LABOR will almost certainly lose its stranglehold on Newcastle as election results point to the party emerging from this election with five of the 13 seats on council.
Incoming Newcastle lord mayor Ross Kerridge faces negotiations with a handful of blocs when he takes the reins after Labor's previous majority took a hit amid a swing in the votes.
The Tally Room independent election analyst Ben Raue said there is no doubt the Newcastle council race is the state's "closest" and "most interesting" to watch.
Mr Raue has called nine of the 13 seats on Newcastle council, with postal votes still yet to be counted from each of the four wards.
Three candidates are elected to represent each ward in Newcastle, with a total of 13 councillors including the lord mayor.
In Ward 1, Our Newcastle mayoral candidate Ross Kerridge is due to take the top job after incumbent Labor lord mayor Nuatali Nelmes conceded defeat earlier this week.
When Cr Kerridge is formally declared lord mayor, his 23.1 per cent of the ward one vote will flow to the number two candidate on his ticket, Peter Gittins.
"I'm probably going to call that," Mr Raue said.
"They didn't have Newcastle pre-poll results [on Wednesday evening] and now they do, and he [Dr Kerridge] did really well on it.
"He won the pre-poll, so I'm willing to call that he's won his seat on council."
Labor Ward 1 candidate and incumbent deputy mayor Declan Clausen will be back for another term with 31.7 per cent of first preference votes.
Ward 1 covers Newcastle, Carrington, Stockton, Maryville, Tighes Hill, Mayfield and Warabrook.
Mr Gittins and Cr Clausen will likely be joined by incumbent Greens councillor Charlotte McCabe.
In Ward 2, Mr Raue said he is confident Labor candidate Paige Johnson and incumbent Liberal Cr Jenny Barrie will both take seats on the council.
Ms Johnson has made history as the first openly transgender woman to be elected to public office in the state.
In a Facebook statement, Ms Johnson said while her focus is on local government, she understands what the victory means for the trans and gender diverse community.
The third spot hangs in the balance between Our Newcastle Independent candidate Leisha Parkinson and Greens candidate Joel Pringle.
"It's too close to say," Mr Raue said.
"I think this is the kind of one where it will be really useful to see what the below the line votes do, because if one or the other does really well on the below the line votes that could change things up."
As of Thursday, Mr Pringle was leading by about 250 votes but there are still 3000 below the line votes yet to be counted.
Mr Raue said he does not believe incumbent Labor Cr Carol Duncan will be re-elected.
Ward 2 covers Adamstown, Hamilton and Merewether.
In Ward 3, Mr Raue is confident incumbent Labor lord mayor Nuatali Nelmes will return for another term, along with Our Newcastle candidate Mark Brooker and Greens candidate Sinead Francis-Coan.
Liberal incumbent Cr Callum Pull looks likely to return for another term in Ward 4 joined by incumbent Labor Cr Elizabeth Adamczyk.
The tug-of-war for the last seat in the ward looks to be between Labor incumbent Deahnna Richardson or Our Newcastle Independent candidate Tahlia Kelso.
"Almost all the preferences are from the Greens, so if those preferences favour Labor, Labor win, if the preferences favour Our Newcastle, they could win but they would need a strong flow," Mr Raue said.
"It's probably more likely that they would flow to Deahnna."
It's likely Labor will hold five seats on council, losing the majority it held this term with six Labor councillors plus the lord mayor.
Mr Raue said those five seats are "nothing to sneeze at".
"They can be outvoted, but not super easily," he said.
Last term, Labor held six seats on Newcastle council in addition to lord mayor Cr Nelmes.
