...

Last time that happened the Queen was dead.

At the post-PMQs huddle the PM’s press secretary also refused to say that Jeremy Hunt will be chancellor at the time of the next election. In the past Rishi Sunak has said that, and the press secretary’s answer may fuel speculation that we’re getting a reshuffle announcement later, not an election – (although that still seems unlikely).

Asked to confirm that that Sunak was still committed to keeping Hunt in post until the election, the press secretary replied:

We don’t comment on reshuffle speculation.

We think the chancellor’s doing a very good job and it’s very clear that the economy is on the up …

It’s the PM’s decision in terms of the cabinet positions.

Updated

Robert Peston, ITV’s political editor, who is one of the best-informed journalists at Wesminster (but, like all of us, not 100% infallible), thinks there will be an early election.

For what it is worth, I think an earlier election is on. I can’t tell you why I now think that. This is not 100% certain but close enough for me to mention to you

At the post-PMQs lobby briefing the PM’s press secretary refused to rule out a summer general election amid speculation Rishi Sunak could call one imminently, while highlighting “good inflation news”.

As PA Media reports, she said:

I know there’s a lot of interest in this, as there has been pretty much every week over the last five months.

I’ll just say the same thing I’ve always said, which is I’m not going to rule anything in or out. The PM said election – second half of the year.

PMQs - snap verdict

That was an odd PMQs, and it did not offer much in the way of new information on the issue obsessing Westminister – whether or not Rishi Sunak is going to call an election. The SNP leader at Westminister, Stephen Flynn, gave Sunak a chance to quash the rumours, but Sunak just said there will be an election in the second half of the year. He could have said he did not expect an election this summer, but he didn’t.

The Commons is due to rise for the Whitsun recess tomorrow. It is due to return on Monday 3 June. A dissolution on Thursday 6 June (which would allow time for non-controversial legislation to be passed in the wash-up) would allow an election to take place on Thursday 11 July.

Tory MPs were primed to celebrate the inflation figures, and Rishi Sunak used those questions to repeat the “plan is working” line he delivered this morning. Keir Starmer could have asked about arrests, and prison capacity (which is the subject of an urgent question taking place now). But instead he asked about the infected blood inquiry, which led to largely consensual exchanges (which turned surreal when Starmer asked if Sunak would implement the blood inquiry report recommendations by the end of the year, when almost certainly it will no longer be Sunak’s problem). One advantage of this was that it meant Sunak could not bring up inflation during the exchanges with Starmer, but in political terms it led to a draw.

This PMQs will mainly be remembered for Craig Mackinlay, who struck a lovely tone in his final question. He was told by doctors last year, after he got sepsis, that his chances of surviving were 5% at most. The Conservative party’s chances of winning the election are even lower, but Tory MPs were delighted to see him back in the Commons, having beaten the odds – as was everyone.

Craig Mackinlay (Con) says he has broken various rules today – encouraged clapping, wearing trainers because of his feet, not wearing a jacket.

He says he wants to thank people, including the speaker, Sir Lindsay Hoyle. When Hoyle visited him, he says other patients joked he had got the funeral director in already.

And he thanks Sunak. He says Sunak visited him in hospital many times, but did not advertise it.

And he thanks some of the NHS staff, some of whom he says are in the gallery. They saved him when he was close to death.

He urges Sunak to do all his can to ensure there is better recognition of the early signs of sepsis.

And he urges Sunak to ensure that the NHS can provide people with appropriate prosthetics.

Sunak accepts that more needs to be done. He says he will discuss these points. But he ends saying Mackinlay “has inspired each and every one of us”.

And that’s the end of PMQs.

Zarah Sultana (Lab) asks if the PM will uphold international law and end arms sales to Israel. And, if the ICC does issue an arrest warrant for the Israeli PM, will the UK enforce it if he comes to the UK.

Sunak jokes it is “always nice to see the changed Labour party”. He says the actions of the ICC will do nothing to get hostages out, or the aid in.

Jason McCartney (Con) asks about a new A&E unit at Huddersfield infirmary. Does the PM agree that this is evidence of the Tory government delivering his his Colne Valley constituents?

Sunak says this A&E unit will be a game changing. He says other levelling up projects are delivering for the area.

John Baron (Con) asks how the cut in inflation will help families.

Sunak says it is clear the plan is working. This is progress that would be put at risk by Labour, he claims.

Bell Ribeiro-Addy (Lab) says absolute poverty amongst children is at a record level. Streatham, her constituency, is one of the worst affected. Does the PM have plans to tackle child poverty?

Sunak says no one wants to see child poverty. He claims the government’s policies have reduced it. He says policies like the national school breakfast programme will help.

Tom Randall (Con) asks about inflation.

Sunak says the inflation level has returned to normal. That is further proof his plan is working, he says. Labour would impose tax rises of £2,000, he claims.

(Labour says that’s not true.)

Janet Daby (Lab) asks about a constituent who wants to move into a home better suited to her because of her health problems. Does the PM agree the country needs a Labour party that will bring down waiting lists?

Sunak says Daby’s constituents should look to Wales to see what happens when Labour runs the NHS. It is failing there, he claims.

John Whittingdale (Con) says his constituents have been promised a new hospital for years. He asks Sunak to get the NHS to look at this.

Sunak says a consultation on this is being extended.

Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, welcomes Craig Mackinlay back to the Commons.

He asks about someone who claimed carer’s allowance who is now being “hounded” to repay £1,200. And he asks about others punished harshly for going just a few pounds over the limit. Does the PM agree the government should be supporting carers, not persecuting them.

Sunak says the government supporters carers, and the value of the carer’s allowance has increased. In the rare number of cases where there have been overpayments, the DWP will recover the money. But it is willing to discuss replayment plans.

(These cases are not that rare. As the Guardian has reported, more than 130,000 carers are being asked to repay money.)

Sunak declines to rule out calling summer election, after SNP's Stephen Flynn asks about Westminster 'speculation'

Stephen Flynn, the SNP leader at Westminister, says speculation is rife. Will the PM call a summer election?

Sunak says there will be a general election in the second half of the year. People will see at that point what Labour might do.

Flynn says Sunak is playing games with the public. A former PM spoke some sense, this week, he says. It was David Cameron; he warned against clamping down on graduate visas. Does Sunak agree with him?

Sunak say Cameron also said immigration levels are too high. Visas are down, he says. Immigration is falling. That will ease the pressure on public services.

Danny Kruger (Con) says the economy is roaring back to life under the Tories. The last thing it needs is a Labour government, he says.

Sunak says Kruger has given a “superb” diagnosis. Inflation is back to normal, he says. He says Labour is proposing 70 new employment right laws.

Starmer says the Langstaff report is a victory for campaigners. Will Sunak promised to deliver on all its recommendations by the end of the year.

Sunak says that is his “expectation”. He says Sir Robert Francis, the interim chair of the compensation body, will be consulting victims on how to run that scheme.

Starmer says he knows the importance of reform from his time as DPP. But changing culture can require difficult decisions, he says. He says NHS staff are still being gagged from raising concerns, and of problematic people being moved on, not moved out. Will the PM ensure that managers who gag staff are not tolerated?

Sunak says that should not be happening.

Starmer says the Langstaff report also identifed problems in the culture within the NHS. Does the PM agree it needs to change?

Yes, says Sunak. He says it is clear from the report that there were “significant failings” in the NHS. He repeatst the point about studying the recommendations in full.

Starmer asks if Sunak will act on this as quickly as possible.

Sunak says there is “an enormous amount of support” for the principle of a duty of candour.

Sunak says he is 'sympathetic' to call to impose duty of candour on officials, as infected blood inquiry recommends

Starmer says the infected blood scandal is shocking, but not unique.

He focuses on the duty of candour. It has been a feature on scandal after scandal. The government has called for evidence on imposing a duty of candour in health. But it should apply across the board, he says.

Sunak says he is aware of the recommendation from Sir Brian Langstaff. The government introduced a duty of candour for the NHS, he says. He says he is “sympathetic” to this, but is considering the recommendations in full.

Keir Starmer starts by welcoming Craig Mackinlay back, and thanks him for meeting Starmer earlier. He praises Mackinlay for his “deep sense of service”.

And he pays tribute to the victims of the Manchester Arena attack.

Turning to the infected blood scandal, he says it reflects a failure of the state. On Monday the Commons was united on this. But does the PM agree that we will only make real progress if we tackle the lack of openness and candour?

Sunak says he does agree. It was an appalling scandal, he says. He pays tribute to Sir Brian Langstaff, and to the bravery of people who gave evidence.

Elliot Colburn (Con) asks about the inflation figures. Will the PM recommit to working to build a new hospital in his constituency.

Sunak says the government is investing in better healthcare across the country. There is investment in Carshalton and Wallington, he says.

Gen Kitchen (Lab) asks Sunak about dental deserts. She says the government plan to send dental vans to constituenies is a good one, but the government has had to U-turn because there are not enough vans.

Sunak says that is not right. The plan is delivering, he says. Over 500 more dental practices are accepting new patients.

Rishi Sunak says it is seven years since the Manchester Arena bombing. He pays tribute to the victim. And he welcomes Craig Mackinlay back to the Commons.

At the start of PMQs Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the speaker, welcomes Craig Mackinlay back. He says Mackinlay is an inspiration to people who have suffered from sepsis. There is another round of applause.

Tory MP Craig Mackinlay receives standing ovation after he returns to Commons following amputation of hands and feet

In the Commons the Tory MP Craig Mackinlay has just arrived.

He is getting a standing ovation from MPs from all sides, with applause. I can’t think of any precedent of an MP getting a reception like that on their arrival in the chamber.

Yesterday Mackinlay revealed that has revealed that he has both his hands and feet amputated last year due to sepsis. Today is his first time back in the chamber since falling ill last year.

Updated

This is from the Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael on the election rumours.

As all the rumours swirl, it has to be said:

It would be absolutely “peak Sunak” to call an election not because the polls have improved for the Tories, but because economic figures have shifted just enough so the public “ought” to be happy with him.

One option for Rishi Sunak would be to announce the date of the general election now – but not call it immediately. There is an argument that that might help him, because it would quash speculation about the timing.

George Osborne recommended this approach earlier this year.

But the speculation at Westminster is about Sunak calling an election now – for Thursday 4 July.

Sunak faces Starmer at PMQs as Westminster gripped by rumours PM might call election

Rishi Sunak will be taking PMQs soon. And he will address a chamber even more feverish than usual, because of the election speculation.

Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question.

Updated

Here is more chatter from journalists about the possibility of an election being called today.

This is from Jason Groves, the Daily Mail’s political editor.

Westminster rumour mill in overdrive that Sunak is about to call election for July 4. May yet prove to be unfounded but No 10 currently silent on the question

And this is from Chris Smyth, Whitehall editor at the Times.

There is Cabinet meeting this afternoon and lots of talk in Whitehall that announcement will come after

Silence from the centre

Some say July 4. But intriguing suggestion from some that the date set may be after the summer. Or even reshuffle

But something is definitely up

There have been several moments at Wesminster in recent months when rumours about a surprise election being called have spiked. It is happening again this morning, but this time speculation is edging towards the top of the Richter scale.

As Pippa Crerar pointed out early, Jeremy Hunt’s response to a question on this this morning did nothing to quell election fever. (See 10.21am.) Perhaps a more significant piece of evidence came in the final minute of the Today programme this morning, when Chris Mason, the BBC’s political editor, revealed that for the past 12 hours or so he has not been able to get anyone in Downing Street to say Rishi Sunak won’t be calling an election.

Another theory is that Sunak might announce a reshuffle this afternoon. With Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, announcing at the weekend that he is standing down at the election, there might be a case for one. But it would be pointless having a wide-ranging reshuffle at this point, with an election due within months anyway, and a minor reshuffle would not be enough to put the Westminster ecosystem on high alert, which is where it is heading now.

Hunt says it's 'not right time' for UK to recognise Palestinian state, as Ireland, Spain and Norway are doing

In an interview with Sky News this morning, Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, was asked if the UK would follow Ireland, Spain and Norway in formally recognising a Palestinian state. No, he replied. He told Sky:

We have a long-standing position on this that we will be prepared to recognise the state of Palestine at the time that it most helps the peace process, and we will continue to keep that under review.

Asked when the right time might be, Hunt said:

We will continue to keep that under review. But our position is that this is not the right time to do it at the moment.

According to a story by Jim Pickard, Lucy Fisher and Anna Gross in the Financial Times, Sue Gray, Keir Starmer’s chief of staff, has drawn up a list of all the “many very difficult problems” facing an incoming Labour government that Darren Jones referred to this morning. (See 10.37am.) The FT says:

Dubbed “Sue’s shit list” by one senior Labour official, it has been drawn up by the former civil servant to identify the most immediate problems Labour would face in office if it wins the election expected this year.

Senior Labour officials said that any one of the areas on Gray’s “government risk register” could puncture a honeymoon period for a new administration led by Sir Keir Starmer.

Here is the list.

Inquiry to begin into DWP’s treatment of ill and disabled people on benefits

The treatment of chronically ill and disabled people by welfare officials, including benefits decisions subsequently linked to the deaths of vulnerable claimants, is to be formally investigated by the Equality and Human Rights Commission, Britain’s human rights watchdog, Patrick Butler reports.

The EHRC has published more details about the inquiry here, including information on how experts and professionals can submit evidence. And here are the terms of reference.

Darren Jones, shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, was doing interviews for Labour this morning about the inflation figures. Speaking to Times Radio, he described the drop in inflation as evidence that the government had gone “from being grossly incompetent to being mildly incompetent”.

On the prison ovecrowding story (see 9.33am), Jones was asked if Labour would go into the election proposing to send fewer people to jail. He replied.

No, I don’t think so. I don’t think this is a space for ideology. I think it’s a space for pragmatism.

But Jones also accepted that this would be a very difficult problem for an incoming Labour government. He said:

The prison conditions are awful ... And now we’ve ended up in this absurd position where you can’t even get through the court system because the backlog is so long and the police are now saying, don’t arrest criminals. It’s ridiculous. And the public expect better and they need better.

But look, I’ll be frank with you. This is going to be one of the many very knotty, difficult problems that we will inherit if we win the election. And it will take time to turn it around.

Large-scale nuclear power station planned for Anglesey in Wales

Ministers have earmarked north Wales as the site of a large-scale nuclear power plant, which is part of plans to resuscitate Britain’s nuclear power ambitions, Jillian Ambrose reports.

Here is the government press release with details of the announcement.

Hunt sidesteps question about possible surprise election, saying it's matter for PM

At the end of last week, in a long read on the state of play in the Conservative party, the Financial Times mentioned a rumour that Rishi Sunak might announce an election today.

In this surreal pre-election period rumours swirl, the latest unlikely one being that Sunak could bring the uncertainty to an end and call a snap election next Wednesday, when new data is expected by some economists to show inflation falling below the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target.

If the FT thought there was a serious risk of Sunak calling an election today, it would not have buried the news in the middle of a feature. No one else has taken the prospect very seriously either, but, as Pippa Crerar reports, in an interview this morning Jeremy Hunt gave an answer that won’t 100% reassure people hoping for an election-free summer.

Jeremy Hunt not doing much to dispel Westminster rumours that Sunak could call election off back of inflation figures.

“Well that’s a matter for the prime minister, it’s not a matter for me,” he tells #Today.

Some getting spooked by Tories doubling down on dividing lines this week - and Sunak being front & centre on economic response.

For an election on Thursday 27 June, parliament would have to disssolve today (which won’t happen). If parliament were to dissolve on Thursday next week, the election could be held on Thursday 4 July.

Most people at Westminster still expect an election in October or November.

Updated

Jeremy Hunt admits people still feel worse off than before Covid pandemic

Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, found some common ground with Rachel Reeves (see 9.52am) this morning when he admitted people do not feel better off.

Speaking on ITV’s Good Morning Britain, he said:

Do people feel better off now than a few years ago? No, because we have had something that you and I have never had in our lifetimes.

We have had two massive economic shocks in quick succession so no, they don’t feel better than they felt a few years ago.

Hunt was referring to Covid and to the invasion of Ukraine, which triggered a huge rise in energy prices. He went on:

The numbers show very clearly that since 2010 over a longer period of time living standards have improved, we have got four million more jobs, we have attracted more investment than anywhere in the world apart from China and the United States.

The reason I am saying that is because this is an election year, people are going to make a choice about the future.

When it comes to the important things that make a difference, the difficult decisions on having a flexible labour market, on getting taxes down so that we attract investment from overseas, a Conservative government will continue to take those difficult decisions.

Paula Vennells, the former Post Office chief executive, has just started giving evidence to the Post Office Horizon inquiry. She is the most important witness to appear so far and she is scheduled to give evidence for three days. Martin Belam is covering the hearing on a separate live blog.

UK inflation falls by less than expected to 2.3%, reducing chance of June rate cut

UK inflation fell to 2.3% in April – its lowest level for almost three years – but the decline was smaller than expected, denting hopes of a return to the Bank of England’s 2% target, Phillip Inman reports.

And Julia Kollewe has full reaction on the business live blog.

But one of the most interesting response (politically, not economomically) came out last night. In an article for the Sun written ahead of the figures being published this morning, Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, said Rishi Sunak, who is “richer than the king”, would not appreciate the extent to which people are still suffering from the cost of living crisis.

I can understand why a Conservative prime minister who is richer than the king might want to run to the television studios to tell Brits that they’ve never had it so good.

But, Sun readers just need to look at their bank balances and the price of the weekly shop to know they are worse off.

On the Conservatives’ watch the price of a typical supermarket shop has gone up by nearly £1,000 a year.

Wages growth has been sluggish, taxes are at a seventy year high and mortgage bills rocketed after the disastrous mini-budget.

That’s not a record to celebrate – it’s a record you can’t defend.

More interesting than the message is the fact that the Sun chose to publish it. For years the Sun has been rabidly anti-Labour, but it is opportunistically Tory rather than ideologically Tory, it does not like being on the losing side at an election and for months now there have been signs that it is gearing up to back Labour at the election, or at least offer some kind of semi-endorsement. The Reeves article is another clue. Having the Sun change allegiance would have no real impact on the election result, but it would be bad for Tory morale.

Chief constables told to consider pausing 'non-priority arrests' as English and Welsh prisons too full

Good morning. The police have been told to arrest fewer people because jails in England and Wales are too full. The Times got the story last night, and if the inflation figures weren’t out this morning, it would be the lead item on the TV news.

In their story, Matt Dathan and Ben Ellery quote from a memo sent to chief constables by the National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC). It says:

Consideration is to be given to pausing non-priority arrests and any planned operations where large numbers of arrests may take place to ease the pressure within the criminal justice system.

Notwithstanding public protection remains a priority and a considered threat, harm and risk assessment is to be completed when considering any pause in police operations.

The Times says police chiefs have not been told exactly what arrests to pause, but “sources clarified that a more accurate term would be ‘non-urgent’ arrests”, the paper reports. “They gave the example of a person named as a suspect in a crime where officers were yet to carry out investigative actions, such as reviewing CCTV or carrying out house-to-house forensics for a burglary.”

The report also quotes from a second NPCC letter sent to chief constables saying the prison overcrowding crisis is having an “unsustainable” impact on policing. It is from Rob Nixon, chief constable of Leicestershire police and the NPCC head of criminal justice, and Nev Kemp, deputy chief constable of Surrey police and the NPCC custody lead, and they say:

We continue along with NPCC chair Gavin Stephens to make it clear in the strongest terms that the current situation is having an unsustainable operational impact on policing and the further deterioration in the situation, which HMPPS expect early next week, will further impact on operational policing and risks public safety. It is important for us to be able to show what those risks to public safety are.

It is PMQs today and Rishi Sunak will want to talk about today’s fall in inflation. But it would be surprising if Keir Starmer does not ask about this story, which rather blows apart the claim Sunak made in a major speech last week about Britain being safer under the Tories.

For a preview of what Starmer is likely to say, this is what Shabana Mahmood, the shadow justice secretary, said about the Times story last night.

It beggars belief that police are being told to sit on their hands and ignore crime because the Conservatives have mismanaged the criminal justice system so badly.

Rishi Sunak’s rap sheet now reads: the rushed early release of domestic abusers on to our streets, deliberate delays to trials, and victims waiting years for justice. The public will be absolutely dumbfounded. This cannot go on.

Labour is the party of law and order. We will build the new prisons needed and make Britain’s streets safe.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.25am: Mel Stride, the work and pensions secretary, gives evidence to the Commons work and pensions committee.

9.45am: Paula Vennells, the former Post Office chief executive, gives evidence to the Post Office Horizon inquiry. We are covering that on a separate live blog.

10am: Lucy Frazer, the culture secretary, gives evidence to the Commons culture committee.

Noon: Rishi Sunak faces Keir Starmer at PMQs.

Afternoon: Sunak chairs cabinet.

2pm: Jonathan Brearley, Ofgem’s chief executive, and Tim Jarvis, its director general, give evidence to the Commons energy security and net zero committee.

And David Cameron, the foreign secretary, is in Albania meeting the prime minister, Edi Rama.

If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line (BTL) or message me on X (Twitter). I can’t read all the messages BTL, but if you put “Andrew” in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word. If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use X; I’ll see something addressed to @AndrewSparrow very quickly. I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos (no error is too small to correct). And I find your questions very interesting too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog.

Updated

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