Labour insiders have described the Rutherglen and Hamilton West byelection this week as the biggest vote since the last election, amid notable confidence they will win the seat from the SNP.
The claim has been made in internal discussions before the vote on Thursday, with Keir Starmer’s most senior advisers regarding it as by far the most important of three byelection campaigns currently under way. There will now be “a deluge” of activists and shadow cabinet ministers visiting the seat before polling day.
Officials are unusually optimistic about securing the seat after seeing a significant movement in the “promise rate” recorded by canvassers – marking the number of voters saying they will vote Labour. Canvassers have reported that previously undecided voters now say they will back Starmer.
The constituency has become so important for Starmer’s team because it has offered an opportunity to test the party’s operations in Scotland. They regard a revival there as crucial to the party’s chances of forming a majority government next year.
“It’s huge,” said one figure close to the campaign. “The party has made clear that of all the byelections, this is by far the most important.
“I think that’s right. The underlying figures on support for independence hasn’t changed. But I do think winning on Thursday totally recalibrates where people’s assumptions are when it comes to Scotland. If Labour can win 20 to 25 seats [at the general election], that’s a gamechanger in terms of the chance of a majority.”
Labour officials have been baffled the SNP has not talked more about independence – the issue that has held together its coalition of voters.
Labour’s campaign has been based around insecure work and the cost of living, summed up in the three-word slogan “make work pay”.
The campaign has concentrated on deputy leader Angela Rayner’s “new deal for working people” – a package that includes protections against unfair dismissal, a ban on zero-hours contracts, more flexible working and an end to “fire and rehire” practices.
In reality, the possible margin of victory will also be an important indicator. Labour lost the seat in 2015, won it back in 2017 and lost it again at the last election.
The byelection was called after SNP MP Margaret Ferrier was removed via a recall petition of constituents. She had been found to have breached Covid lockdown rules in 2020. Her majority in 2019 was 5,230, requiring a swing to Labour of about 6.5%.
