Labour has opened up a huge lead over the Tories among women voters, many of whom are turning to Keir Starmer’s party because they feel financially insecure after 13 years of Conservative rule, a new report says today.
The analysis by Labour Together, a thinktank whose report is based on extensive polling and academic analysis, finds that the financial worries of huge numbers of women voters – particularly those aged under 50 – are persuading many to back Labour and reject the Conservatives.
According to a poll of more than 5,000 people by YouGov, Labour now has a 28-point lead over the Tories among women, compared with a 21-point advantage among men.
The survey found that 60% of women voters who describe themselves as “very worried” about their finances now say they would vote Labour – six times more than would vote Conservative. The only group where the Tories retain a lead is those with no financial worries at all.
The figures represent a remarkable advance for Labour, and a turnaround in public perceptions after decades in which the Conservatives were viewed by most voters as the best stewards of the nation’s finances.
Rosie Campbell, the director of the Global Institute for Women’s Leadership at King’s College, London, who co-authored the report, What Women Want, said that while Labour still had much to do to retain its “vast” lead among women voters up to and into a general election, “concerns about household finances, the NHS and other public services underlie women under 50s’ shift to Labour”.
The findings suggest that Starmer and shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves’s adherence to rigid financial discipline is paying dividends among the very voters the party has identified as crucial targets at the next election.
Earlier this year, Labour Together highlighted “Stevenage Woman” – characterised as disillusioned with politics and worried about household finances and the state of public services – as the key to the next election.
In almost every general election between 1945 and 2015, more women than men voted for the Conservatives, contributing to their dominance and hold on power for long periods.
New Labour’s landslide victories under Tony Blair saw Labour win many more votes than the Tories among both women and men. However, in 1997, Labour was still winning more of its votes from men. Following the 2005 and 2010 elections, where the percentage of men and women voting Labour nearly equalised, David Cameron reopened the gender gap in 2015, with women representing 55% of all Tory voters.
The report says that it was not until 2017 that the Conservatives started to win more of their votes from men than women, and vice versa for Labour – a trend that has been consolidated in the latest polling. Polling over recent years by Opinium for the Observer bears out the trend.
Robert Ford, professor of politics at Manchester University, said: “The growing gender gap likely reflects differences in the social circumstances and values of men and women.
“Women are more exposed to the effects of inflation and public sector cuts – they are more likely to be in part-time and low-paid work; to work in public sector services affected by wage squeezes and strikes; and to bear the burden of care responsibilities and thus face pressure from NHS waiting lists and the crisis in social care.”
Ford added that there were signs that Tory attempts to switch attention away from the economy on to “culture wars” and “woke” issues cut little ice with most women voters.
“Women are less likely to respond to ‘culture war’ issues and campaigns such as ‘stop the boats’ as these identity and cultural battles simply matter less to them. So it is harder for the Conservatives to shift the agenda away from economic insecurities.”
Josh Simons, director of Labour Together, added: “The cost-of-living crisis, health, education. These are the real policy issues that touch peopleʼs lives and decide elections – not the culture wars the Tories are desperately trying to stir up.”
Labour Together’s polling shows that Starmer’s party has vast leads on the very issues that women prioritise, such as health (42 points), social care (41 points) and education (27 points).
The authors sound a note of caution for Labour, however, pointing out that nearly a quarter of women voters have not made up their minds how they will vote, some five million of the total.
