Labor candidate Peree Watson says her party will win government if it ends the Nationals' stranglehold on Upper Hunter at the NSW election in March.
Ms Watson, the daughter of the late Hunter mining union stalwart Mick Watson, says she will start knocking on voters' doors from Monday as she begins her campaign to flip the state's third most marginal seat.
The Nationals' Dave Layzell won the 2021 Upper Hunter byelection with an increased 5.8-point margin, but a subsequent boundary redistribution last year cut his notional advantage to just 0.5 percentage points.
The redraw has put the sprawling electorate in Labor's sights as it attempts to end the Coalition's 12-year grip on government.
"I'm in this to win it," Ms Watson said on Tuesday.
"I think I'll have to swing it, even though it's notionally under 1 per cent.
"I think we believe that, if we win Upper Hunter, we win government. If regional seats fall to Labor, then that gets us into government."
The byelection featured a bumper cast of 13 candidates and received a lot of attention from then premier Gladys Berejiklian.
Ms Watson said it was hard to translate that result into a clear picture of voting intentions in 2023, especially given a huge number of votes, 14,338, were exhausted in the preference count.
"It's a very unusual seat in that Dave won it with a 31 per cent primary vote, the lowest in the state," she said.
"I think we'll have to swing the primary vote by probably 5 per cent off the 2019 election numbers."
The redraw deposited about 2800 voters from rural parts of the Cessnock electorate and 6500 from Maitland into Upper Hunter, a huge win for Labor.
Upper Hunter gained the entire town of Branxton, a Labor stronghold, in the redistribution and lost 5000 rural voters to Tamworth, Dubbo and Bathurst.
Ms Watson said she expected the Nationals to "throw everything" at the seat, but she anticipates receiving financial backing from Labor headquarters.
"I think the National party have had a fairly good show at it. They've been in power for all living history.
"I think it's about time we had a different voice, a different face, and how about a different sex as well.
"We've always been represented by a man in Upper Hunter. Maybe we can give a woman a go as well."
Mining union official Jeff Drayton won only 21 per cent of the primary vote for Labor in last year's byelection.
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party candidate Sue Gilroy, who won 22 per cent of the primary vote in 2019 and 12 per cent last year, quit the party in December and will not contest the election.
One Nation's Dale McNamara won 12.3 per cent of the primary in 2021.
Mr Layzell made headlines in November when he threatened to cross the floor and vote against the Coalition if it did not back moves to allow Port of Newcastle to build a container terminal.
Ms Watson expected the election to be fought on grassroots issues rather than broader matters such as the port and the future of coal.
"I look at the bigger issues of what services we are lacking in the Upper Hunter.
"We're still talking about how much money we're going to be paying the poor landholders up at Singleton for a bypass that's been promised forever.
"I don't know that too many people were paying attention to the legislation on the port. I think there's more pressing issues, like the fact you can't have a baby at Muswellbrook or Scone."
The major parties have tried to out-coal each other at recent elections, but Ms Watson said the "conversation has changed" with Labor's win in the federal election.
"Rather than us discussing whether we believe in climate change, whether we think anything needs to change, when we look at the future, how can our region best be served by any new industries?" she said.
"Coalmines aren't going anywhere any time soon. We need to also be looking at every other opportunity that's available and grasping that as best we can.
"If we're going to be making an impact and changing people's lives in the Upper Hunter, we need to be talking about more than just coal."
Ms Watson said it would be hard for political candidates to ignore the plethora of renewable energy projects proposed for the Upper Hunter, including wind and solar farms, pumped hydro and large storage batteries.
"The interesting thing is the community is talking about it, so you can't just pretend it doesn't exist.
"If we're not talking about it, we're just hiding our head in the sand."
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