Peter Dutton has said his government, if elected, would slash Australia’s net overseas migration levels by 100,000 – recommitting to the figure after months of confusion as the Coalition appeared to walk away from such a plan.
The Labor government claimed Dutton’s plan – if it amounted to a further cut on top of its current forecast – amounted to “savage cuts” which would affect skilled workers crucial to construction, aged care and tourism.
Outside a Bluescope steel factory in Sydney’s western suburbs on Wednesday, as the opposition leader released long-awaited economic analysis of his proposed east coast gas reservation, Dutton said that as prime minister, he would move to slash the net overseas migration (Nom) figure from 260,000 to about 160,000 “straight away”.
Net overseas migration counts the difference between those leaving and those entering the country, and includes people on temporary visas. Nom spiked post-Covid, due to pent-up demand for entry to Australia and lower than usual departure numbers.
Permanent migration refers to those given long-term visas, including skilled migrants and family visas.
Dutton has promised to cut migration levels and cap international students, which the Coalition has blamed for the country’s housing crisis. But business groups have raised concerns about knock-on effects of skills shortages with such steep cuts, as well as economic downturn.
“I’m not worried about that,” Dutton said on Wednesday when asked about potential backlash from business. “I’ve got the first and foremost interest in mind, and that is to get young Australians into housing.”
Dutton, speaking after the Sky News leaders’ debate on Tuesday night – where numerous mentions went to migration and migrants – said he remained committed to slashing net migration.
“We can reduce the Nom by 100,000,” the Liberal leader said.
“Straight away. When we get into government, we can deal with Labor’s mess.”
The latest federal budget predicted the Nom would drop again to more usual numbers of 260,000 in 2025-26, then settle at a lower 230,000 a year from then.
The home affairs minister, Tony Burke, said the projected 2025-26 drop would already be a reduction of 120,000 from the latest data.
“Is Peter Dutton proposing to cut Nom by less than the government is proposing?” Burke said in a statement on Wednesday.
“Or is he sticking with his 160,000 overall [Nom] target, which would require savage cuts to the people we need with the skills to build homes, work in aged care and keep our tourism industry going?”
In his 2024 budget reply, Duttonfirst promised to cut permanent migration by 25% from 2024-25 – from 185,00 to 140,000 – for the first two years, followed by a step back up to 150,000 and then to 160,000, over the next two.
Shortly after that speech, Dutton also committed in radio interviews to cut the Nom to 160,000, – a cut of 38% from 260,000. But he had since appeared to back away from the commitment, declining to stand by those Nom targets.
In his own 2024 post-budget address, the shadow treasurer, Angus Taylor, gave different Nom targets than Dutton, adding to confusion about the Coalition’s goals. Labor at the time accused the Coalition of confusing permanent and Nom numbers.
Asked on Wednesday what figure he would cut the Nom intake to, Dutton said “it depends on what the Nom figure is at the moment”. But asked specifically if he would seek to cut it from 260,000 to 160,000, he responded in the affirmative.
“If you look at the prime minister, [Labor has] all sorts of wild projections in relation to Nom. None of them achieved … their migration targets always blow out,” Dutton said.
“You wonder why we’ve got a housing crisis when [Labor have] stopped the supply of housing.”
The Business Council of Australia expressed concern “about any proposal that reduces temporary skilled migration and undermines our international education sector, through cuts to net overseas migration”.
“These proposals [capping international student numbers and cutting Nom] could negatively impact our economy, compound our existing skills shortages and make it harder to invest in new projects and grow businesses,” CEO Bran Black said in a Wednesday statement.
He called for a migration strategy that “underpinned by robust housing and infrastructure planning, that attracts highly skilled workers”.
“Australia’s migration program should be geared towards helping address our growing skills shortages and backing in our international education sector as the country’s fourth largest export.”
