A SWATHE of Labour MPs including high-profile Cabinet ministers risk losing their seats over welfare cuts, according to new analysis.
Nearly 200 Labour MPs have a majority smaller than the number of Personal Independence Payments (PIP) claimants in their constituencies – many in northern English “red wall” seats, The Guardian reports.
While not all recipients will be affected by the cuts, more than 80 Labour MPs have majorities smaller than the number of people likely to see their benefits cut.
A campaign against the cuts is being planned, with rebels warning the government that cuts are both “morally wrong” and “electorally foolish”.
Some loyalist MPs have been writing directly to the Prime Minister, feeling that lobbying Chancellor Rachel Reeves (below) is “pointless” and more hardline opponents are planning a major public intervention after the Easter break, according to The Guardian.
The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that the planned changes, which will make it harder for people to qualify for PIP, will result in 52% of claimants losing their entitlements.
Because Scotland is taking over PIP and moving people onto the devolved Adult Disability Payments system, the data does not cover Scottish MPs.
Some high-profile figures who could be affected include Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood, Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips and other junior ministers.
Some are especially vulnerable to challenges from Reform including Barnsley South MP, Stephanie Peacock, Rotherham MP, Sarah Champion, Kingston upon Hull East MP, Karl Turner, and Grimsby MP, Melanie Onn.
Even MPs with sizable majorities could be at risk if PIP claimants abandon Labour, including Grahame Morris, whose 6000 vote majority over Reform in Easington is dwarfed by the number of PIP claimants there, which stands at more than 12,600.
In Huddersfield, Harpreet Uppal has a majority of more than 4500 over the Greens, but 9387 Pip claimants.
The knock-on effect could be even more dangerous if family members and friends of PIP claimants swing against Labour and some of the party’s key seats have large numbers of claimants.
These include Pensions Minister Torsten Bell (above), who represents Swansea West, where one in six people get PIP. In Pat McFadden’s Wolverhampton seat, that figure is one in seven, similar to Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson’s seat.
The data from Disability Poverty Campaign Group has been disseminated among Labour MPs, including to Andy McDonald, the former shadow employment minister.
He told The Guardian: “The government’s welfare reforms disproportionately hit constituents who can least afford it and that is particularly so in the constituencies of many Labour MPs. It poses a real electoral risk.
“We know people on low incomes spend the money they take home in their local communities, so this policy is sucking money out of our local towns. The government should prioritise its anti-poverty strategy before rushing decisions to reform welfare which harm those in need.”
Neil Duncan-Jordan (above), the Labour MP for Poole, added: “It is quite clear from the recent polling by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation that the majority of people who voted Labour in 2024 believe the proposed changes to disability benefits are wrong.
“It’s not only morally wrong to target the poor, it’s also electorally foolish. The government needs to withdraw the green paper and go back to the drawing board.”
Richard Burgon said the data should sound alarm bells for colleagues: “There is no moral case for these cuts to disability benefits. But for Labour MPs not yet persuaded that it’s morally wrong to balance the books on the backs of the disabled, this data will be an electoral wake-up call.
“This cruel policy doesn’t just betray our values, but risks contributing to this being a one-term Labour government. The idea that voters hit by these cuts have ‘nowhere else to go’ is outdated nonsense. They do and so do their friends and family. Other parties are waiting in the wings and in many Labour-held seats with large numbers of disabled people, this policy will help pave the way for Reform.”
Julia Modern, the co-chair of Disability Poverty Campaign Group, said that disabled people stood to lose as much as £10,000, or around 60% of their income and risked plunging 350,000 people into poverty.
She added: “The results suggest Labour is making a colossal political mistake. We urge Labour backbenchers to do the right thing: to speak up and say they will not vote for such cruel and badly thought-through cuts.”
A Department for Work and Pensions spokesperson said: “We have been clear that protecting people in need is a principle we will never compromise on […] Our reforms will unlock work for sick and disabled people who can and want to be in employment […] ensuring they are supported to live with dignity and independence, whilst making sure that everyone who can realise the benefits of work is expected and supported to do so.”
