The New Zealand election is in the balance after a polling swing from right to left, but one thing is clear: Kiwis should brace themselves for the return of Winston Peters.
Wednesday brought a triple treat of polls, including the two considered most authoritative in New Zealand, from broadcasters TVNZ and Newshub, as well as Australian polling company Essential.
All have Labour improving their share of support, but all also have the right bloc in a position to form government after October 14 with a three-party coalition.
That means National leader Chris Luxon will become prime minister of a government including right-wing libertarians ACT and Mr Peters' populists NZ First.
"There's a real surge on and it won't stop now," Mr Peters told Newshub.
Coalition-building is common under New Zealand's proportional representation electoral system, and the 2023 contest is being fought between two blocs of three parties.
On the left, there is the governing Labour and the Greens parties, along with the Maori Party.
On the right, there is National, ACT and NZ First, a grouping which has led for months.
National's preference is to govern just with David Seymour's ACT party, but both parties have slid in the polls through the campaign to the point where they would need the help of Mr Peters.
The 78-year-old's party crashed from parliament at the last poll, dominated by Jacinda Ardern's Labour party which received the best single party vote since WWII.
However, Mr Peters has returned to political relevance by campaigning across New Zealand as an anti-government force, pledging not to deal with Labour again.
He is promising royal commissions into the COVID-19 pandemic management and the media, an improved deal for seniors, while also dabbling in anti-transgender and anti-climate change conspiracy theories.
Earlier in the campaign, Mr Luxon said he was willing to go into government with NZ First, but only as a last resort.
On the weekend, National then raised the prospect of a second election should it not be able to strike a deal with Mr Peters, who scoffed at the prospect.
"That's sort of panic and scaremongering was never going to work. I'm horrified that their inexperience thought they could do that," he said.
In two of the three polls, National went backwards, including a mighty 4.6 per cent stumble in the Newshub poll.
Mr Luxon insisted his party didn't peak too early, saying they had run a "fantastic campaign".
"We've got great momentum on the ground I can tell you," he said.
Earlier in the campaign, National boasted a 10-point lead over Labour in major polls, but Wednesday's polls put the divide at now nine per cent (TVNZ), seven (Newshub) and four (Essential).
Most importantly, the gap between the left and right blocs in the three polls are eight per cent (TVNZ), five (Newshub), and seven (Essential).
"(Voters are) swinging in behind Labour in the last few days of the campaign and I think our numbers are going to continue to go up," Mr Hipkins said.
"It's now very close between a Labour-led government and a National-led government."
Mr Hipkins also enjoyed the support of his predecessor Jacinda Ardern on Wednesday, who posted a Facebook live video.
"The Labour Party has had two terms in office. Long enough to make progress - not long enough to finish the job. And our country needs them to finish the job," she said.
The Greens remain on track to record their best party vote in their history, but unless the left bloc continues to increase its share in the final days, it will boast a record caucus in opposition.
TVNZ's preferred prime minister polling puts both Mr Luxon and Mr Hipkins on 25 per cent, while Newshub's numbers have Mr Luxon narrowly ahead - 23.6 per cent to 22.2.
NEW ZEALAND POLITICAL POLL: NEWSHUB-REID RESEARCH
National: 34.5 per cent (down 4.6 per cent) - likely 43 MPs in parliament
Labour: 27.5 (up one) - 35 MPs
Greens: 14.9 (up 0.7) - 19 MPs
ACT: 8.8 (steady) - 11 MPs
NZ First: 6.8 (up 1.6) - nine MPs
Maori Party: 2.7 (up 0.5) - three MPs
NEW ZEALAND POLITICAL POLL: TVNZ-VERIAN
National: 37 per cent (up one per cent) - likely 47 MPs in parliament
Labour: 28 (up two) - 35 MPs
Greens: 14 (up one) - 17 MPs
ACT: 9 (down one) - 11 MPs
NZ First: 6 (steady) - eight MPs
Maori Party: 2 (steady) - two MPs
NEW ZEALAND POLITICAL POLL: GUARDIAN-ESSENTIAL
National: 34 per cent (down 0.5 per cent) - likely 44 MPs in parliament
Labour: 30.3 (up 3.4) - 39 MPs
Greens: 10.6 (down 0.4) - 14 MPs
NZ First: 8.2 (up 2.2) - 11 MPs
ACT: 7.9 (down 2.4) - 10 MPs
Maori Party: 1.9 (down 0.6) - two MPs
