Keir Starmer’s caution risks damaging his chance of winning the next election, according to key figures from Tony Blair’s 1997 campaign who warn the Labour leader is in danger of learning the wrong lessons from his predecessor’s victory.
Some of those who were core to Blair’s election win told the Guardian they believed Labour was not yet ready for government, and needed to set out a much clearer policy platform to win voters’ trust.
The comments come as Starmer prepares to head to Liverpool for what is likely to be the last party conference before an election and the most important of Starmer’s political career.
Many in the party hope he will use his speech on Tuesday to define himself more clearly in voters’ minds and set out dividing lines with the Conservatives on a range of issues such as completing HS2 and eliminating the two-child benefit cap.
Alastair Campbell, Blair’s former director of communications, said: “You want policy, and you want your policies to be known about, and you want to be able to defend them and to argue them.
“I sometimes worry that the Labour party today doesn’t. I don’t often get that sense of that sort of relentless, restless, obsessive attention to detail focusing on everything that you need to focus on …
“[In 1996 and 1997] we were not happy if we were not making the news and we weren’t making the weather and we weren’t actually being attacked. Because sometimes being attacked is the only way that you can get out there and make your case.”
Other senior Blairites, including Charlie Falconer and David Miliband, urged the Labour leader not to shy away from promising bold economic policies in particular.
Peter Mandelson, Labour’s campaign director for the 1997 election, and a close confidant of Starmer, said he thought Labour needed to do more policy work before it was ready for government.
He said: “Do I think the Labour party under Keir Starmer is ready for government? Well actually, I don’t. But then the election isn’t going to take place tomorrow or the day after. They have another year.”
Lord Mandelson added: “I just implore people [in Labour] to realise, not just that they shouldn’t be complacent … but just how much detailed, hard slog and work is involved in preparing the programme of government. Not just a vision, but a real programme of government policies that flow from it that you have to have in place if you’re going to hit the ground running on day one after that election.”
The comments were made as part of a two-part podcast for the Guardian’s Today in Focus, which examines what Labour did in the year before it took power in 1997, and whether the current Labour party is set to replicate that success. It is due to be broadcast on Monday and Tuesday next week.
As Labour members assemble in Liverpool for one of the most important conferences in the party’s recent history, the party is about 17 points ahead in the polls, enough for a landslide victory if repeated at a general election.
Starmer has been scaling back or abandoning a range of Labour policies, including dropping a pledge to abolish tuition fees and delaying the full implementation of a £28bn green fund. He has promised not to raise income tax or wealth taxes to pay for higher public spending, and dropped plans to strip private schools of their charitable status.
After Labour lost the recent byelection in Uxbridge after a campaign that centred on the party’s clean-air policies in London, Starmer said: “We are doing something very wrong if policies put forward by the Labour party end up on each and every Tory leaflet.”
Starmer has also been taking unofficial advice from many of those integral to the 1997 election win, including Blair and Mandelson. Some are comparing Starmer’s approach with that of Blair in 1996 and early 1997, when he was described as being like a museum curator carrying a priceless Ming vase across a slippery floor.
Starmer told the BBC last month: “I talk to Tony and Gordon [Brown], particularly about the period sort of 95, 96 into 97 – not actually about specific policies, because that’s too long ago, but about the pace, the intensity, the sort of preparation that we need, the mindset if you like.”
Campbell argued Starmer’s caution did not reflect what Blair did during that period, however. “I was quite happy if the Tories were putting up policies on their leaflets because it gave us an opportunity to argue them,” he said.
“One of the big ones I remember was the minimum wage. They had this big attack on the minimum wage – a minimum wage will cost you your job, a minimum wage will cost 2m jobs – and we were able to go out and, and argue against that.”
Some are warning Starmer to be bolder on tax and spending than Blair was in 1997, given the different economic backdrop. By May 1997, the country had experienced 19 successive quarters without the economy shrinking, and inflation was below 3%.
Lord Falconer, a former Labour minister and Blair’s former housemate, said: “[Labour in 1997] said they would match the Tories’ tax and spend position, which is fine when the economy is not the issue. But where the economy and the cost of living is the issue, simply to mimic the Conservatives may not offer enough change to the public.
“You’ve got to have some convincing explanation about what you’re going to do differently on the economy from the Conservative party.”
Miliband, Blair’s former head of policy, said the party in 1997 was “radical, as well as credible”.
But he also argued Labour was in danger of focusing too much on trying to repeat 1997 and should instead look to 1974 for historical lessons. Labour won two elections that year against the backdrop of high inflation, industrial strife and rising unemployment.
Miliband said: “What’s clear is that ‘steady as she goes’ wasn’t enough in 74. It wasn’t enough politically, and it wasn’t enough economically … It can’t just be the 90s that is the point of reference.”
Starmer’s office did not respond to a request to comment. But speaking to ITV News Granada on Thursday, the Labour leader addressed concerns he was being too cautious.
“I’ve had enough of politicians who walk around a problem screaming about it but don’t fix it,” he said. “I want to fix problems and I work with other people to do that.”
