Labour has opened a 40-point lead over the Conservatives in London, a new poll revealed on Thursday, underlining the party’s political dominance in the capital.
The results of the survey by YouGov mark Labour’s biggest lead over the Tories in London since the polling company started tracking the city’s voting intentions in 2010.
Although other recent polling by Ipsos suggests Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has recovered ground on Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer in recent weeks, the latest findings from YouGov will add to Tory fears that they are facing defeat in an expected general election next year.
According to the YouGov poll Labour would win 58 per cent of the vote in London if a general election were held tomorrow - a three point rise on a previous poll in February 2022 - compared with 18 per cent for the Conservatives - a fall of five points.
The Liberal Democrats were unchanged on 9 per cent, the Greens were also unchanged at 7 per cent and Reform UK saw a rise of three points to 6 per cent.
Lukas Paleckis, Senior Political Researcher at YouGov said: “This new London Westminster voting intention serves as further evidence that the government’s big push on key issues, such as immigration, is not yet paying off in the ballot box both nationally and in London.
“In fact, this polling gives the Conservatives their lowest vote share in London since YouGov began tracking back in 2010.
“In addressing these figures, the Conservatives may wish to focus on the fact that just 43 per cent of Londoners who voted for them in 2019 say they would vote the same way if there was a general election tomorrow, otherwise London’s marginal Tory seats may be at risk.”
Mr Sunak has steadied the Tory party after it was rocked by Liz Truss’s brief premiership and has won plaudits for his Brexit deal on Northern Ireland trade, moves to restore relations with France, childcare reforms and his plan to tackle the small boats crisis.
But the latest Ipsos poll, reported by the Standard earlier this week, showed the Conservatives are still 23 points behind Labour nationwide as the parties prepare for local elections next month - a crucial litmus test ahead of the general election.
London has long been a stronghold for Labour which won 49 seats in 2019 despite then-leader Jeremy Corbyn recording the worst national result since 1935. In contrast the Tories won just 21 constituencies in the capital. Labour also controls City Hall through Labour Mayor Sadiq Khan.
Although Sir Keir needs to win back traditional Labour voting seats in the north of England and the midlands to seize No10, some of the tightest Tory marginals are in the capital.
These include Felicity Buchan’s Kensington constituency, former minister Theresa Villiers’ north London seat of Chipping Barnet and ex-Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith’s Chingford and Woodford Green constituency.
In Scotland, the arrest on Wednesday of Peter Murrell, the husband of former Scottish National Party leader and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, is also being seen as a further boost to Labour’s chances of winning power at Westminster.
Polling expert Professor John Curtice, from the University of Strathclyde, said Labour had already closed the SNP’s lead north of the border to six points - a margin which could translate into Sir Keir winning 12 to 15 seats in Scotland. At the moment Labour has only one Scottish Westminster MP.
He added on BBC’s Newsnight that Labour would only need a three point lead over the Tories across the rest of the country to win a general election.
