Anas Sarwar could win 24 key Scottish constituencies in the next general election to put Keir Starmer and the Labour party into Downing Street, according to new analysis.
Battleground seats in Glasgow and central Scotland such as Hamilton and Clyde, East Lothian and Midlothian are “within Labour’s grasp” in the fight for the next general election.
The study shows Labour must target are younger, more aspirational voters who make up a large proportion of people living in middle value properties and aim to switch SNP and Green voters, according to the Scottish Fabians.
The study of voting patterns in last year’s council elections suggest Labour would win three seats and be in with a chance in ten others on a zero to four per cent swing.
This increases to 24 by squeezing SNP and Green voters who do not have independence as a priority.
The analysis shows that 20 per cent of SNP voters put Labour as their second party preference, and the authors conclude that persuading around half of these is key to success.
The report, ‘Winning Back the First Red Wall’, has been produced by the Scottish Fabians, which is part of Britain’s oldest political think tank and affiliated to the Labour Party.
Katherine Sangster, of the Scottish Fabians, said: “Labour needs to gain 124 seats across the UK to secure a majority of one, and of the 150 potential target seats, 25 are in Scotland.
“From a starting point of one seat this may seem a tall order, yet the Labour Party cannot form a majority government without winning back seats in Scotland.”
She added: “Under the leadership of Anas Sarwar, Scottish Labour has arrested its decline and made significant progress in the local elections in May, taking second place from the Tories and gaining control of several councils. This achievement in the short space of a year should not be underestimated.
“The seats Labour needs to win all occupy Scotland’s political middle ground and were the former Labour heartlands. It is impossible to win the 25 seats needed for a Labour government without winning votes from the SNP.”
She added: “There is no doubt there is still a mountain to climb but the path to a Labour government is now clear.”
But the report warns that Labour’s recovery to date has largely been in urban communities and with older, lower income communities
Less progress is being made in areas with higher proportions of successful young families, skilled manual workers and students or young professionals who are renting.
The report concludes that Labour must target younger, more aspirational voters who make up a large proportion of people living in middle value properties, perhaps moving to one of the new housing estates there to start or expand their families.
Four Labour could win:
Edinburgh South
Edinburgh South West
East Lothian Coast
West Dunbartonshire
Nine it must:
Glasgow West
Hamilton and Clyde
Glasgow East
Glasgow South West
Glasgow Central
Glasgow South
Rutherglen
Midlothian
Glasgow North
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