Dan Andrews continues to exert a significant influence from beyond the political grave in Victoria. He shares responsibility — with Jacinta Allan — for the absolute flogging Victorian Labor took in the weekend by-election in Werribee, where its candidate copped a nearly 17% fall in primary support, and remains in danger of losing the seat. But such was Andrews’ dominance at the 2022 election that even with a statewide version of the monster two-party preferred swing of nearly 10% on display on Saturday, the Victorian Liberals would fall short of a majority.
It aptly sums up politics in our second biggest state: an awful, rotten and shopworn Labor government — the worst in the country by a mile — but with a divided, far-right rabble of an opposition that for a decade effectively gave Victorians no choice but to back Labor.
Meanwhile, the Greens lost Prahran, continuing a run of electoral failures that can be chalked up to the far-left claque now running the show within that party. As Australia’s third political force, with a reliable base of support of around 12% of the electorate, the Greens should have been first cab off the rank to take advantage of the growing disillusionment with the major parties. But its shift to the hard left has instead alienated voters, and it is suffering the consequences. Future historians of the Greens might see Adam Bandt’s leadership as the moment when the party blew its chance to seriously compete with the big parties.
The irony in Prahran was, it was the lack of a Labor candidate delivering preferences that killed the Greens. The Greens predate upon Labor — Bandt says he’s all about fighting Peter Dutton, but does so by targeting Labor seats — but they need Labor to compete against the conservative vote.
In Werribee, Labor managed 28.7% of the primary vote; the Liberals, 29%. The matching (non-)achievement is symbolic. Local independent Paul Hopper, in his second outing in the seat, picked up nearly 15% of the vote; the Victorian Socialists cracked 7%; the potheads managed 5.5%; Family First doubled its vote. These are the numbers of an electorate unhappy with the major parties.
That augurs well for independents at the coming federal election, to be fought by the major parties on, as William Bowe’s BludgerTrack compilation shows, almost exactly the same polling numbers as in Victoria, although Labor federally hasn’t sunk as low on its primary vote as in Victoria. As the Hopper experience shows, independents who’ve already had a previous run in the electorate can start with a base vote on which to build, using unhappiness with the major parties and find themselves in strong double figures very quickly. And there are a number of independents, led by Nicolette Boele in Bradfield in NSW, who will be in exactly that position.
The results leave Victorians in an invidious position — governed by an unpopular, spendthrift government that relied heavily on Daniel Andrews’ political smarts, and with a political alternative that is now relatively united compared to the last decade but which faces a huge challenge to regain seats, and which remains riddled with toxic far-right figures hellbent on purging moderates from the party. The independent option could look very attractive to voters at next year’s state election.
Have something to say about this article? Write to us at letters@crikey.com.au. Please include your full name to be considered for publication in Crikey’s Your Say. We reserve the right to edit for length and clarity.
