Keir Starmer could be heading for the same fate as Olaf Scholz, the recently defeated German chancellor, unless his government is able to deliver on issues such as immigration and welfare, a Labour MP has warned.
Jake Richards, the MP for Rother Valley, said he had seen “uncanny” parallels between Labour and Scholz’s party during a recent fact-finding trip to Germany to study the rise of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD).
Richards is one of a number of Labour MPs from the “red wall” who have been alarmed by the rise in support for Reform UK and in response are urging the party to take tough action on immigration, welfare and crime.
Many are worried that the wave of support for far-right candidates across Europe, including in Germany where Scholz’s Social Democratic party (SPD) came third behind the AfD, could be replicated in the UK at the next election.
“There are uncanny and sort of haunting similarities between the SPD’s predicament and what might happen unless this government delivers,” Richards said. “Scholz ran as a chancellor focused on the transition to a green economy, on growth, on housebuilding – and their vote share essentially halved in four years.”
He added: “The parallels are uncanny. We’ve seen the rise there of the far right, and we’ve got the rise of the populist right here in the UK.”
Richards’ trip to Germany was part of a push by Labour backbenchers in areas where Reform is strong to better understand the threat posed by the rightwing party and to persuade their own colleagues to respond accordingly. The MP spent time watching the SPD campaign in east Germany, where the AfD performed well, and in Berlin talking to politicians and pollsters.
Labour MPs have set up groups to discuss polls and tips on how to tackle Nigel Farage’s party, while the thinktank Labour Together has started researching which political messages work well with Reform voters.
The party has recently begun putting out campaign adverts aping the Reform messaging and style, including ads boasting of a “five-year high in migrant removals”.
Labour’s landslide election victory relied heavily on slim majorities in areas such as Richards’ seat of Rother Valley, where Reform is polling well. Several national polls have put the populist party ahead of Labour and the Conservatives, and Richards is one of many MPs urging the government to be tough on immigration and welfare as a result.
Downing Street is paying attention and the government has already started to outline policies that will resonate with Reform’s core support base. Last week, Starmer announced that foreign aid would be halved to pay for a big rise in defence spending. The work and pensions secretary, Liz Kendall, is expected to set out sweeping cuts to benefits payments in a green paper in the coming weeks.
Starmer’s decision to cut aid has been met with muted criticism from his own party, with many of its newer MPs such as Richards giving the prime minister their backing. “Five, 10 years ago on the centre-left, you couldn’t offer any critique of aid spending or you’d be sort of sent off to Siberia. But now we need to be clear-eyed about this,” Richards said. “This is a problem. People think it’s a problem.”
He added that one of the biggest challenges to defeating Reform was persuading his own colleagues to take seriously what Reform voters were telling them.
“People are right to say you’re not going to out-Reform Reform, but unless you start dealing with these issues head-on, you will lose,” he said.
“People aren’t wrong when they say that they’re worried about immigration. People aren’t wrong when they feel like the welfare state is not fair.”
